Next German Chancellor?

[Nithavela]

Why is the FDP not an alternative for you?

Every time the FDP gets into government, it uses its power mainly to pay cash outs for its donors and associates.

 

[Nithavela]

I was speaking with a natural Green voter yesterday. He said he will vote SPD this time because of ABB and also the Green's ridiculous economic agenda. What worried me about what he said was that he envisaged an SPD-led coalition with the Greens and Die Linke (The Commies). Die Linke wants to come out of NATO and make friends with Russia instead and reduce defense spending.

The problem is that the Greens cannot ally with the FDP. So if you want the CDU out then you have to look leftwards to make that happen. The CDU does need a shake-up, and indeed Lashet has proven very unpopular with the voters, but it remains the lynchpin of sensible government in Germany.

Die Linke are not communists, but they are pretty far left.

I'll be voting for the green party and expect a red-green coalition with either the FDP or Linke. Both is fine, as long as the Green and SPD parties reign in their junior partner.

Anything except CDU for me. They have proven that they are unable to govern competently in a crisis, which was their main selling point. And there are more crisis to come soon. Maybe a term in the opposition will do them good.

 

[mindlight]

Die Linke are not communists, but they are pretty far left.

Granted they are democratic so not Bolshevik but Marx allowed for a democratic transition to a Marxist state in countries with strong democratic institutions like modern Germany (though not the Germany of his time). There is an extremist fringe that goes back to the old East German Communist Party though. Their basic goals still read as an updated form of Marxist-Leninist drivel to me. It has never worked wherever it has been tried, they are antiNATO, pro-Russia, high tax, high spend Robin Hood Economics that would bankrupt Germany.

I'll be voting for the green party and expect a red-green coalition with either the FDP or Linke. Both is fine, as long as the Green and SPD parties reign in their junior partner.

None of those parties are really in favor of Black Zero (schwarze Null) economics. All are inclined to lower defense spending and talk in terms of European independence from the USA effectively splitting the NATO alliance which is crucial for world stability. So this alliance would break the economy and undermine German security in return for some marginally better Green policies and some kind of action on Germany's deep wealth inequalities.

Anything except CDU for me. They have proven that they are unable to govern competently in a crisis, which was their main selling point. And there are more crisis to come soon. Maybe a term in the opposition will do them good.

The CDU definitely needs a break from power and a bit of shakeup. Also, there is not yet a clear successor to Merkel that has the same kind of popular appeal. After so long in power, it is easy to find examples of incompetence and there should be some kind of consequence for these, but without them, the country lurches towards the Left and to an uncertain future. I would want them to be a junior partner in an Olaf Scholz - SPD-led, Schwarz, Rot, Gelb coalition including the FDP rather than the Greens.

 

[Nithavela]

Granted they are democratic so not Bolshevik but Marx allowed for a democratic transition to a Marxist state in countries with strong democratic institutions like modern Germany (though not the Germany of his time). There is an extremist fringe that goes back to the old East German Communist Party though. Their basic goals still read as an updated form of Marxist-Leninist drivel to me. It has never worked wherever it has been tried, they are antiNATO, pro-Russia, high tax, high spend Robin Hood Economics that would bankrupt Germany.



None of those parties are really in favor of Black Zero (schwarze Null) economics. All are inclined to lower defense spending and talk in terms of European independence from the USA effectively splitting the NATO alliance which is crucial for world stability. So this alliance would break the economy and undermine German security in return for some marginally better Green policies and some kind of action on Germany's deep wealth inequalities.



The CDU definitely needs a break from power and a bit of shakeup. Also, there is not yet a clear successor to Merkel that has the same kind of popular appeal. After so long in power, it is easy to find examples of incompetence and there should be some kind of consequence for these, but without them, the country lurches towards the Left and to an uncertain future. I would want them to be a junior partner in an Olaf Scholz - SPD-led, Schwarz, Rot, Gelb coalition including the FDP rather than the Greens.

All future is uncertain.

I'm not amazed by the FDP because my parents used to vote for them "because they'll lower the taxes" and then they realised that they don't own the hotels who got their taxes lowered.

 

[Red Gold]

Sunday 26th of September 2021 has come nearer ...

 

[Andrewn]

The Liberal Party of Canada will form a minority government:

Canada election: Trudeau stays in power but Liberals fall short of majority

Liberals won 47% of the seats. (They are perhaps equivalent to the German SPD.) Conservatives (equivalent to the CDU) won 35% of the seats. NDP (equivalent to the Left) won 7% of the seats. PPC (equivalent to AfD) won no seats. The Greens won < 1% of the seats.

 

[Red Gold]

I'm not amazed by the FDP because my parents used to vote for them "because they'll lower the taxes" and then they realised that they don't own the hotels who got their taxes lowered.

When was that?

 

[Nithavela]

When was that?

Couple of elections ago, but I don't see how they have changed.

 

[Andrewn]

Sunday 26th of September 2021 has come nearer ...

Do German elections involve a 2nd round, as in France, if none of the directly elected candidates in a district gets 50% of the votes?

 

[Nithavela]

Do German elections involve a 2nd round, as in France, if none of the directly elected candidates in a district gets 50% of the votes?

Not in this election, since in this election, the vote is for the members of parliament, not for specific candidates. The parliament will vote in the Bundeskanzler.

 

[Andrewn]

Not in this election, since in this election, the vote is for the members of parliament, not for specific candidates. The parliament will vote in the Bundeskanzler.

My understanding is that you have 2 votes: one for a specific candidate and the 2nd vote is for a party list. So, the specific candidates can win with < 50% of the votes in their particular districts?

 

[Nithavela]

My understanding is that you have 2 votes: one for a specific candidate and the 2nd vote is for a party list. So, the specific candidates can win with < 50% of the votes in their particular districts?

Yes, it is a simple majority vote.

 

[Red Gold]

Yes, it is a simple majority vote.

Yes, so it is exactly.

 

[mindlight]

So the vote is tomorrow. It is quite exciting really with no one able to predict the outcome. The SPD and CDU seem to be neck and neck with Olaf Scholz preferred over Laschet by most Germans. AnnaLena Baerbocks party dived a little after the television discussions. She comes across as a little like an angry housewife who will just go for the jugular on anyone she disagrees with.

I was talking to people all last week while traveling across Germany. I met people who are very angry at the corruption in the CDU but so also with the other major parties also. The Environment, Poverty and Inequality, and the problem of Corruption are all hot issues. People do not like Laschet and are more inclined to trust Scholz but the commitment to the CDU party remains strong.

My biggest issue is Defense which most Germans do not regard as a priority. I want a party that will spend more and that will keep Germany integrated into the NATO command structures. There is a danger with America's shift to the Indo-Pacific region and Britain's exit from Europe that Europe is more vulnerable than ever before. It is less obvious now than for 70 years that NATO would actually defend Germany if it were attacked. Scholz, the CDU, and the FDP all seem to understand this. The Greens and Die Link are living on another planet when it comes to this issue as are many in the SPD. There is talk of a Euro army to fill the gap but only the French have an effective fighting force in Europe right now and maybe that is not enough. Also, the coordination of these nations may be problematic. As one ex-SPD supporter told me Europe is an economic, social, and cultural thing. A military role would sabotage its true purpose and power.

Since no party will win an absolute majority tomorrow the combinations that might emerge are quite diverse. My nightmare is Die Linke, SPD, and the Greens which would be a massive security risk. Even though I prefer the CDU policies they have not been that good at actually implementing anything. Digitalization is a joke in Germany. Also, there have been a lot of corruption scandals and a time out of the dominant position may be good for them. Scholz seems sane and I hope he ends up Chancellor with the Greens and either the FDP or the CDU also. The ideal is probably SPD-Green-FDP but it is hard to envisage the FDP working with the Greens.

 

[Red Gold]

So the vote is tomorrow. It is quite exciting really with no one able to predict the outcome. The SPD and CDU seem to be neck and neck with Olaf Scholz preferred over Laschet by most Germans. AnnaLena Baerbocks party dived a little after the television discussions. She comes across as a little like an angry housewife who will just go for the jugular on anyone she disagrees with.

Well observed!
I have already voted by postal vote.

 

[Andrewn]

Scholz seems sane and I hope he ends up Chancellor with the Greens and either the FDP or the CDU also. The ideal is probably SPD-Green-FDP but it is hard to envisage the FDP working with the Greens.

I suspect things will not change too much. Now the government in a coalition of CDU & SPD. I expect a coalition of SPD & CDU w/ a Scholz win.

 

[Nithavela]

I suspect things will not change too much. Now the government in a coalition of CDU & SPD. I expect a coalition of SPD & CDU w/ a Scholz win.

Probably. They'll just switch seats and call it progress.

 

[mindlight]

Probably. They'll just switch seats and call it progress.

Given that different combinations are possible the negotiations are going to more important and less predictable.

 

[Nithavela]

Given that different combinations are possible the negotiations are going to more important and less predictable.

The only thing that would surprise me less than a another Große Koalition with SPD and CDU would be the CDU allying with the FDP and the AFD, because in germany, the "center" parties always ally with the far right when pushed into a corner.

 

[Red Gold]

Here in Germany it is Election Day already