Recent rise in COVID-19 cases has been mostly in states Trump won in 2016

[Pommer]

The graphic is interesting, because it would leave both sides with some "explaining to do"

There's this part:
View attachment 298015

...but then there's this part:
View attachment 298016


Obviously not following protocols is a contributing factor, not trying to deny that here...

But to me, this looks like a scenario where one may also have to consider the possibility that a lot of it could be a case where more rural states with lower population densities (that more often lean red) saw their spikes later than the densely populated more "metropolitan" states that more often lean blue.

While it's obvious that many of the die hard Trump fans don't take it very seriously, and don't take the precautions particularly seriously...I don't think that particular trait is anything new and the same indifference that exists now was the same indifference that was there 3 months prior.

In terms of trajectories with the most up to date data...I don't think one can establish a clear trend between spread and political affiliation:

View attachment 298018
Covid-19: National and Subnational estimates for the United States of America

It took longer to reach rural areas?

 

[ThatRobGuy]

It took longer to reach rural areas?

For certain areas, it's possible...

West Virginia was the last state out of the 50 states to have a confirmed case.

It's pretty rural there.

...which is why I noted that they likely saw their spikes later on.

So I would expect that a highly congested area, that had significant spread and a large spike 3 months ago would be better off over the next 3 months than an area that just has their first significant number of cases a week ago.

As with a spike and spread does come with some immunity a few weeks down the road.

Just with the nature of this virus, and the fact that keeping your distance and avoiding crowds is still the best mitigation measure, areas where "keeping distance" is the norm (vs. a place like NYC or LA where it's congested), is likely going to delay the spikes.


Also, when comparing regions (both domestically and internationally), another big factor is "city to city" transmission which starts off a whole new chain of infections.

Meaning, if one lives in a city of 150,000 people (and is infected), and they do a daily commute to a city < 30 mins away with 300,000 people for an essential job (and hundreds of other people are doing the same), that area is bound to see more spread sooner than later when compared to people who live and work in a city that's 60 miles away from the closest major city...they'll likely see their spread much later on as the only way it finds it's way back is if someone makes a day trip to that city or someone from the city who's infected comes out to visit someone in the rural area.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Jan 12, 2021
CA now sits at #26, having risen very rapidly from #40 only a few weeks ago. We were doing so well.

California had a terrible end of 2020 into early 2021, getting as high as #24 in total cases per capita. At the moment things are looking much better.

California’s coronavirus case rate now the lowest in the continental U.S.

The state’s latest seven-day rate of new cases — 40.3 per 100,000 people — is dramatically lower than the nationwide rate of 135.3 and edged only by Hawaii, 39.1, over the same time period, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

At the other end of the spectrum is Michigan, which has far and away the highest seven-day case rate in the nation, at 483 per 100,000 people. Others topping that distressing leaderboard are New Jersey, 269.7; Delaware, 264.1; Pennsylvania, 248.5; and Minnesota, 238.4.

Over the last week, California has reported an average of 2,320 new cases per day — a 13% decrease from two weeks ago, according to data compiled by The Times.

Last winter, California’s average peaked at more than 40,000 new cases per day.

On Tuesday, 1,774 coronavirus-positive Californians were hospitalized statewide, with 437 in intensive care. Though those numbers have yo-yoed slightly day to day, they remain among the lowest the state has seen since last spring.

 

[Fantine]

Only 15% of the residents in my red county are vaccinated.

Unless you have a medical suit of armor, stay away!

 

[Jeffwhosoever]

I'm in a red state and we are as vaccinated as anyone, so generalizations don't really apply truthfully. Also, Michigan and other traditionally blue states are having much more case spikes than southern states, though I think the correlation is more temperature or sunlight driven than geopolitical.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Also, Michigan and other traditionally blue states

Michigan went Trump in 2016, although narrowly.

47.50% 47.27%

 

[essentialsaltes]

4/20
ND
RI (up 1 spot)
SD
IA
UT
TN
AZ
OK
NE
SC (up 1 spot)
NJ (up 1 spot)
AR (down 2 spots)
AL
KS
NY (up 2 spots)

4/27

ND (reached 140,000 cases per million)
RI
SD
IA
TN (up 1)
UT (down 1)
AZ
NE (up 1)
OK (down 1)
SC
NJ
AR
AL
NY (up 1)
IN (back on the list)

Other Clinton states in the top 25 are #16 DE (up 1 more spot), #19 IL (up 1), and #24 NV (no change)

FL has moved up 2 more spots to #21.

2 more states have reached 100K cases per million.
Within a week, the nation as a whole will reach 100K cases per million.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Let's first look at the percentage of those 18 and older with at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.

The top 10 states on this metric are New Hampshire, New Mexico, South Dakota, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maine, Vermont, Alaska, and Minnesota and Rhode Island tied. Nearly all of these are states won by President Joe Biden last November, with Alaska and South Dakota as the exceptions.

Now look at the bottom 10 states on this metric: Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Georgia, Louisiana, Indiana, Wyoming, Missouri, Arkansas and Idaho. Former President Donald Trump won all of these states last year, except for Georgia.

The pattern continues to hold up.

Top 10
NH (59.7%)
MA
CT
VT
ME
RI
HI
NJ
NM
PA (48.1%)

All Biden states (with Maine's EVs split 3-1 for Biden).

Bottom 10
MS (30.6%)
AL
LA
ID
WY
TN
GA
AR
IN
WV (35.4%)

All but Georgia went for Trump.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Nov 24, 2020
ND (First state to hit 90,000 cases per million. They'll hit 100,000 soon)

The nation as a whole has just reached 100,000 cases per million.
This is the 4th highest rate among countries of at least a million people.
This puts the US on par with Bahrain and Sweden.

The US has reached 1,776 [!] deaths per million.
That is, 0.18% of all Americans have died of COVID. Not just of those who got sick.
This ranks 13th worldwide, on par with Poland and Croatia.

 

[essentialsaltes]

4/27

ND (reached 140,000 cases per million)
RI
SD
IA
TN (up 1)
UT (down 1)
AZ
NE (up 1)
OK (down 1)
SC
NJ
AR
AL
NY (up 1)
IN (back on the list)

5/4

ND
RI (reached 140,000 cases per million)
SD
IA
TN
UT
AZ
NE
OK
SC
NJ
AR
NY (up 1)
DE (up 2)
AL

Other Clinton states in the top 25 are #18 IL (up 1), #24 MN (back on list) and #25 NV (down 1)

FL steady at #21. Texas has drifted down to #29, but is now the 29th state to reach 100K cases per million. CA has sunk to #35.

 

[essentialsaltes]

5/4

ND
RI (reached 140,000 cases per million)
SD
IA
TN
UT
AZ
NE
OK
SC
NJ
AR
NY (up 1)
DE (up 2)
AL

5/11

ND
RI
SD
IA
TN
UT
AZ
NE
OK
SC
NJ
AR
DE (up 1)
NY (down 1)
IN (displaces AL at #15)

Other Clinton states in the top 25 are #17 IL (up 1), #23 MN (up 1) and #25 NV

FL rises 2 spot to #19. CA drops 1 to #36.
Louisiana will soon become the 31st state to reach 100K cases per million.
Indiana will soon become the 12th state to reach 2,000 deaths per million.

 

[essentialsaltes]

5/11

ND
RI
SD
IA
TN
UT
AZ
NE
OK
SC
NJ
AR
DE (up 1)
NY (down 1)
IN (displaces AL at #15)

5/18

ND
RI
SD
IA
TN
UT
AZ
NE
SC (up 1)
OK (down 1)
NJ
AR
AL (up 3)
DE (down 1)
NY (down 1)

Other Clinton states in the top 25 are #17 IL, #22 MN (up 1) and #24 NV (up 1)

Louisiana is the 31st state to reach 100K cases per million.
Indiana is the 12th state to reach 2,000 deaths per million.

The US has reached 600,000 deaths.
Worldwide, the slowdown in the US is helping it drop out of the topmost tier.

By cases per million, the US ranks 5th among countries with more than 1 million population. This puts the US on par with Sweden and Lithuania.

By deaths per capita, the US ranks 15th, on par with the UK and Spain.

 

[essentialsaltes]

5/18

ND
RI
SD
IA
TN
UT
AZ
NE
SC (up 1)
OK (down 1)
NJ
AR
AL (up 3)
DE (down 1)
NY (down 1)

5/25
UT and TN switch places
DE and AL switch places

Other Clinton states in the top 25 are #17 IL, #22 MN and #24 NV
FL up one to #18.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Death by political party: The relationship between COVID-19 deaths and political party affiliation in the United States

However, the difference in COVID-19 outcomes between counties with low and high levels of Trump support grew after several weeks of the policy implementation as counties with higher levels of Trump support suffered relatively higher death rates. Counties with higher levels of Trump support exhibited lower percentages of mobile staying at home and higher percentages of people working part time or full time than otherwise comparable counties with lower levels of Trump support. The relative negative performance of Trump-supporting counties is robust after controlling for these measures of policy compliance. Counties with high percentages of older (aged 65 and above) persons tended to have greater death rates, as did more populous counties in general. This study indicates that policymakers should consider the risks inherent in controlling public health crises due to divisions in political ideology and confirms that vulnerable communities are at particularly high risk in public health crises.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Let's first look at the percentage of those 18 and older with at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.

The top 10 states on this metric are New Hampshire, New Mexico, South Dakota, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maine, Vermont, Alaska, and Minnesota and Rhode Island tied. Nearly all of these are states won by President Joe Biden last November, with Alaska and South Dakota as the exceptions.

12 states have now reached 70% for at least partial vaccination:

California and Maryland most recently reported crossing the milestone, joining Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maine, New Jersey, Rhode Island, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.

All went Biden in 2020.

Vaccination should not be a political issue.

 

[essentialsaltes]

LINK

All but one of the 39 congressional districts where at least 60 percent of residents have received a coronavirus shot are represented by Democrats, according to a Harvard University analysis that presents one of the most detailed looks yet at the partisan split behind the nation’s diverging vaccination drive. By contrast, Republicans represent all but two of the 30 districts where fewer than one-third of residents have received a shot.

Republicans are roughly six times more likely than Democrats to say they have no interest in being vaccinated, according to recent polls. Democratic districts, meanwhile, are largely vaccinating at a faster clip, as local officials and organizations redouble efforts to reach the holdouts, with a focus on minority groups.

“Among the remaining unvaccinated people, white people are much more likely to say they are definitely not going to get the vaccine, whereas Black and Hispanic people are more likely to say they haven't gotten it yet but are hoping to get it soon,” said Liz Hamel, vice president and director of public opinion and survey research at the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Hamel said Black and Hispanic adults, according to surveys, are more likely to be concerned about taking time off from work, having to get a ride to get a shot or the cost of vaccination, even though the Covid vaccines are free.

 

[essentialsaltes]

5/25
UT and TN switch places
DE and AL switch places

Other Clinton states in the top 25 are #17 IL, #22 MN and #24 NV
FL up one to #18.

6/8
WI (jumps on to the list at #8 - did they readjust their numbers or something?)

New Jersey is close to 3,000 deaths per million, although it will take some time to reach that.
15 states now have 2,000 deaths per million.
Overall US average is 1,852 deaths per million, comparable to the UK and Argentina.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Nice graphical look at the vaccine divide.

• But surveys have shown Trump supporters are the least likely to say they have been vaccinated or plan to be. Remember, Trump got vaccinated before leaving the White House, but that was reported months later. Unlike other public officials who were trying to encourage people to get the shot, Trump did it in private.

• The top 22 states (including D.C.) with the highest adult vaccination rates all went to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.

• Some of the least vaccinated states are the most pro-Trump. Trump won 17 of the 18 states with the lowest adult vaccination rates. Many of these states have high proportions of whites without college degrees.

 

[essentialsaltes]

As the U.S. emerges from the COVID-19 crisis, Missouri is becoming a cautionary tale for the rest of the country: It is seeing an alarming rise in cases because of a combination of the fast-spreading delta variant and stubborn resistance among many people to getting vaccinated.

 

[mark46]

Nice graphical look at the vaccine divide.

• But surveys have shown Trump supporters are the least likely to say they have been vaccinated or plan to be. Remember, Trump got vaccinated before leaving the White House, but that was reported months later. Unlike other public officials who were trying to encourage people to get the shot, Trump did it in private.

• The top 22 states (including D.C.) with the highest adult vaccination rates all went to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.

• Some of the least vaccinated states are the most pro-Trump. Trump won 17 of the 18 states with the lowest adult vaccination rates. Many of these states have high proportions of whites without college degrees.

The situation will be even more obvious in a few months when more blacks are led by their churches and community groups to be vaccinated, while there is no such actions among the Trumpers.