Lumber Price Shift Suggests a 'Bubble That Has Burst'

[Johnboy60]

I'm going build a fence.

After record highs, wood prices are plummeting, suggesting highs were just 'temporary shocks'

After hitting record highs, lumber prices are falling fast

 

[variant]

It's weird that people didn't realize this. We're not running out of lumber we just didn't have enough cut and shipped to meet demand for a bit.

Just like we have the capacity to meet the toilet paper, cat food and microchip demand on earth, but it isn't necessarily running fast enough to meet any demand spike.

 

[miamited]

HI johnboy,

I think you'll find those 'rapidly falling prices' are still only at the wholesale commodity level. I was in Lowes just yesterday because I'm waiting for prices to fall to buy a couple of pieces of plywood and some PT lumber to build a small deck. The 3/4 plywood was $76. I didn't even bother to look at the PT lumber because I saw that the plain 2x4 ww stud was over $8. So, unless your market is a lot different than mine, you've still got some waiting to do. However, I am greatly joyed that it should soon be moving down pretty quickly.

The lumber commodity price was over $1,600 in May and 2 days ago crept just under $1,000 for a short period. Right this minute it is $967, but I'd still like to see it go to somewhere around $400 or better. But, it does seem to take some time for those falling commodity prices to be reflected in the store price.

Just as the article states, the prices they're quoting are for July deliveries.

God bless,
Ted

 

[FireDragon76]

Many shortages were caused by Wall Street panicking a year ago and dramatically cutting production. What happened was that the effect of COVID-19 on demand wasn't nearly as dramatic as the panic on Wall Street. The results are shortages of all kinds of things.

 

[durangodawood]

Many shortages were caused by Wall Street panicking a year ago and dramatically cutting production. What happened was that the effect of COVID-19 on demand wasn't nearly as dramatic as the panic on Wall Street. The results are shortages of all kinds of things.

Construction in my area, and I think most areas, was considered an "essential" industry.

I work in that industry and Ive never been so busy as during the pandemic.

 

[Estrid]

Many shortages were caused by Wall Street panicking a year ago and dramatically cutting production. What happened was that the effect of COVID-19 on demand wasn't nearly as dramatic as the panic on Wall Street. The results are shortages of all kinds of things.

Wall Street cut production?

 

[Johnboy60]

I was wanting to start on my fence and now I will have wait longer.

 

[Toynbee]

Wall Street cut production?

LOL - I'm scratching my head at that one too.

 

[Estrid]

LOL - I'm scratching my head at that one too.

Like I've been on Wall St and no sign at all of
a lumber mill.

 

[Toynbee]

Like I've been on Wall St and no sign at all of
a lumber mill.

Well, they used to produce something years ago:

But now, with their electronic tools, I don't think they even produce that anymore.