Rasmussen Poll (predebate) Biden 51 / Trump 43

[essentialsaltes]

Rasmussen, which generally has a pro-Trump bias compared to other polling organizations, shows a bit of a shift.

SHOCK POLL: Trump Craters in Rasmussen Poll as Biden Gains 7 Point Swing in One Week

“The race had narrowed over the previous three weeks, but Biden has now cleared the 50% mark for the first time,” Rasmussen reported, noting that “Trump’s latest showing is his lowest since early August.”

According to Rasmussen, the latest poll also “finds Trump with 79% support among Republicans,” while “Biden has 84% of the Democrat vote and has reclaimed the lead among voters not affiliated with either major party.”

Rasmussen, a Republican-tilted pollster, is one of Trump’s favorites.

 

[Kentonio]

If he’s losing with Rasmussen, then he’s losing the election.

 

[MIDutch]

If he’s losing with Rasmussen, then he’s losing the election.

We can only hope.

 

[tturt]

hope not

 

[cow451]

Remember, it’s not a popularity contest.
State Polls Give Biden Strong Lead in Electoral College as First Debate Looms

 

[essentialsaltes]

Post debate NBC/WSJ poll:

 

[cow451]

Post debate NBC/WSJ poll:

How are things evolving re: Electoral College?

 

[essentialsaltes]

How are things evolving re: Electoral College?

It's a messy business, but the 538 forecast (at this instant) has Biden with an 81% chance of winning.

As I understand it, if sentiment just stays where it is, Biden's chance to win (in this model) will increase as we get closer to election day and there's less time for Trump to swing things back his direction, and the uncertainties narrow. The debate(s?) were/are Trump's best chance to swing things back.

A simple map model just has Biden winning as the default state (if he wins all the states that are solid, likely, or lean Democrat). Trump would have to win all the GOP states, all 91 'tossup' votes and steal 10 electoral votes from the blue camp.

 

[cow451]

It's a messy business, but the 538 forecast (at this instant) has Biden with an 81% chance of winning.

As I understand it, if sentiment just stays where it is, Biden's chance to win (in this model) will increase as we get closer to election day and there's less time for Trump to swing things back his direction, and the uncertainties narrow. The debate(s?) were/are Trump's best chance to swing things back.

A simple map model just has Biden winning as the default state (if he wins all the states that are solid, likely, or lean Democrat).

That interactive map is fun. I took a conservative approach to undecideds (Trump taking FL and Ohio) and Biden still gets 290 EC's

 

[essentialsaltes]

Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania: Biden with double digit lead. Trump won PA with <1% lead in 2016.

Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for president stands at 54% for Biden and 42% for Trump. Another 1% support Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 2% are undecided. Biden maintains a sizable lead when likely voter models are applied. A model based on a somewhat higher level of turnout than 2016 puts the race at 54% for Biden and 43% for Trump, while one reflecting lower turnout has it at 53% for Biden and 45% for Trump.

 

[Basil the Great]

Biden's Scranton roots alone will probably be enough to flip PA to the Dems.

 

[MIDutch]

I just heard about another (unofficial) poll that posters might find interesting. My wife has an elderly friend with whom she worked many years ago, but with whom she is still good friends. Her friend lives part time in Arizona at one of the mega retirement communities (my wife thinks her friend once told her that it has some 50,000 retirees living there). trump overwhelmingly won the vote in this retirement community 4 years ago, but according to the newsletter that my wife's friend received just this week, Biden is up by 17% in a poll taken within the community. According to my wife's friend, the general feeling in the retirement community is that trump really doesn't care whether the elderly live or die from COVID-19.

It may just be circumstantial evidence, but it may also indicate which way the wind is blowing (in Arizona).

 

[wing2000]

Among all registered voters in Pennsylvania, the race for president stands at 54% for Biden and 42% for Trump.

A 12 point lead as early voting started this week in PA.

 

[wing2000]

I just heard about another (unofficial) poll that posters might find interesting. My wife has an elderly friend with whom she worked many years ago, but with whom she is still good friends. Her friend lives part time in Arizona at one of the mega retirement communities (my wife thinks her friend once told her that it has some 50,000 retirees living there). trump overwhelmingly won the vote in this retirement community 4 years ago, but according to the newsletter that my wife's friend received just this week, Biden is up by 17% in a poll taken within the community. According to my wife's friend, the general feeling in the retirement community is that trump really doesn't care whether the elderly live or die from COVID-19.

It may just be circumstantial evidence, but it may also indicate which way the wind is blowing (in Arizona).

...Trump won AZ by less than 4 points in 2016. Biden has been consistently polling 4 points ahead of Trump for the past two months. And Sen McSally is down by 9 points to challenger Mark Kelly. IMO, there are more than a few John McCain Republicans who will be crossing over this year.

Mail in ballots go out this week (historically, approximately 80% of Arizonans vote by mail).

Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump holding in battleground Arizona

 

[MIDutch]

...Trump won AZ by less than 4 points in 2016. Biden has been consistently polling 4 points ahead of Trump for the past two months. And Sen McSally is down by 9 points to challenger Mark Kelly. IMO, there are more than a few John McCain Republicans who will be crossing over this year.

Mail in ballots go out this week (historically, approximately 80% of Arizonans vote by mail).

Joe Biden's lead over Donald Trump holding in battleground Arizona

Can trump realistically win re-election if he loses Arizona?

 

[wing2000]

Can trump realistically win re-election if he loses Arizona?

Yes. But if he loses PA or FL - game over.

 

[JSRG]

If he’s losing with Rasmussen, then he’s losing the election.

No, because the popular vote isn't what decides the President. It doesn't matter how hard you get clobbered in the popular vote if you win the electoral college.

To be fair, the larger the gap in the popular vote, the harder it is to win the electoral college. But really, the popular vote gap doesn't mean that much--what matters is the electoral college.

 

[Kentonio]

No, because the popular vote isn't what decides the President. It doesn't matter how hard you get clobbered in the popular vote if you win the electoral college.

To be fair, the larger the gap in the popular vote, the harder it is to win the electoral college. But really, the popular vote gap doesn't mean that much--what matters is the electoral college.

You are right in theory but in reality if the gap in the national polling is as big as it appears, then it’s basically nearly impossible for the electoral college result to come out any different.

 

[hislegacy]

What was the poll after the debate?

 

[Tiberius Lee]

But .. but .. in 2016 media said Clinton will win .. but you see .. Trump has silent majority.. Trump will win landslide.

These are all Fake media and fake polls.. .. I don’t believe in polls .. we saw what happened in 2016. I am not gonna look other election when media accurately predicted presidential election for past 80 years.. those are all elite liberal statistics .. .. just listen to real people here .. in middle America ..and remember Clinton with Benghazi .. media said she will win.. now who is the President .. fake polls.