If you're going to get angsty about the math, you might try to use correct math to prove your point. The mathematical model you are using doesn't account for how long the respective populations have been exposed to Covid, and it double counts the vaccinated deaths in the unvaccinated deaths calculation.
The 4,307,361 population that has been vaccinated is only as of July 20. Assuming vaccination began in late January (with no one being fully vaccinated until late February), and vaccination occurred at an even rate the average number of people vaccinated in Massachusetts since the vaccination program began, from the period of March 2021 through July 2021, there are would be 2,153,681. 2,153,681 people for 6 months is 12,922,083 person-months. Assuming the 80 vaccinated are the only ones dead, it would be 1 dead for every 161,526 person-months of people in Massachusetts.
For the unvaccinated, there are 12 months of a fully unvaccinated population (~7.1 million people), plus 6 months (March-July) of an average of 4,946,320 unvaccinated people. That amounts to 114,877,917 person-months for the unvaccinated. You would need to subtract out the 80 vaccinated who died (you counted them twice, once for the vaccinated death count and once in the unvaccinated death count), so you have 18,041 unvaccinated deaths in 114,877,917 person-months for the unvaccinated, or 1 dead for every 6367 person-months of people in Massachusetts.
Assuming the actual numbers of vaccinated deaths and vaccination rate are correct, it's 25x difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated, not 145x difference.
This particular data set still looks good for the vaccine effectiveness (assuming all of the numbers reported are correct), but you're off by a factor of 6.
Of course, the way Covid deaths are counted would have to remain constant for that to be true, and, of course, in light of the vaccine roll-out, they needed to change how deaths are counted:
The Department of Public Health changed how it counts COVID-19 deaths in Massachusetts long-term care facilities on Thursday, aligning with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control's national definition — and in the process, cutting the state's cumulative long-term care death toll by 1,220.
In Thursday's weekly report, DPH started using the federal standard for long-term care deaths, which counts all residents of a facility who died from COVID complications in a facility, hospital or other location, but does not count those who recovered from COVID-19 and later died.
...
Up to this point, Massachusetts had counted all long-term care residents who contracted the virus at some point before they died — even those who recovered between their bout with the illness and their death — as COVID-19 long-term care deaths. The new standard mirrors the CDC's recommendation and that in place in most other states, according to the Baker administration.
"By aligning the long-term death count on the state's weekly dashboard with federal definitions for long-term care facilities, Massachusetts is aligning with the definition that other states use," DPH State Epidemiologist Catherine Brown said in a statement. "DPH also believes this definition better supports long-term care facilities now that so many residents and staff are vaccinated to closely monitor the effect of COVID in a well-vaccinated but vulnerable population."
As a result of the change, the cumulative long-term care death toll in Massachusetts will be listed at 5,502 as of April 12, compared to the 6,722 reported as of April 5 in the final weekly report under the previous state standards. The update does not appear to change the overall cumulative COVID-19 death toll in Massachusetts, which increased from 17,427 in Wednesday's daily report to 17,432 in Thursday's.
DPH Changes Counting Method For Long-Term Care Deaths | WBUR News
They changed the way deaths were counted, they dropped the number of reported deaths in April, but they left the overall death count intact, meaning they were overcounting deaths in 2020 vs how they're counting them since April 2021. Based on the April data change, it appears that as many as 20% of the deaths counted through April 2021 wouldn't be counted in today's metrics.
It would really be 14,766 deaths against 114,877,917 person-months yielding a death for every 7,779 person-months. Or 20x better to be vaccinated than unvaccinated. Still better, but a far cry from the 145x you were claiming.
Don't worry, i won't count the rule change in how Massachusetts counts their deaths against you for your math. Who would've thunk that Massachusetts would change the rules as to how they count their Covid deaths?
