Probability and evolution from natural causes

[tas8831]

I could not tell you that because I am not him, but since there are even Ph.D mathematicians like Dr. Marcel P. Schutzenberger, and Murray Eden of MIT, that having reviewed such probabilities themselves also agree, then I say (just my opinion) it should be given more serious consideration. Now though those beset with their own presuppositions may think up ever newer criticisms that is not true critical thinking that's a defensive response. None of these people are "creationists", nor in error.

So, I guess you are not going to divulge the source of your doctored quote?

No quotes there!!!

Wow.

Your doctored Blum quote.

Why play these games? It merely makes it look like you are evading (for obvious reasons, I suppose).

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

you know what? lets check it in the real world level. lets say that we want to build a minimal sonar system (like whale has). lets say that we will need for it only about 2 parts: a and b. if the chance to get one part is about one in a 10^10 mutations then the chance to get a minimal sonar will be 10^20. and remember that one part sonar will not work. even human cant build one part sonar. also remember that we cant just mix parts in the whale to get such a system.

The whale doesn't have a minimal sonar system, it has an extremely well-developed sonar system. A minimal sonar system would be along the lines of what is used by some blind humans, who can sense their surroundings and navigate by clicking with their tongues and listening for the echoes, i.e. repurposing an existing system (at least one of these people can sonar-visualise well enough to ride a bike on a busy road).

As far as the total number of mutations goes, I have no idea. But the number may be less than you imagine - a single mutation can have significant structural or organisational effects if it occurs in a gene regulator. For example, the FoxP2 gene that is crucial vocalisation in mammals, has been found to vary considerably in echolocating bats, and bats that can use Doppler shift compensation have a FoxP2 mutation that others don't. It's interesting that both toothed whales and bats have evolved near identical versions of prestin, a protein used in cochlear amplification for echolocation - see The Echolocation Gene.

 

[xianghua]

The whale doesn't have a minimal sonar system, it has an extremely well-developed sonar system.

true. i refering to a minimal underwater sonar. whale for instance have a speciel organ called "melon":

Animal echolocation - Wikipedia

so how many new changes we will need to evolve underwater sonar?

 

[tas8831]

so how many new changes we will need to evolve underwater sonar?

Ummm.... 11.

 

[sfs]

Ummm.... 11.

No, 12. You forgot the, um, other one.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

true. i refering to a minimal underwater sonar. whale for instance have a speciel organ called "melon"

The melon is made of specialised adipose tissue (fatty tissue). It grew in size and correspondence with the posterior migration of the blowhole.

so how many new changes we will need to evolve underwater sonar?

I already said, I have no idea.

 

[xianghua]

The melon is made of specialised adipose tissue (fatty tissue). It grew in size and correspondence with the posterior migration of the blowhole.

ok. lets say that only about 10 gene involve in this echolocation system. think about creating a submarine sonar from a submarine without it. we will need at least several changes\new parts to such a change. so we cant do that stepwise:


sonar parts‏ - חיפוש ב-Google:

 

[Loudmouth]

ok. lets say that only about 10 gene involve in this echolocation system.

Why would the evolution of a sonar system only be limited to 10 specific genes?

You can't claim that the only way to evolve a sonar system is the exact pathway that cetaceans took. There could be millions and millions of other possible pathways that cetaceans didn't take.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

ok. lets say that only about 10 gene involve in this echolocation system. think about creating a submarine sonar from a submarine without it. we will need at least several changes\new parts to such a change. so we cant do that stepwise:

sonar parts‏ - חיפוש ב-Google:

Submarines aren't cetaceans. As I already suggested, evolution repurposes existing features.

 

[xianghua]

Why would the evolution of a sonar system only be limited to 10 specific genes?

You can't claim that the only way to evolve a sonar system is the exact pathway that cetaceans took. There could be millions and millions of other possible pathways that cetaceans didn't take.

how many? if the sequence space is about 20^300, then even if there are about 10^100 different ways (more then the number of atoms in the entire universe) to make a sonar system it's nothing compare to the whole sequence space.

 

[xianghua]

Submarines aren't cetaceans. As I already suggested, evolution repurposes existing features.

it doesnt matter. you can choose any complex system like a car, airplane, watch and so on. it doesnt change the fact that we cant make such systems stepwise. even by an intelligent.

 

[lesliedellow]

it doesnt matter. you can choose any complex system like a car, airplane, watch and so on. it doesnt change the fact that we cant make such systems stepwise. even by an intelligent.

Mechanical systems do not evolve, for the completely obvious reasons which have been pointed out a thousand million times before.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

it doesnt matter. you can choose any complex system like a car, airplane, watch and so on. it doesnt change the fact that we cant make such systems stepwise. even by an intelligent.

Your post is barely coherent, but machines don't reproduce like biological organisms; so they're not useful analogies for evolution.

 

[tas8831]

how many? if the sequence space is about 20^300, then even if there are about 10^100 different ways (more then the number of atoms in the entire universe) to make a sonar system it's nothing compare to the whole sequence space.

Does the entire sequence space play a role in the development/morphology of structures in the head of a mammal?

 

[tas8831]

it doesnt matter. you can choose any complex system like a car, airplane, watch and so on. it doesnt change the fact that we cant make such systems stepwise. even by an intelligent.

A mere assertion.

How did you derive the sequence space?

 

[Loudmouth]

how many? if the sequence space is about 20^300, then even if there are about 10^100 different ways (more then the number of atoms in the entire universe) to make a sonar system it's nothing compare to the whole sequence space.

Again, please show that these numbers are accurate.

 

[PsychoSarah]

it doesnt matter. you can choose any complex system like a car, airplane, watch and so on. it doesnt change the fact that we cant make such systems stepwise. even by an intelligent.

-_- look up how assembly lines work, and tell me we don't make cars stepwise.

 

[SkyWriting]

What is incorrect or correct about this presentation....

Please provide a transcript.

 

[SkyWriting]

Again, please show that these numbers are accurate.

Probably models are not intended to be accurate.
Doing a full accurate count takes too much time.

 

[xianghua]

Your post is barely coherent, but machines don't reproduce like biological organisms; so they're not useful analogies for evolution.

they actually are, since im talking about an intelligent human that can change anything he want. like mutations. so do you think it's possible to make a functional sonar stepwise?