Pointless to prep for longer than 14 days?

[Apex]

You never know when a localized minor calamity will occur, like a flood or hurricane. It is wise to have enough resources to weather these relatively short emergencies (under ~14 days). However, if a serious national calamity occurred - one where it becomes apparent no power, fuel, food, or water will be available for several weeks, if not indefinitely - society will fail and people who did not prep (the vast majority) will sweep every house in their cities. Hunger and fear will drive them to be irrational and dangerous. You can't stop millions of scavengers, even with guns.

As such, your stock pile will undoubtedly be raided. You will either die trying to protect it, leave it behind, or hand it all over. In no realistic scenario do you personally get to utilize it fully. As such, I find it quite pointless to stockpile large amounts of goods.

Perhaps the better solution for a large scale disaster would be to have the equipment needed to survive off the land (fishing supplies, water filters, tents, edible wild plant books, etc.)....preferably far away from the city scavengers.

Opinions?

 

[macek]

You are right about marauders and raiders being a major problem. Ideally you would form a prepper group of like-minded people well in advance and form a plan, many of those groups already exist. The problem with living of the land concept is that foraging may not be always available (depends on your locale, time of the year and if the land is polluted, etc...) and you may be sure that you wont be the only one scouring for wild edibles. Knowledge will give you an advantage but that you should accumulate now as later it may be too late, who will have the leasure time of reading when beasts will roam around.. Then there is a castling method or bugging in as they say... History teaches us siege warfare and the number one issue is food and lack of it fuels the disease and exhaustion.. that's when a bigger supply will be a lifesaver. And if you are overrun you can still stick prayer stickers to all that food, maybe a few looters will get the message.

Edit: after giving this some more thought i feel i have written a lot of nonsense. I think it is wise to keep a supply of food and water, not only for oneself but to help others when times get tough with shortage setting in. For that matter a 14 days supply is not enough once you start sharing with other families and we as followers of Christ should share.

 

[Gaz54au]

You never know when a localized minor calamity will occur, like a flood or hurricane. It is wise to have enough resources to weather these relatively short emergencies (under ~14 days). However, if a serious national calamity occurred - one where it becomes apparent no power, fuel, food, or water will be available for several weeks, if not indefinitely - society will fail and people who did not prep (the vast majority) will sweep every house in their cities. Hunger and fear will drive them to be irrational and dangerous. You can't stop millions of scavengers, even with guns.

As such, your stock pile will undoubtedly be raided. You will either die trying to protect it, leave it behind, or hand it all over. In no realistic scenario do you personally get to utilize it fully. As such, I find it quite pointless to stockpile large amounts of goods.

Perhaps the better solution for a large scale disaster would be to have the equipment needed to survive off the land (fishing supplies, water filters, tents, edible wild plant books, etc.)....preferably far away from the city scavengers.

Opinions?

The bible is a great source of information on being prepare.for example: Proverbs 6:6. Go to the ant, thou sluggard; consider her ways, and be wise:

We need to understand that we need to obey Gods word and provide for our families (and Friends) It is not expensive to have 12months worth of food put away: Beans, rice, wheat and other staples. Stored in Mylar and containers they will last for years.

Next look at where you live and how you would be able to get to a safer area if something where to happen that may in-danger your family.
I have friends that live in the City but have buit a small hut at our property in the country for that reason.
They have a used container and have many supplies for just in case!!!

Preparedness comes from wisdom and knowledge. Read books on preparing, join other prepping blogs and forum. Lean skills and have some fun camping to get the family involved. Get other family and friends together and form a group and if you can buy some land with water away from cities and large towns. Or go to small towns and go to the local church and make friends and have some where to go When or if you have too.

The signs for the End are everywhere so start to prepare now, before it's to late. Pray and seek Gods face for the truth.

Hope this has helped.
Blessings
Gaz

 

[pat34lee]

Perhaps the better solution for a large scale disaster would be to have the equipment needed to survive off the land (fishing supplies, water filters, tents, edible wild plant books, etc.)....preferably far away from the city scavengers.

Opinions?

Which way depends on the type of disaster and the number of people looking for food. If there are many people who are mobile, then hunting and fishing will only work so long.

Imagine a few tens of thousands of hunters just from a major city or two spreading out and looking for something to shoot and eat. Game animals would virtually disappear in short order. So would edible birds and fish. Anything left would be scared off or back into the deep woods/swamps where not many would chase them.

I think most people in huge cities would starve or be killed before they would leave. Anyway, without transportation, it would be hazardous to try leaving, not to mention a long trek.

 

[SavedByGrace3]

I guess we could go one of two paths here:

• Disobey God's command to care for our families needs (after all, whats the use?), and then in time of need expect God to bless our lack of obedient faith.
• Obey God's command to care for our families needs (obey in faith!), and then in time of need know that God will bless our obedient faith and protect us.
  
  Hebrews 11, speaking of Noah, seems to support the first approach.

Hebrews 11:7 KJV
7 By faith Noah, being warned of God of things not seen as yet, moved with fear, prepared an ark to the saving of his house; by the which he condemned the world, and became heir of the righteousness which is by faith.

(note: the Greek word for "fear" is to be understood to mean "be circumspect" literally means he "looked around" and based on what He saw, he acted accordingly.)

Noah believed God's warnings of what was coming due to the wickedness. Believing God about the coming flood caused Noah to fear: a logical and expected reaction! But it was the fear born of faith. What we see today is a world going equally wicked. "As in the days of Noah..."

Luke 17:26 KJV
26 And as it was in the days of Noe, so shall it be also in the days of the Son of man.

So like Noah, we ought to believe God and fear. Not a fear born of doubt ("what is the use? marauders are going to get us anyway..."), but a fear born of faith (believing God, prepare for what is coming)...

Knowing what is coming, whether it is calamity, depression, persecution, or marauders does not release us from the command to care for our families.

1 Timothy 5:8 KJV
8 But if any provide not for his own, and specially for those of his own house, he hath denied the faith, and is worse than an infidel.


Be "circumspect."
Do as Noah did. "Look around," at what is happening. Believe God, and act accordingly.

 

[Pappy&Me]

You are right about marauders and raiders being a major problem. Ideally you would form a prepper group of like-minded people well in advance and form a plan, many of those groups already exist. The problem with living of the land concept is that foraging may not be always available (depends on your locale, time of the year and if the land is polluted, etc...) and you may be sure that you wont be the only one scouring for wild edibles. Knowledge will give you an advantage but that you should accumulate now as later it may be too late, who will have the leasure time of reading when beasts will roam around.. Then there is a castling method or bugging in as they say... History teaches us siege warfare and the number one issue is food and lack of it fuels the disease and exhaustion.. that's when a bigger supply will be a lifesaver. And if you are overrun you can still stick prayer stickers to all that food, maybe a few looters will get the message.

Edit: after giving this some more thought i feel i have written a lot of nonsense. I think it is wise to keep a supply of food and water, not only for oneself but to help others when times get tough with shortage setting in. For that matter a 14 days supply is not enough once you start sharing with other families and we as followers of Christ should share.

I agree with both post for different reasons.

 

[tturt]

Find for some it would take a lot for them to leave the city because they're comfortable with the concrete and afraid of all those trees. So if you live outside the city, it's another thing to consider when they arrive at your doorstep.

 

[Pappy&Me]

There are drones and other devices that now make it impossible to hide anywhere. So we don't stock up but we do try to garden and have a couple weeks supplies on hand.
Far as stocking up for some gangs to come and take it all is not in our plans.
Only a community even has a chance at surviving the hordes looking for food. Good people turn bad in survival mode. A man will kill if he sees his kid dying of starvation.

 

[Unix]

I would think it's possible to run out of some things on a really long term: A bit rare books that You've chosen carefully, some of the business opportunities that only come up under certain circumstances, the parts of the possibilities to keep the Sole trader firm active that are only going to happen in one way and which therefore requires for others to realize that way at some point instead of postponing decades, can run out of internet for a bit longer than 14 days, also can run out for long term of anywhere to download Bible Study software books

 

[SavedByGrace3]

There are drones and other devices that now make it impossible to hide anywhere. So we don't stock up but we do try to garden and have a couple weeks supplies on hand.
Far as stocking up for some gangs to come and take it all is not in our plans.
Only a community even has a chance at surviving the hordes looking for food. Good people turn bad in survival mode. A man will kill if he sees his kid dying of starvation.

I have tried to impress this fact on people in my books. Even Christians will do things they would have never imagined they could do. I have questioned dedicated pastors and believers and most of them, if they are honest, will admit that they will do anything it takes to keep their families alive. I stress this because it would seem to give you two choices. You will either be a prepper or you will be a thief/murderer. If we choose not to prep, then we have decided that theivery and possible murder is our plan. Hard words.. maybe. But a law of life seems to be that you will hope for the best but plan for the worst. I realize there is a possiblity that criminals may break in and steal what you have done. But they could do that now. Do we not work and take care of business for fear of what men might do? Or do we act in faith for the best, doing what the lord has commanded us to do (care for our families)? We cannot disobey the Lord's command for fear of what men might do. We do not know what that the Lord has something planned for our preps. We may never use them. Perhaps we will perish and the Lord use these preps for some other good. I don't know. I do know if we do not prep for whatever reason, then we are first disobediant, and second not acting in faith that God will cause these things to work for our good. It is no great burden for us to prep. I just spent 75 bucks on a dozen cans of canned hamburger. An investment. Where will it go? I do not know the future, but if there is a 1 in 10 chance that it will go into some hungry child, then thank God!

 

[bugkiller]

Depends on what you prep for. I had a neighbor say I was preparing for a ---- hit the fan event simply because I work at getting my soil fertile so I can grow food. One of the things I think are very important is great neighbors.

bugkiller

 

[gideon123]

I would not let "raiding" be a deterrent to prepping. Just adjust your strategy. Most people who come to steal will only take what's obvious. Separate your supplies into various sacks and hide some of them.

 

[drjean]

Even for a natural disaster you might wish to extend your prepping for longer. After hurricane Andrew I lived in my "front yard" for 3 months. You cannot expect anything from FEMA nor the government. Plus, you do not want to be herded into a Kill City and need to be confident and prepared to stay put. (See youtube Kill Cities by Rothschild and Rockefeller). It was martial law and an area of the AF base so most in my neighborhood who were around carried and protected that way too. The closest stores were almost an hour away and those who merely thought they were ok didn't have any prep and cleaned out the stores shopping. Plus if you left your home, it would be looted of what you did have, so you had to stay or lose it (not that we had anything worth keeping except survival stuff.) Water is key. A gallon a day per person/animal will generally cover cooking cleaning drinking. If it's summer, plan for more need.

 

[Bee_in_the_Light]

There is nigh-infinite number of possible scenarios between "localized minor calamity" and "a serious national calamity" (as described by the OP). So of course it makes sense to prepare for longer term than just 14 days. Even if you don't get to "personally utilize it fully", what if you had full year's worth of supplies and got to utilize half of it personally? I think that would be much preferable to running out after two weeks.

Because, honestly, I see "no realistic scenario", where streets are nationwide filled with looting hordes after two weeks. In my honest opinion that is pure fantasy. I don't mean to sound rude, so sorry if I do.

In my opinion there are two key factors to not just surviving, but societal rebounding in a post-SHTF world.

First is being self-sufficient pre-SHTF. Aiming at producing everything you consume is something that already makes you prepared in most scenarios. It is hard to achieve for most of us, but it is something we should aim at. No need for emergency stockpiles, if you already produce everything you eat.

Second is maximizing productivity and surplus. They are key to the success of our current societies. Essentially it means going a little against the "common wisdom" associated with SHTF-scenarios. In most "serious national calamity" -scenarios my first priority would be to get my family to our family farm, and make sure everything is ready for the next season. Because at any case we have a full year's worth of fuel and oils, seeds and fertilizers ready. It means we would be able to produce ~20+ tons of grain next year. Our neighbors there would produce even more.

This surplus of food achieved through industrial level productivity would allow us all to keep huge numbers of people fed. Which in turn would give us lots of time to adjust to producing our own fuel, iron etc. The surplus would allow for separation of tasks, essentially meaning we could have as many people as is necessary on security/defense, food production etc.

Before industrial era, the biggest hindrance to production was lack of labor.

So even if the most unlikely of scenarios (total collapse of society) did happen, the only people I would be afraid of would be the ones, who somehow got AFV's and/or artillery. This of course depends a whole lot on where you live, what you are capable of doing etc.

There are scenarios, where my idea of preparing would not be effective. These include "small ice age" type of natural changes (1860's was the last time people were starving to death in huge numbers), which might lead to crops failing several years in a row. But even then, keeping up industrial production capability would be essential to allow fast rebound of society once things start looking better.

 

[drjean]

After Hurricane Andrew nearly flattened extreme Southern Florida mainland, I lived on "prepping" know-how and supplies for 3 weeks "in my front yard"...until we could with other's help pound and bend back the garage door so it would close and we had "shelter" at least. Yes, we were under martial law (but the old school martial law, not what they pretend it is today)... and yes, there were looters we 'chased' with firearms out of our vacant neighbor's houses (what was left of/in them) and away from ours.
By then the government had built a tent city and rounded up the indigent etc to be sheltered and fed (and come down with typhoid fever) and the National Guard had captured many looters, and carried a few dead ones off too, no questions asked.

 

[CassiusCritzer]

Here is a population density map of the USA. I recommend you look at a full size one.
https://mapcollection.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/us-population-density.png
Now if the entire USA collapsed, FEMA plans to first distribute food and water to urban centers as 80% of US citizens live in urban centers. 40% live on coastlines.

Well, that would rapidly fail as in a collapse primary consideration is given to critical infrastructure.

Critical infrastructure - Wikipedia

These folks have to get first dibs on food, water, and medicine to maintain COG continuity of government.

Now looking at the map, pinpoint where you live. If it is a peak surrounded by peaks of densely populated population, then your chances of survival are low. If you live near a peak but where it is flat, the chances are migrating refugees will flood into your region.

Or if you are like me, you are FAR from the coasts with nominal peaks or even no peaks. There might be no need to bugout. If you did bugout then this is a worse scenario as you need seed, food, water, tools, and other supplies like medicine and shelter.

The safest way to bug out and avoid the throng is via rivers as you could bring supplies in a boat and follow the current and even use sails. In a pinch, what they did in history was have guys using ropes tug the craft from the banks. While other guys poled shallow sections or use oars.

If you live inland and if there is a qood aquifer and if the rainfall supports robust agriculture and you have at least two seasons of plantings to harvest, then you might thrive as the first settlers thrived who arrived in the West in Kentucky then Ohio then Indiana then Tennessee then Illinois then Missouri, etc.

 

[CassiusCritzer]

Looking at the map, and based upon the criteria I mentioned, then your next consideration is two fold. How many miles can I reasonably travel on the average amount I keep in my gas tank? And what are the chances of being stalled in traffic under collapse conditions? And how far can I reasonably hike with a spouse and children per day?

Next where can I go that is welcoming to my family? What what makes me think they would want my family? Do I have anything valuable to bribe with?

 

[CassiusCritzer]

BMI is a measure for body mass index. Americans notoriously have a high BMI which is the result of overeating. So you can go many days without food.

In fact when you are fasting, GOD has designed your metabolism to dampen and thus the fustrating plateau effect that keeps you from losing weight is a survival mechanism.

However sustained low caloric intake results in plummeting blood glucose levels, when this gets too low, the hypoglycemia causes loss of consciousness.

Under a collapse situation, the primary issue is adequate hydration that is pure and potable. Purity means lacking toxic substances and pathogens. Potable means lacking a substance rendering the water undrinkable.

You can go about 48 hours without drinking water as long as it is not hot but after this milestone and especially under workload, then deleterious effects begin. At 72 hours and with low blood sugar, staggering begins, blood pressure falls. If you sit and then stand up suddenly, due to hypovolemia, you will pass out. Clouded judgement happens. You stop sweating. Accidents increase. Heat exhaustion happens. Vision is blurred. Death follows.

Millions could die from these joint processes while bugging out. Many would wait too long in urban areas due to feelings of helplessness causing inertia Coupled with clouded judgement.

That theory suggests massive deaths and contagion prone regions with Massive supplies still intact for survivors.

 

[CassiusCritzer]

Now consider all of that. The goal isn't necessarily the same for all people. The goal for the family in the interior of the Midwest and away from many large cities is to at least have a month of food and water. Since most without food and water would expire, then the threat lessens as time goes on as most have little to no ancestral skills. They will run out of water primarily and unless they find a source that is pure and potable plus enough food to sustain life, then while walking as gas runs out, then there is little chance of them reaching your home.

But then what is the problem? Your family needs food and water to last until autumn when the harvest is complete.

What do I mean by that? As the pioneers on the prairie, you couldn't relax until you were certain you had collected every wild edible for medicine, crafts, food, etc and then harvested every crop and then harvested wild game and fish and livestock to a sufficient amount to get you through winter and hopefully the following winter. Why? Because crops fail due to blight, drought, animal damage, lack of pollination, excess rainfall,hail, fire, theft, mistakes, frost, wind damage, etc. All of those things could make you go bust. That term was typically used by folks who tried their hand at running a homestead and through bad luck,mishaps, theft, and their own errors, had to pack and try elsewhere. The term go bust dates to the 1840s and means two things, to go bankrupt and steam boilers went bust when worked too hard. You used up your wealth and you worked so hard it was ruined and burst your dreams.

So the goal is not just one thing but a series of goals based upon achieving milestones.

 

[pat34lee]

Here is a population density map of the USA. I recommend you look at a full size one.

Now if the entire USA collapsed, FEMA plans to first distribute food and water to urban centers as 80% of US citizens live in urban centers. 40% live on coastlines.

The safest way to bug out and avoid the throng is via rivers as you could bring supplies in a boat and follow the current and even use sails. In a pinch, what they did in history was have guys using ropes tug the craft from the banks. While other guys poled shallow sections or use oars.

If you live inland and if there is a qood aquifer and if the rainfall supports robust agriculture and you have at least two seasons of plantings to harvest, then you might thrive as the first settlers thrived who arrived in the West in Kentucky then Ohio then Indiana then Tennessee then Illinois then Missouri, etc.

Nowhere will be completely safe. Out west, you have to
think of the Yellowstone Caldera and large earthquakes
in the midwest from the mining and fracking.

There will be pirates on the rivers, lakes and offshore
and highwaymen and gangs on the roads. And don't
forget the crazies and the animals in the wilderness.