Predict the Democratic nominee for President

[mark46]

Everyone is focusing on Biden, who was always expected to do OK in NEV and to win in SC.

IMO, the real story is Warren. She led in ZERO of Iowa's counties, after spending huge amounts of money and effort. Warren will be severely tested in NH, here neighboring state. It would be a severe defeat if she cannot come in second to her chief rival, Bernie. After 2 thirds, Warren would have to win in either NEV or SC, not likely.

The IDP is not officially naming Pete Buttigieg the winner yet, of course. They ruled out Elizabeth Warren. She is too far behind to catch up with Bernie Sanders. What everyone knows now is one of two men won.

 

[mark46]

But it’s true. The only reason Donald Trump is President is because less than 1% of the voters in 3 states took a chance. They won’t make that mistake again.

I don't see why not. Trump's favorability ratings are at the highest since his election. The economy is the best in the world, and continues to set records. NAFTA has been updated to be much more favorable to workers. Jobs have been created in Trump's 3 years at almost Obama levels. Unemployment levels among minorities have never been lower. Income inequality continues to get worth, continuing trends from the last 2 presidents.

 

[jayem]

I don't see why not. Trump's favorability ratings are at the highest since his election. The economy is the best in the world, and continues to set records. NAFTA has been updated to be much more favorable to workers. Jobs have been created in Trump's 3 years at almost Obama levels. Unemployment levels among minorities have never been lower. Income inequality continues to get worth, continuing trends from the last 2 presidents.

I don't think that makes any difference to anti-Trump voters. They despise him because of his character and personality. In 2016, he won big margins among rural, exurban, and some suburban voters. But even as disliked as he was, Hillary was disliked more. She couldn't mobilize the urban, suburban, and minority voters in the big metropolitan areas that elected Obama twice. In the city of Detroit alone, Hillary won 90,000 less votes than Pres. Obama. Trump's margin of victory in the entire state of MI was less than 11,000 votes. If Hillary could have gotten half the turnout in Detroit that Pres. O had, she would have won MI's EVs.

Donald Trump's "base" is solid. But it's not an EV majority. And I don't see that he's done anything to significantly increase it. I think the 20 states (and DC) that Hillary won are also pretty solid for a Democrat. But that's not an EV majority either. The election will hinge on who can turnout his/her voters in several swing states. Donald Trump has certainly done nothing to change his character and personality. A Democrat must capitalize on that and energize those urban anti-Trump voters in just a few states who stayed home in 2016. That's the road to 280 EVs.

 

[GodLovesCats]

I don't see why not. Trump's favorability ratings are at the highest since his election. The economy is the best in the world, and continues to set records. NAFTA has been updated to be much more favorable to workers. Jobs have been created in Trump's 3 years at almost Obama levels. Unemployment levels among minorities have never been lower. Income inequality continues to get worth, continuing trends from the last 2 presidents.

We only have the best economy in the world if all of those jobs are GOOD for ALL working Americans who work, with NO risk of being moved out of the country, and every homeowner is earns a LIVING wage.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I'm guessing Mayor Pete...

As popular as Bernie is in some crowds...his age is certainly a factor. Warren's credibility is poor, despite her shameless attempts at pandering (like when she claimed she'd only appoint a secretary of education after consulting with a transgender high school student)

Even Bill Maher, who's pretty far left, acknowledged how ridiculous that sounded
Maher: Warren Wanting A Trans Kid To Pick Education Secretary Is "Crazy Stuff"


However, if the DNC were smart, they'd be rallying behind Yang. Despite the fact that his ideas are radically different with regards to solutions to issues, his 1-on-1 debate/conversation against Ben Shapiro impressed me in that Shapiro isn't an easy guy to debate against, and Yang held his own. If he can hold his own in a debate against a well-spoken, intelligent guy like Shapiro, he'd mop the floor with a guy like Trump, who speaks in sound-bytes and largely resorts to personal attack.

 

[Mountainmanbob]

Bernie's got this one.
And he will not be cheated again.

Trump Bernie debate
sure will be interesting.

M-Bob

 

[mark46]

I don't think that makes any difference to anti-Trump voters. They despise him because of his character and personality. In 2016, he won big margins among rural, exurban, and some suburban voters. But even as disliked as he was, Hillary was disliked more. She couldn't mobilize the urban, suburban, and minority voters in the big metropolitan areas that elected Obama twice. In the city of Detroit alone, Hillary won 90,000 less votes than Pres. Obama. Trump's margin of victory in the entire state of MI was less than 11,000 votes. If Hillary could have gotten half the turnout in Detroit that Pres. O had, she would have won MI's EVs.

Donald Trump's "base" is solid. But it's not an EV majority. And I don't see that he's done anything to significantly increase it. I think the 20 states (and DC) that Hillary won are also pretty solid for a Democrat. But that's not an EV majority either. The election will hinge on who can turnout his/her voters in several swing states. Donald Trump has certainly done nothing to change his character and personality. A Democrat must capitalize on that and energize those urban anti-Trump voters in just a few states who stayed home in 2016. That's the road to 280 EVs.

49% think that Trump is doing a good job. That's lots more votes than he got last time.

 

[GodLovesCats]

I would not say it is Bernie's to lose when he can't even be declared the winner with 71% of precincts in a small state reporting. Because of Iowa caucus rules, Pete is in front there via delegate count.

 

[jayem]

49% think that Trump is doing a good job. That's lots more votes than he got last time.

But in what states? National approval polls are meaningless. Individual states are all that matter. Do you really think he has a snowball's chance to win NY, or Ill., or CA, OR, WA, CO, MD, or any New England state? As of now, I don't see that he can flip any of the states Hillary won. And if his opponent can get 51% of the votes in PA, MI, and WI, that's the ballgame. Voters to Trump..."You're fired!"

 

[chevyontheriver]

Everyone is focusing on Biden, who was always expected to do OK in NEV and to win in SC.

IMO, the real story is Warren. She led in ZERO of Iowa's counties, after spending huge amounts of money and effort. Warren will be severely tested in NH, here neighboring state. It would be a severe defeat if she cannot come in second to her chief rival, Bernie. After 2 thirds, Warren would have to win in either NEV or SC, not likely.

Biden is self destructing before our eyes. If he doesn't WIN and win BIG in NV and SC he is done. Question is how long it will take him to fade to zero.

If Warren doesn't come in at least second in NH, NV, or SC she's done too. She will probably not endorse Bernie but some of her voters will vote for him. But then with the Democratic Party machine against Bernie he has to either win a revolution against them at the convention or settle for having the nomination stolen from him in the second straight election.

The one to watch now is mayor Pete. Biden's done. Warren's probably done. Klobuchar is toast. Saunders can't win without a convention revolution.

 

[chevyontheriver]

Bernie's got this one.
And he will not be cheated again.

Trump Bernie debate
sure will be interesting.

M-Bob

Bernie is in the process of being cheated again.
His best bet of stopping it is a convention revolution.
Last time that was tried in 1968 it didn't actually work.
Humphrey ended up the nominee, but wounded, giving us Nixon.

 

[mark46]

Bernie is in the process of being cheated again.
His best bet of stopping it is a convention revolution.
Last time that was tried in 1968 it didn't actually work.
Humphrey ended up the nominee, but wounded, giving us Nixon.

You remember this lesson. Will the Sanders folks?

 

[mark46]

Biden is self destructing before our eyes. If he doesn't WIN and win BIG in NV and SC he is done. Question is how long it will take him to fade to zero.

If Warren doesn't come in at least second in NH, NV, or SC she's done too. She will probably not endorse Bernie but some of her voters will vote for him. But then with the Democratic Party machine against Bernie he has to either win a revolution against them at the convention or settle for having the nomination stolen from him in the second straight election.

The one to watch now is mayor Pete. Biden's done. Warren's probably done. Klobuchar is toast. Saunders can't win without a convention revolution.

Biden was always going to lose Iowa and NH to Sanders. No one predicted anything different. Nevada is another caucus. I'll be blunt. No one cares, but it would help Biden a lot to come in 1st or 2nd. Biden does need to have a solid win in SC.

As far as Biden being out, we'll see on March 3rd (3 days after SC) when over 1/3 of the delegates will be decided. It is unlikely that more than 3 will be viable after March 3rd.

 

[mark46]

But in what states? National approval polls are meaningless. Individual states are all that matter. Do you really think he has a snowball's chance to win NY, or Ill., or CA, OR, WA, CO, MD, or any New England state? As of now, I don't see that he can flip any of the states Hillary won. And if his opponent can get 51% of the votes in PA, MI, and WI, that's the ballgame. Voters to Trump..."You're fired!"

When Trump's approval rating was at 35%, this metric was critically important. Gaining the support of 15% of America is now not important at all.

Yup, all we have to do is to win in PA, MI and WI (and MN which Hillary took). Will Sanders really do so much better than Hillary in the MidWest, and not lose any Hillary states? This is the stuff of fairy tales we read to our children. Have you been to PA and MI (outside the big cities)? A centrist Democrat is a lock, if he/she doesn't totally mess up. A leftist has little chance. Oh yes, I forgot to mention the fable of Sanders or Warren restoring the Obama coalition and being out huge numbers of minority voters. Sanders, really? Warren, really?

 

[wing2000]

Too early to say....I agree it will be much clearer after March 3rd (CA, TX + 13 states vote)


2020 Presidential Election Calendar

 

[mark46]

Too early to say....I agree it will be much clearer after March 3rd (CA, TX + 13 states vote)


2020 Presidential Election Calendar

and even clear by March 17 by which time we will hear from FL, IL, MI, OH and WA.

 

[chevyontheriver]

You remember this lesson. Will the Sanders folks?

I think the Democratic party finally splits this time into a Socialist Party and a Social Liberal Party. The tensions have grown for generations. They will split over how Bernie was handled. I think it will be a convention to watch (at a considerable distance). If Bernie pulls off the revolution he will alienate other Democrats and Trump wins. If Bernie fails in the revolution his voters go home and Trump wins. Not that I want Trump. I would not mind a new political landscape as the present one is toxic.

 

[Mountainmanbob]

I think the Democratic party finally splits this time into a Socialist Party and a Social Liberal Party. The tensions have grown for generations. They will split over how Bernie was handled. I think it will be a convention to watch (at a considerable distance). If Bernie pulls off the revolution he will alienate other Democrats and Trump wins. If Bernie fails in the revolution his voters go home and Trump wins. Not that I want Trump. I would not mind a new political landscape as the present one is toxic.

The socialist side is quickly growing over there.
May take over in 10 to 20 years.
Kids dig it -- free everything.
M-Bob

 

[chevyontheriver]

The socialist side is quickly growing over there.
May take over in 10 to 20 years.
Kids dig it -- free everything.
M-Bob

I want free stuff too!



Remember the Obamaphones?

 

[GodLovesCats]

Too early to say. I agree it will be much clearer after March 3rd (CA, TX + 13 states vote)

Also Democrats who are not in the USA on March 3 will get their votes counted that day, including people who don't live in one of those 15 states.

It seems like over half the delegates will be counted before I vote.