Politifact, Is That You??? (Agrees with DeSantis)

[GOD Shines Forth!]

But more importantly, your professorial pronouncements look silly.

I can live with that.

 

[hedrick]

Well for one thing, the unvaccinated are the ones getting sick and dying and overwhelming the hospitals, if natural immunity was so hot, you would expect it to not be so bad. So obviously natural immunity isn't enough to help. Either natural immunity isn't working, or those with it aren't enough to actually help avoid the problems. Right now it's better to get everyone vaccinated and worry about natural immunity or not later.

To a first approximation, natural immunity is probably at least as good as immunization. But let’s look at numbers. The US has had 13% of the people known infected. Surely there are more cases, particularly asymptomatic, so maybe we have 30 to 40 percent. That’s not enough. And it’s not clear that immunity from asymptomatic cases is as good. Unfortunately you can’t add percentages. We have 53% vaccinated. If around 1/3 of the others have the same degree of immunity from the disease. Thats 66% total. Still not enough. Natural immunity is a help, but I don’t want to continue the epidemic long enough for natural immunity to end it.

I also note that looking at national numbers can be misleading. 53% vaccination doesn't mean it’s that way everywhere. There are communities with much lower numbers.

 

[RestoreTheJoy]

A sign of apocalypse? PolitiFact "mostly" agrees with DeSantis on the benefit of conferred natural immunity?

"Both vaccinations and natural exposure build memory B cells. But the Rockefeller team found that the memory B cells produced through natural infection are more robust. They continue to evolve over the months, while the vaccination-driven memory B cells stopped changing after about two months. When facing variants, the naturally occurring memory B cells delivered better protection"

(Fauci forfend!)

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PolitiFact - Fact-checking DeSantis on COVID-19 natural immunity

Everyone who has been paying any attention whatsoever to the literature knows that natural immunity is better than injected temporary immunity. But there were billions of dollars to be made, so we couldn't have that. Now, after widespread injection of much of the population, the "variants" began.

 

[hedrick]

Everyone who has been paying any attention whatsoever to the literature knows that natural immunity is better than injected temporary immunity. But there were billions of dollars to be made, so we couldn't have that. Now, after widespread injection of much of the population, the "variants" began.

To be clear, vaccines aren’t injected immunity. They trigger the same mechanisms to develop immunity as the disease. Whether there are differences in effectiveness or length isn’t clear yet.

Unfortunately, immunity isn’t 100%. I saw a recent estimate that 80 to 85% of adults show signs of immunity. Yet we have a serious situation in Maint states.

 

[loveofourlord]

Everyone who has been paying any attention whatsoever to the literature knows that natural immunity is better than injected temporary immunity. But there were billions of dollars to be made, so we couldn't have that. Now, after widespread injection of much of the population, the "variants" began.

Really because give me a mechanism for why non MRNA vaccines would be worse then the actual ones it's the same mechanism the same virus on both sides. The body isn't magickal, it can't tell a live virus from a dead one or respond differently. MRNA I might give you depending on how they work, as my understanding they are targeting specific proteins, rather then the whole virus like the normal vaccine would so a mutation wouldn't necessarily effect your ability to be immune if it doesn't target a area you have antibodies for.

 

[stevil]

What of the unvaccinated that have recovered ?

The death rate in unvaccinated is around 1%, meaning that 99% recover.
So if everyone in USA gets the disease you will have about 3.3 million dead and of those that survive, they will have the coveted "natural immunity"

Pfizer vaccine is supposed to be around 90% effective two weeks after the second vaccine, which would mean, if everyone in USA were at the stage of two weeks after the second injection and then all were exposed to the virus, then 33 million people would catch the disease. If the death rate were 1% (same as for unvaccinated) then 330,000 people would die (This is much less than have already died in USA).

But it seams the severity of the disease in the vaccinated is less than in the unvaccinated.
"there is evidence that vaccination may make illness less severe for those who are vaccinated and still get sick. The risk of infection, hospitalization, and death are all much lower in vaccinated people compared to unvaccinated."
So the deaths would be much less than 330,000 if everyone were properly vaccinated.

Also the R0 (the rate of spread) would be much less, it might even go below 1 which would mean that the disease would peter out and disappear well before everyone gets exposed.
Hard to quantify, but it seems, with the vaccination, if it were available at the onset and if people took it rather than refused it then USA would have had possibly much less than 10,000 deaths, probably even less than 1,000. (I am of course just guessing on these numbers)

 

[Handmaid for Jesus]

The death rate in unvaccinated is around 1%, meaning that 99% recover.
So if everyone in USA gets the disease you will have about 3.3 million dead and of those that survive, they will have the coveted "natural immunity"

But people unvaccinated who have recovered/"survived" from the disease have natural immunity.

 

[Subduction Zone]

To a first approximation, natural immunity is probably at least as good as immunization. But let’s look at numbers. The US has had 13% of the people known infected. Surely there are more cases, particularly asymptomatic, so maybe we have 30 to 40 percent. That’s not enough. And it’s not clear that immunity from asymptomatic cases is as good. Unfortunately you can’t add percentages. We have 53% vaccinated. If around 1/3 of the others have the same degree of immunity from the disease. Thats 66% total. Still not enough. Natural immunity is a help, but I don’t want to continue the epidemic long enough for natural immunity to end it.

I also note that looking at national numbers can be misleading. 53% vaccination doesn't mean it’s that way everywhere. There are communities with much lower numbers.

And what the antivaxxers keep ignoring is the cost of natural immunity. Right now natural immunity in the US has cost over 600,000 lives. Immunity through vaccination has caused fewer deaths than I can count on the fingers of one hand. I have natural immunity. I caught Covid at work before vaccinations were available. I recovered no problem. A coworker of mine caught it at the same time that I did. She had a huge problem. She was one of the 600,000. And now I have both natural and vaccination immunity. That has been found to be even stronger.

So yes, natural immunity appears to be stronger. And longer lasting. But at an infinitely higher cost.

 

[Subduction Zone]

But people unvaccinated who have recovered/"survived" from the disease have natural immunity.

And the 3.3 million that died will still be dead. With vaccinations we can avoid that high number.

 

[Handmaid for Jesus]

And the 3.3 million that died will still be dead. With vaccinations we can avoid that high number.

OK, but, don't discount those, like yourself ,that recovered and have natural immunity from having had the disease.

 

[stevil]

But people unvaccinated who have recovered/"survived" from the disease have natural immunity.

Yes, the picture is different for people who have already had the disease and recovered.

From what I have seen/read, people that have recovered from the disease still gain benefits from getting vaccinated, but I don't know how that is quantified i.e. how much that shifts the re-infection rate?
Coronavirus reinfection: What we know about immunity from having COVID and whether you can get it twice
"A CDC report released in August found that unvaccinated people who previously had COVID-19 were about 2.34 times more likely to get reinfected than vaccinated people who've had it."

I don't know how long natural immunity lasts and I don't know how effective it is.

For Pfizer, it seems that the 90% effectiveness diminishes overtime and a third booster is necessary after several months. Don't know how long a third booster would last.

Data coming out of Israel suggests a third booster is important.
There was an anecdotal story of some 60 year old lady in USA who after 6 months of second injection went to Mississippi where there is low immunisation rate and presumably high rate of community infection. She caught the disease and died.
So either she wasn't in the 90% or perhaps her immunisation had worn off after 6 months (don't know)

 

[hedrick]

Yes, the picture is different for people who have already had the disease and recovered.

From what I have seen/read, people that have recovered from the disease still gain benefits from getting vaccinated, but I don't know how that is quantified i.e. how much that shifts the re-infection rate?
Coronavirus reinfection: What we know about immunity from having COVID and whether you can get it twice
"A CDC report released in August found that unvaccinated people who previously had COVID-19 were about 2.34 times more likely to get reinfected than vaccinated people who've had it."

I don't know how long natural immunity lasts and I don't know how effective it is.

For Pfizer, it seems that the 90% effectiveness diminishes overtime and a third booster is necessary after several months. Don't know how long a third booster would last.

Data coming out of Israel suggests a third booster is important.
There was an anecdotal story of some 60 year old lady in USA who after 6 months of second injection went to Mississippi where there is low immunisation rate and presumably high rate of community infection. She caught the disease and died.
So either she wasn't in the 90% or perhaps her immunisation had worn off after 6 months (don't know)

I keep pointing to this one article. Sorry, but the data from Israel isn’t so clear that boosters are needed. https://www.covid-datascience.com/p...strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated. As of Sep 2, in Israel, Pfizer was 93 to 97% effective except for one age group that was 90.

Why do all the headlines show it way down? Because there an odd statistics
Problem that can lead to misleading results.

 

[stevil]

I keep pointing to this one article. Sorry, but the data from Israel isn’t so clear that boosters are needed. https://www.covid-datascience.com/p...strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated. As of Sep 2, in Israel, Pfizer was 93 to 97% effective except for one age group that was 90.

Why do all the headlines show it way down? Because there an odd statistics
Problem that can lead to misleading results.

Fantastic article. - Thanks for posting that.

I don't quite understand why Fauci was considering a third booster shot then
Fauci defends COVID boosters, says 3 shots will 'likely' be the new norm
Perhaps he hadn't yet seen this breakdown?

 

[hedrick]

Fantastic article. - Thanks for posting that.

I don't quite understand why Fauci was considering a third booster shot then
Fauci defends COVID boosters, says 3 shots will 'likely' be the new norm
Perhaps he hadn't yet seen this breakdown?

That’s likely. There’s US data suggesting a decline. Comparative Effectiveness of Moderna... But it could have the same issue as the Israel data.

thete has been speculation since the beginning that a booster would be needed, so he might have been expecting to see it. We still don’t know that it isn’t, but the FDA seems to be right in saying it’s not clear yet.

One thing I realized while reading stories about the FDA. They don’t make policy on their own. That’s the CDC. They process applications from drug companies. In this case Pfizer. It sounds like Pfizer didn’t present very convincing data. Fauci was probably looking more broadly at the situation, and not just the data that Pfizer presented.

My sense is that we haven’t heard the end of this. If there’s really a need for boosters we’ll see it soon enough.

 

[Subduction Zone]

OK, but, don't discount those, like yourself ,that recovered and have natural immunity from having had the disease.

I am not. But you do not seem to understand the huge flaws with your argument.

 

[A_Thinker]

Fantastic article. - Thanks for posting that.

I don't quite understand why Fauci was considering a third booster shot then
Fauci defends COVID boosters, says 3 shots will 'likely' be the new norm
Perhaps he hadn't yet seen this breakdown?

They're still figuring it out. It will be that way for awhile. We are still in the midst of it ...

 

[A_Thinker]

I am not. But you do not seem to understand the huge flaws with your argument.

I believe that we would agree that the most important thing now ... is figuring out HOW to keep the unvaccinated safe from the threat of serious COVID sickness and death.

That takes those that already have immunity out of the question.

And I believe that we agree that vaccinating the unvaccinated ... is a better option ... than letting them get the disease unprotected ...

 

[NxNW]

Everyone who has been paying any attention whatsoever to the literature knows that natural immunity is better than injected temporary immunity.

Which literature is this?

 

[TLK Valentine]

But people unvaccinated who have recovered/"survived" from the disease have natural immunity.

Except they don't, especially with the variants.

I've had COVID twice.

 

[TLK Valentine]

Yes.


But if they ARE recovered, they have natural immunity and should not be forced to take the vaccine if they don't want to take it.

That would be true if natural immunity were 100% effective... it's not, but of course it's better than nothing.

Similarly, vaccines are not 100% effective, but are better than nothing.

Now, having natural immunity and a vaccine still isn't 100% effective, but it's better than having one or the other, and certainly much better than nothing.

And since the goal is to do as much as possible to prevent the spread of COVID -- as opposed to doing the bare minimum -- what's wrong with getting a vaccine?

The problem is that people who are recovered do not necessarily want to take the vaccine,no matter if it is free. So they should be able to either choose to take the vaccine or not take the vaccine.The government, imho, should recognize natural immunity and not force the vaccine on these people if they do not want it. It is not hard to understand.

Except it's based on the mistaken belief that "natural immunity" makes a vaccine unnecessary.