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Featured Michael Moore Doesn't Belive Biden is Ahead.

Discussion in 'Current News & Events (Articles Required)' started by Bobber, Oct 30, 2020.

  1. Bobber

    Bobber Well-Known Member

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    Don't care for Moore's politics BUT he tells it like it is generally speaking when he talks about polls. The Dems like to spread their delusion that everything is fine and great but Moore KNOWS better. I think what he's saying here to Dems is don't drink the Kool Aide and it's a false narrative that Trump is really losing. And yet so many quote the polls, the polls, THE POLLS!

    Michael Moore doesn't believe the polls showing Biden ahead of Trump
     
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  2. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    Even if Biden's lead is cut in half he's winning easily.
     
  3. dqhall

    dqhall Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Hillary got more votes than Trump in the 2016 election. Trump took Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia. These states are currently leaning toward Biden.
     
  4. Arc F1

    Arc F1 Let the righteous man arise from slumber Supporter

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    They were wrong last time and wrong this time. Trump for the win.
     
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  5. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    It's going to be a landslide for Biden, who will prove to be equally as incompetent as Trump. He's likely to take PA, FL, NC, GA, MI, WI, AZ and maybe even IA and TX. The Trump campaign blew through $1 billion before September and achieved nothing with it. Couple that with Trump's inconsistent Corona response and he is clearly going to lose. He's a failed President in the vain of Carter.
     
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  6. paul1149

    paul1149 that your faith might rest in the power of God Supporter

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    Biden is whistling past the graveyard, trying to beat the clock on his many scandals and his fraudulent campaign. The media is doing yeoman's work to help him, but can it last another five days? Probably yes, considering how partisan and dishonest corporate media and Big Tech are. But the upset factor is how many are no longer dependent on corporate power centers for information. The polls are predictably beginning to tighten, as the pollsters finally have to get honest in order to avoid egg on their faces. Moore, wrong as he is on so many things, sees through the Democrat-media-big tech fog and realizes danger.
     
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  7. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    To believe Trump is going to win you not only have to believe that every single poll is wrong but you also have to believe they're wrong outside their 95% confidence rate. Pollsters expect 1 in 20 polls to be wrong, meaning the real numbers are outside the margin of error. To believe Trump is winning you have to believe 19 in 20 polls are wrong, which is an absurd proposition. Especially so when the polls were right, within the margin of error, in 2016. The only polls that were off were in Wisconsin but that is to be expected because 5% of polls are simply wrong.
     
  8. Bobber

    Bobber Well-Known Member

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    OK That's your take on it. And you're basing this on polls?
     
  9. Bobber

    Bobber Well-Known Member

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    And so you don't agree with Micheal Moore. OK we'll see what happens.
     
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  10. Bobber

    Bobber Well-Known Member

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    So the question I have if it doesn't play out the way you think will you ever trust the polls again?
     
  11. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    I'm basing it on polling and the sense I get about where things stand in Michigan where I live. But mostly polls.
     
  12. Bobber

    Bobber Well-Known Member

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    And the Dem Micheal Moore does warn you be very careful how much faith you put in them.
     
  13. Redwingfan9

    Redwingfan9 Well-Known Member

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    I am duely skeptical of some of the polling, including Biden up 17 in Wisconsin. That just isn't believable, a clear outlyer. That said, the 2016 polls were right within the margin of error. I see no reason to distrust polling, much of which shows Biden up outside the margin of error.
     
  14. dqhall

    dqhall Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I can survive a blue wave. Trump is dishonest like Nixon was.
     
  15. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    Yeah, I don't care for Moore at all, but he is a rare Hollywood personality in that, in the midst of his pontifications about politics, he still retains some connection to reality and is willing to include it in his public remarks.
     
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  16. Yekcidmij

    Yekcidmij Polymath

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    I'm not sure that he's right, but there is a lot of room this year for sampling error in the polls. Specifically, there's the complications of covid on voter turn out and mail in ballots. In some states it looks like mail in ballots have already exceeded that state's total number from 2016 (More than 9 million Texans have cast ballots so far, surpassing the state’s total votes cast in 2016) which may mean that models of "likely voters" in the polls has a larger margin of error that may be appreciated or that the modeling of "likely voters" is way off. I think there's also a legitimate possibility of "shy voters" who either refuse to participate in polls when contacted or "lie" to the pollster.

    While I don't know if Michael Moore is correct, I think there is reason to be suspicious of the margin of error in polling and that the margin of error may be an unknown degree wider than is thought. I'm not sure which candidate that favors though and I'm not sure anyone else really knows either.
     
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  17. Yekcidmij

    Yekcidmij Polymath

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    But the margin of error is a function of sampling error, and problems of random sampling error could be exacerbated this year by covid specific problems on mail in ballots and in-person voter turn out. I'm suspicious of the margin of error this year and think it may be wider than believed, though I don't know how much and to whose favor (and I could be wrong).

    So it could be that the issue is not a random sampling error but a model selection error, the latter of which is not necessarily captured in the "margin of error."
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2020
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  18. Yekcidmij

    Yekcidmij Polymath

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    The mail in ballot numbers so far would suggest this is the case since, overwhelmingly, Democrats have said they prefer and plan on mail in ballots, and mail in numbers have been big so far, while Republicans have overwhelmingly said they prefer and plan on voting in person. Trump may need an unusually high voter turn out on election day to pull it off.
     
  19. Sparagmos

    Sparagmos Well-Known Member

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    The polls don’t take into account voter suppression, mail ballot issues, ballots thrown out for minor errors, people who don’t make it to the polls due to emergencies or schedule changes, etc. So it’s quite possible that the polls could be correct, and Trump wins. The polls tell us how people want or intend to vote, not who actually is able to get their vote in and counted. Republicans are trying to prevent legitimate ballots from being counted.
     
  20. Sistrin

    Sistrin We are such stuff as dreams are made on... Supporter

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    What we believe is only one poll matters, and Trump is going to win that one.
     
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