Rumour: UK Labour Leadership Coup is Over

[Genersis]

Rumour is that the attempt by Labour MP's to force their leader, Jeremy Corbyn, to resign, is over.(Will be a story on it in tomorrows Telegraph I think?)

I'm not sure what that means.

Either the rebels have settled on splitting.(10%)
Or settled on having a leadership contest, losing, and then splitting.(50%)
Or settled on having a leadership contest, losing, and then not splitting.(5%)
Or have found a way of keeping Corbyn off the leadership ballot. (20%)
Or will put this behind them and try and improve unity.(1%)
Or are going to find(or have found?) a way to make Corbyn unpopular with the members, then challenge his leadership, winning, then not splitting.(14%)
(% of likeliness, IMO)

I wonder what they'll opt for...

 

[Sultan Of Swing]

Hoping they split. Time for Labour to fall apart.

 

[Genersis]

They're a broader party than the Tories have ever been.
Too broad.

I'd be fine with a split, if it weren't for the fact that the electoral system punishes similar parties for being divided.
They should really stick together until electoral reform can be implemented.

That the MP's supporting the split justify such ideas with fears over electability, when a split would make both the resulting parties unelectable for at least a decade(probably decades), would be funny if it weren't so sad.

 

[Oafman]

More people (200,000) have joined the Labour Party in the last 2 weeks, than are members of all other political parties combined. It now has more members than it has had since the second world war.

The PLP are laughably claiming that many of these people have joined to convince Corbyn to quit! The reality is otherwise.

Or will put this behind them and try and improve unity.(1%)

Not sure why you've attached such a high probability to this. I guess you were rounding up!

 

[Genersis]

More people (200,000) have joined the Labour Party in the last 2 weeks, than are members of all other political parties combined. It now has more members than it has had since the second world war.

The PLP are laughably claiming that many of these people have joined to convince Corbyn to quit! The reality is otherwise.

If that's what they're saying, then I guess they've settled on losing a membership contest.
I've also seen it said that it's now the largest left of centre party in the world. An interesting thought.

Not sure why you've attached such a high probability to this. I guess you were rounding up!

Who can bother with decimal percentages these days.

 

[Genersis]

Hmm, with new information coming to light(which I should of probably been aware of sooner), I am going to tweak the probability percentages:

The rebels have settled on splitting.(10%)
Or settled on having a leadership contest, losing, and then splitting.(35%)
Or settled on having a leadership contest, losing, and then not splitting.(5%)
Or have found a way of keeping Corbyn off the leadership ballot. (35%)
Or will put this behind them and try and improve unity.(1%)
Or are going to find(or have found?) a way to make Corbyn unpopular with the members, then challenge his leadership, winning, then not splitting.(14%)

After hearing about the previous leadership challenges in ye old days, and that the leader was required to collect signatures from MP's for those challenges, has made this method of removing him seem more likely to me. Before hearing this, I wasn't aware there was a historical precedent in favour of the leader having to re-qualify for the ballot.

 

[Genersis]

Angela Eagle announced her bid for leader today. Not that it's garnered much attention.
Seems to be running on the platform of "I'm not Corbyn" and "I'm the only one who can save the party".
What amazing vision.
A clear change of direction and popular policies well received across the party and membership...will hopefully be in one of her future speeches? Or is that really going to be her whole pitch?

Owen Smith is going to announce tomorrow. Apparently the delays in starting the challenge is partially because Eagle and Smith couldn't agree on which one of them should stand; seems they never settled this discussion.
Maybe he will try and sell himself as leader. But I have a sneaking suspicion he might just copy Eagle's approach.

If none of the challengers are willing to court the new members who supported Corbyn, promise to take the party in a direction distinct from the pre-Corbyn party, and also distinct from Corbyn; with popular policies and at least a commitment to anti-austerity, they will lose.
The new pro-Corbyn members represent a demographic the party needs the support of if it is ever going to build a broad enough coalition to win a general election, that the ABC candidates seem indifferent, or even opposed to seeking such support is troubling.

I only hope some competent candidate with broad enough appeal to actually claim to be a "unity" candidate somewhat justifiably materialises soon. I wont hold my breath.

 

[Genersis]

Been looking into candidates with the capacity to beat Corbyn.
I could probably whittle down the list some more, but this is what I've got as of now:

Debbie Abrahams
David Anderson
Peter Dowd
Margaret Greenwood
Louise Haigh
Sue Hayman
Imran Hussain
Gerald Jones
David Lammy
Clive Lewis
Rob Marris
Rachael Maskell
Andy McDonald
Liz McInnes
Ian Mearns
Madeleine Moon
Grahame Morris
Kate Osamor
Paula Sherriff
Tulip Siddiq(My current favourite after minor reading)
Jo Stevens

None of them are really recognisable to me other than David Lammy and Clive Lewis.
Will do some more reading into them in the coming days I suppose...
Would the PLP be against a leader who voted confidence in Corbyn or are in his Shadow Cabinet I wonder...there's probably notable cross over.

 

[Genersis]

General political zeitgeist surounding the NEC secret ballot suggests Corbyn is a goner.
Still nothing official yet.

If this is really how they want to interpret the rules, then Corbyn may as well resign before seeking nominations. At least then he wouldn't need as many.

 

[Oafman]

General political zeitgeist surounding the NEC secret ballot suggests Corbyn is a goner.
Still nothing official yet.

If this is really how they want to interpret the rules, then Corbyn may as well resign before seeking nominations. At least then he wouldn't need as many.

The decision to hold a secret ballot does not bode well.

If Corbyn does not end up on the ballot we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of the Labour Party

 

[Genersis]

The decision to hold a secret ballot does not bode well.

If Corbyn does not end up on the ballot we could be witnessing the beginning of the end of the Labour Party

Eh, a split is less likely this way. The left will likely return to the back benches and finish shrivelling away, any future left wingers avoided, the current ones blacklisted or deselected. This assumes Momentum and the new members don't go ballistic and pull off something crazy.

But I suspect they will lose between 5 to 10% of their support.
Who knows, maybe they don't need to be a big tent party of the left, and can just nab Tory and UKIP votes instead.

Best of luck to them, I might vote in the next leadership as a supporter to hopefully give them a nudge in the right direction; but I probably wont be sticking with the Labour party in the long run.

 

[Picky Picky]

Eh, a split is less likely this way. The left will likely return to the back benches and finish shrivelling away, any future left wingers avoided, the current ones blacklisted or deselected. This assumes Momentum and the new members don't go ballistic and pull off something crazy.

But I suspect they will lose between 5 to 10% of their support.
Who knows, maybe they don't need to be a big tent party of the left, and can just nab Tory and UKIP votes instead.

Best of luck to them, I might vote in the next leadership as a supporter to hopefully give them a nudge in the right direction; but I probably wont be sticking with the Labour party in the long run.

And that, it seems to me, is what is adrift with the "three quid a throw" arrangement.

 

[Genersis]

And that, it seems to me, is what is adrift with the "three quid a throw" arrangement.

The whole point originally was to attract people who would consider voting Labour to have some influence on leader elections.

That was me. And might still be me, I don't know.
With the broken electoral system, I'll probably end up voting for them forever anyway, and as such I do feel like I should be entitled to have a say in it's direction.

 

[Genersis]

Corbyn will be on the ballot. Majority of four.
Hmm.
Not sure how to feel.
Don't want to vote for Corbyn as he can't lead a party that doesn't want to be lead by him.
Don't want to vote Eagle. Not a fan of her record. Not a fan of her only policies currently being "I'm not Corbyn", "I'm working class" and "I can unite the party and get us our this dark time."
And especially not keen on her involvement in attempts to force Corbyn's resignation and keep him off the ballot.

Owen Smith might run...pass.

Is there anyone else? Please?

 

[Goonie]

Corbyn will be on the ballot. Majority of four.
Hmm.
Not sure how to feel.
Don't want to vote for Corbyn as he can't lead a party that doesn't want to be lead by him.
Don't want to vote Eagle. Not a fan of her record. Not a fan of her only policies currently being "I'm not Corbyn", "I'm working class" and "I can unite the party and get us our this dark time."
And especially not keen on her involvement in attempts to force Corbyn's resignation and keep him off the ballot.

Owen Smith might run...pass.

Is there anyone else? Please?

Tricky isn't it. I'm not a fan of Corbyn, he defines the phrase unelectable. But this attempt to deny him a place on the ballot, with a secret vote, left a singularly unpleasant taste.

 

[Oafman]

Don't want to vote for Corbyn as he can't lead a party that doesn't want to be lead by him.

If Corbyn wins again, he will have been elected twice in one year! Surely the plotting has to stop, once his mandate is reaffirmed? The PLP will have to show some professionalism, get behind him, and give him a general election. If it goes badly, they can then ask the membership to consider alternatives.

I'm not a fan of Corbyn, he defines the phrase unelectable

But he does keep winning elections. Perhaps un-prime ministerial is more accurate?

But this attempt to deny him a place on the ballot, with a secret vote, left a singularly unpleasant taste.

I'm hugely relieved it failed. It would have been really ugly.

 

[Goonie]

If Corbyn wins again, he will have been elected twice in one year! Surely the plotting has to stop, once his mandate is reaffirmed? The PLP will have to show some professionalism, get behind him, and give him a general election. If it goes badly, they can then ask the membership to consider alternatives.

But he does keep winning elections. Perhaps un-prime ministerial is more accurate?

I'm hugely relieved it failed. It would have been really ugly.

You've got to remember the labour electorate is different from that in a general election, what with Ed Milibands reforms opening the doors.

One problem is that he is comrade Corbyn, not leader Corbyn. Like Miliband he fails the can you picture him in the same room as Putin test.

 

[Goonie]

Genius. Yes Corbyns on the ballot paper, but none of the new members who have joined since Jan 12th will be allowed to vote, unless they pay £25.

 

[Genersis]

If Corbyn wins again, he will have been elected twice in one year! Surely the plotting has to stop, once his mandate is reaffirmed? The PLP will have to show some professionalism, get behind him, and give him a general election. If it goes badly, they can then ask the membership to consider alternatives.
...

They will never back him.
They'd rather lose elections as New Labour than under Corbyn, which is their decision I guess.
Apparently Corbyn will doom the party to irrelevance should he lead during a GE, as if New Labours views are popular.

The membership wants a change in direction, and the PLP is reluctant to, or perhaps unable to provide such.

 

[Goonie]

Astonishing, the retrospective disenfranchisement of 130,000 labour members, was carried out in the AOB section of the meeting, was not on the agenda, and occurred after Corbyn and his allies had left.

I can already see the lawyers preparing the briefs

.