Let's Keep an Eye on Texas and Mississippi

hislegacy

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has anyone run a regression analysis and checked for othet salient factors, like the location of international airports?

Like George Bush in Houston -Houston’s main airport, George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH) is located across 40.46km², 37km north of the city. It is owned by the City of Houston and serves as the second largest hub for United Airlines in the country after Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport. IAH served more than 40 million passengers in 2017, with 450,383 aircraft movements.

Or DFW? - Covering 69.63km² between the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth in Texas, US, Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) has five terminal buildings with 165 gates in total. The airport is the 12th busiest in the world, serving 67 million passengers in 2017.

Those two of the ten largest in the US?
 
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hislegacy

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As for Mississippi - their rates are falling also:

mississippi.JPG
 
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hedrick

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Unfortunately comparing two states is not so useful, because we can’t tell how much is due to policies, prevalence of variants, cold weather, etc. Looking at the Covidactnow map, it looks like the best areas are warmer ones. Not a surprise, since they’re likely to be doing gatherings outside, which is safer. But anybody can connect differences with anything. I haven’t seen a convincing model of the effect of various things, including masks. My gut feeling is that the biggest contributors are weather and how much people get together, with a small contribution from masks, and growing but countervailing contributions from variants and vaccines.

But the reason I wouldn’t have changed policy in Texas yet is shown by the comparison between Texas snd NJ posted above. Texas consistently shows the same patterns as NJ, but delayed. I’d be worried that that will prove true for the new wave as well. However they may get lucky this time, because of warm weather and vaccinations.
 
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hedrick

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probinson

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My gut feeling is that the biggest contributors are weather and how much people get together, with a small contribution from masks, and growing but countervailing contributions from variants and vaccines.

I tend to believe that this virus, like every other virus before it, is regional and seasonal. I also would say that the more cases there have been in an area, the closer to herd immunity that area is. So places that have had high infection rates are less at risk from a resurgence due to increased herd immunity. Certainly vaccination also plays a role, but let's not forget that there are literally millions upon millions of people that have natural herd immunity.

However, we've been told that we can slow the spread of the virus by masking and distancing. This has proven to be untrue over and over again all over the world in this pandemic.

But the reason I wouldn’t have changed policy in Texas yet is shown by the comparison between Texas snd NJ posted above. Texas consistently shows the same patterns as NJ, but delayed. I’d be worried that that will prove true for the new wave as well. However they may get lucky this time, because of warm weather and vaccinations.

Just curious; when would you change policy?
 
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Akita Suggagaki

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probinson

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probinson

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It's sad what passes for "science" today.

From the article;

Second, masks protect uninfected wearers. Masks form a barrier to large respiratory droplets that could land on exposed mucous membranes of the eye, nose, and mouth.

Unless you're wearing your cloth mask across your eyes like a blindfold, I'm pretty sure the mucous membrane of your eyes are still exposed and not at all protected.

Also, they discount the Danish mask study stating, "More importantly, the study was far too small (ie, enrolled about 0.1% of the population) to assess the community benefit achieved when wearer protection is combined with reduced source transmission from mask wearers to others." while simultaneously citing the infamous hair salon study that included a whopping 139 people, only 67 of which were available for follow up. So the Danish mask study which had over 3,000 people was "far too small" to be of any use while the hair salon study with 67 people is proof-positive masks work.
 
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Akita Suggagaki

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Yes, it has.

In yet another example, Germany not only has a mask mandate, but a medical mask mandate. They have worse infection numbers now than when the medical grade mask mandate was implemented.

How long do we have to pretend that masks "work" in the face of empirical evidence that clearly shows they do not?

View attachment 297117
How do you account for the drop just after the medical mask mandate?
 
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hedrick

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How do you account for the drop just after the medical mask mandate?
Summer and vaccines. Look at the front page of covidactnow. U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker You’ll see that it’s geographic, though Texas is a bit higher than the section they are in, and they have a high rate of the b117 variant. Cases, Data, and Surveillance their numbers are starting to turn up, though it’s too soon to know where it’s really going. U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker Those are danger signs, but they could be lucky.
 
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probinson

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How do you account for the drop just after the medical mask mandate?
Well, if you look at the curve, it was already dropping pretty rapidly prior to the medical mask mandate being implemented.

How do you account for the spike after the medical mask mandate?
 
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Akita Suggagaki

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Well, if you look at the curve, it was already dropping pretty rapidly prior to the medical mask mandate being implemented.

How do you account for the spike after the medical mask mandate?
Fatigue and noncompliance.
 
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probinson

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Fatigue and noncompliance.
Any evidence that Germans are not complying with the mandate? The last available data from early January suggests that 89.5% of Germans report wearing masks almost always or frequently. Many places in Germany impose fines for not wearing a mask.

Masks in Europe 2020 | Statista

So is there any evidence that the nearly 90% mask compliance in Germany has lessened?
 
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Akita Suggagaki

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Any evidence that Germans are not complying with the mandate? The last available data from early January suggests that 89.5% of Germans report wearing masks almost always or frequently. Many places in Germany impose fines for not wearing a mask.

Masks in Europe 2020 | Statista

So is there any evidence that the nearly 90% mask compliance in Germany has lessened?
I cannot find data for February 21. How do you account for the decline and then increase? You had said the curve was already dropping rapidly. Why was it dropping? hedrick says seasonality. Possibly so.
 
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