Reopen America or Save American Lives?

[PJ76]

Economists warn that keeping the U.S. closed will result in a crisis far worse than the Great Depression. But health experts warn to reopen the U.S. would expose millions of Americans to the Coronavirus.

 

[sfs]

Economists warn that keeping the U.S. closed will result in a crisis far worse than the Great Depression

Which economists have said that?

 

[grasping the after wind]

Economists warn that keeping the U.S. closed will result in a crisis far worse than the Great Depression which would be catastrophic. But health experts warn to reopen the U.S. would expose millions of Americans to the Coronavirus.

We don't actually know which course of action would cost the most lives. I would wager though that at the moment most Americans would opt for following the health experts advice. We have some reasonable projections for the corona virus but only speculation on a complete breakdown of the economy. The lives taken by extreme economic hardship aren't as easily quantified as those taken by a disease.

 

[PJ76]

Which economists have said that?

Analysts anticipates 'worst' financial crisis since 1929 amid fears of global recession due to the Coronavirus. This is an unprecedented situation and the worst crisis to hit financial markets since the Great Depression.

CNBC

 

[PJ76]

The lives taken by extreme economic hardship aren't as easily quantified as those taken by a disease.

"The cure can't be worse than the disease."

Larry Kudlow, Director of National Economic Council

 

[GospelS]

Not just America. The situation is same in many other countries or rest of the world if I may say. If America goes into great depression/catastrophic crisis, then how about underprivileged countries and the other parts of this world. Still, I'm not much worried. My treasure is in heaven. I think the world leaders will push for a new global economy system and this in turn will change a lot of systems.

 

[Basil the Great]

A late friend of mine used to quote an old comedian who often said, "Your money or your life". It seems like the USA is on the brink of having to choose between money and human life. As the ghostie Crusader said in the 3rd Indiana Jones film, "choose wisely".

 

[sfs]

Analysts anticipates 'worst' financial crisis since 1929 amid fears of global recession due to the Coronavirus. This is an unprecedented situation and the worst crisis to hit financial markets since the Great Depression.

The worst since the Great Depression is quite different than "far worse than the Great Depression", which is what you wrote above. Which is it?

 

[PJ76]

The worst since the Great Depression is quite different than "far worse than the Great Depression", which is what you wrote above. Which is it?

"Coronavirus economic damage could be worse than the Great Depression."

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at NYU Stern

 

[sfs]

"Coronavirus economic damage could be worse than the Great Depression."

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at NYU Stern

Thank you.

 

[sfs]

"Coronavirus economic damage could be worse than the Great Depression."

Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at NYU Stern

Do note, however, that in that interview Roubini does not present the choice you propose above. He says that if we don't curb the outbreak, we'll have the conditions for a great depression.

ETA: In fact, he specifically says that the idea of reopening things after two weeks doesn't make any sense. In short, this economist at least thinks that the best way to save the economy is also the best way to save lives.

 

[redleghunter]

Economists warn that keeping the U.S. closed will result in a crisis far worse than the Great Depression which would be catastrophic. But health experts warn to reopen the U.S. would expose millions of Americans to the Coronavirus.

I think his point is we need to evaluate daily and weekly. That Easter would be the earliest such a decision would be made and that the governors who have the pulse on their various regions make the call.

Governor Cuomo of NY said similar this morning. There are parts of NY unaffected or well contained and he would like to open those areas up again.

So this is not a dichotomy of either or, but both. Meaning those areas which need to be contained continue to do so and we protect the vulnerable in EVERY community.

That is what both Trump and Cuomo opined on today.

 

[PJ76]

He says that if we don't curb the outbreak, we'll have the conditions for a great depression.

Isn't the only way to stop an epidemic is to quarantine and keep it under lockdown?

 

[Hazelelponi]

We can handle a shorter term lock down, it's only long term that would be unmanageable so we do the short term plan, see if it's helping and go from there.

But people are right in that a lockdown even on this level isn't sustainable for long. At one point we may have to choose the economy, as that affects more people in the long run.

However, with this level of panic and fear, life wouldn't get back to normal for a period of time even after restrictions are opened up again without something fairly major happening with the virus itself.

 

[PJ76]

"I am glad the debate is now balanced and the understanding of the mid-to longer-term health consequences as a result of suicides, domestic violence, deprivation, and lives of poverty as a result of a prolonged lock down are being taken into account."

Senator Bob Corker

 

[jacks]

Isn't the only way to stop an epidemic is to quarantine and keep it under lockdown?

Most countries say yes, but Sweden is trying a different approach. It will be interesting to see if it works.

 

[dogs4thewin]

We can handle a shorter term lock down, it's only long term that would be unmanageable so we do the short term plan, see if it's helping and go from there.

But people are right in that a lockdown even on this level isn't sustainable for long. At one point we may have to choose the economy, as that affects more people in the long run.

However, with this level of panic and fear, life wouldn't get back to normal for a period of time even after restrictions are opened up again without something fairly major happening with the virus itself.

But here is the deal if this is a virus then you can only get it once. That would mean that the people who are NOT tested ( either because the doctors will not test them due to limited tests or because they do not seek a test (They decide to ride it out at home) well those people once recovered can neither spread it nor catch it. What ends up happening is that the pool of at risk people in smaller and smaller.

 

[Hazelelponi]

But here is the deal if this is a virus then you can only get it once. That would mean that the people who are NOT tested ( either because the doctors will not test them due to limited tests or because they do not seek a test (They decide to ride it out at home) well those people once recovered can neither spread it nor catch it. What ends up happening is that the pool of at risk people in smaller and smaller.

I don't think (?) that's true..

We can always get viruses more than once. We can catch a cold multiple times a year, the flu more than once...

Certainly if it's the exact same type and same strain of the virus you'll have some antibodies, but with all viruses they don't always last forever, not even every vaccine provides lifelong immunity...

I do believe if you allow it to run it's course you'll have a stronger immunity to it population wide, but it will also kill off anyone less naturally able to fight it.

 

[dogs4thewin]

I don't think (?) that's true..

We can always get viruses more than once. We can catch a cold multiple times a year, the flu more than once...

Certainly if it's the exact same type and same strain of the virus you'll have some antibodies, but with all viruses they don't always last forever, not even every vaccine provides lifelong immunity...

You cannot get the strains again though not for a long time, so the people who have recovered are out of the pool at risk ( whether they know it or not at least for this round.

 

[Salvadore]

Entire cities in China and Italy have been closed. I don't see that happening in the US. People are leaving New York and traveling about. Not a great idea. Our governors had better start closing off our cities.