Kim Jung Un meets with South Korean delegation in pursuit of talks with the US and reunification

[mindlight]

Nuclear weapons allow NK to come to the table on near equal terms in terms of military power.

Not as yet. The Americans could probably destroy most of their arsenal on the ground or in flight. If it came to a nuclear war it is unlikely many if any of the NKs nukes would get through while NK would be utterly destroyed. But South Korea especially does not want a war and seems to have used the Olympics as a way of building bridges rather than destroying them. NK is coming to the table cause the Chinese want a trade deal with the US and stand to lose more by their support of NK than they gain.

 

[Truth7t7]

At the moment this just looks like a play by North Korea. China need American trade more than they need North Korea as an ally and so are not as supportive as they were. The Americans still have their military option on the table. North Koreans are probably starting to starve and the South Koreans are worried about war. NK is probably looking for some kind of pay off. But the game has changed with Trump. This is hard ball now.

Your 100% correct!

China is driving North Korea to the table, they don't want their trade with the western world compromised.

North Korea is an eyesore to communism, I wouldn't even call North Korea a step child of China or Russia.

China is looking for Trump's favor in Tariffs that are being imposed, this is how they are looking to do it, my opinion.

 

[mindlight]

Your 100% correct!

China is driving North Korea to the table, they don't want their trade with the western world compromised.

North Korea is an eyesore to communism, I wouldn't even call North Korea a step child of China or Russia.

China is looking for Trump's favor in Tariffs that are being imposed, this is how they are looking to do it, my opinion.

Trumps slightly unhinged reputation is actually an asset here. People are not sure how far he will go and the old rules do not seem to apply. Reagan was similarly scary at the end of the Cold war to the Soviet Union. He was caught joking about nuking the Russians and scared the bejeebees out of them. They realised they could not compete financially with his star wars programme. But the Chinese are more about long term rational self interest than fear. If their view of NK has changed I doubt if it is fear that is driving that. It is more likely they need the trade to complete the work of internal restructuring they are conducting in China and cannot jeopardise Chinas rate of growth in the face of the current seismic changes that are going on there as people move from country to city. A united Korea, in the long run, would also most likely be a stronger trade partner to China than its current divided state. Also a country is known by its friends to some extent and NKs global rep is in the toilet. It shames the Chinese to be allied to such scum.

 

[Truth7t7]

Trumps slightly unhinged reputation is actually an asset here. People are not sure how far he will go and the old rules do not seem to apply. Reagan was similarly scary at the end of the Cold war to the Soviet Union. He was caught joking about nuking the Russians and scared the bejeebees out of them. They realised they could not compete financially with his star wars programme. But the Chinese are more about long term rational self interest than fear. If their view of NK has changed I doubt if it is fear that is driving that. It is more likely they need the trade to complete the work of internal restructuring they are conducting in China and cannot jeopardise Chinas rate of growth in the face of the current seismic changes that are going on there as people move from country to city. A united Korea, in the long run, would also most likely be a stronger trade partner to China than its current divided state. Also a country is known by its friends to some extent and NKs global rep is in the toilet. It shames the Chinese to be allied to such scum.

China has no halo over their head, they are discrete in their evil doings, unlike North Korea.

Good post, I agree 100%

 

[Mountainmanbob]

Nuclear weapons allow NK to come to the table on near equal terms in terms of military power.

What a total fantasy that probably only 1 out of 5 million people would believe.
Pretty low odds.
The very lowest of odds offered.
More like a miracle.
M-Bob

 

[Gadarene]

Not as yet. The Americans could probably destroy most of their arsenal on the ground or in flight.

They really can’t.

 

[HannahT]

They really can’t.

They could, but they won't. It would cost thousands of lives in the process. I'm speaking of individuals outside NK too. They couldn't hit them before NK let off all kinds of bombs, etc. It could cause more chaos and all kinds of HUGE problems. Why go there? Lives are too precious.

Personally, I think the NK talks are going to a side show. NK will demand this, that, and the other - and won't be held accountable for denuking anything. Kim Jung Un will go back and continue to scare the daylights out of his country with his propaganda, and claim he tried. The end.

It's a rinse and repeat deal that his father and grandfather did before him.

 

[Gadarene]

They could, but they won't.

They really couldn’t, so they won’t.

Let’s get the splendid first strike ideas out of our heads, shall we? They don’t know how many of these things they have, or where they are - they’re on launcher trucks for one thing, when they’re not underground, so would be pretty easily relocated - and all you have to do to really screw up is miss one. This is basic nuclear deterrence stuff that has been long established, and NK passed that milestone some time ago.

Your ballistic missile defence is hardly extensive or reliable enough to make an attack certain to fail either.

 

[HannahT]

They really couldn’t, so they won’t.

Let’s get the splendid first strike ideas out of our heads, shall we? They don’t know how many of these things they have, or where they are - they’re on launcher trucks for one thing, when they’re not underground, so would be pretty easily relocated - and all you have to do to really screw up is miss one. This is basic nuclear deterrence stuff that has been long established, and NK passed that milestone some time ago.

Your ballistic missile defence is hardly extensive or reliable enough to make an attack certain to fail either.

lol If you read what I said? I never hinted at splendid first strike anything. I say they could destroy it, but not before NK got bombs, etc off. The cost is to high, and its not worth it. How it would cost way to much to even go there.

It wouldn't be instant, because these things never are. The country would be destroyed if we had to, but at what cost? It's not worth it. Our lives, NK Lives, and the lives of others in the surrounding countries are to high of a cost. Risk of nukes aren't either - the whole region could be in trouble. It's to ugly to think about.

 

[mindlight]

They really couldn’t, so they won’t.

Let’s get the splendid first strike ideas out of our heads, shall we? They don’t know how many of these things they have, or where they are - they’re on launcher trucks for one thing, when they’re not underground, so would be pretty easily relocated - and all you have to do to really screw up is miss one. This is basic nuclear deterrence stuff that has been long established, and NK passed that milestone some time ago.

Your ballistic missile defence is hardly extensive or reliable enough to make an attack certain to fail either.

First strike is not an option. But NK only has so many ballistic missiles capable of reaching American territory and there is a high probability that most of these could be shot down in flight. The point here is that NK have always considered the nuclear threat as something they could use in negotiations to force payoffs etc. It should be clear to them that they cannot destroy the USA but it could utterly destroy them. So this is a card they can never play.

 

[mindlight]

Bear in mind NK hasn’t exactly fully industrialised - I’m sure some of the costs would be offset by being able to exploit their natural resources with modern SK tech?

Korea would be a G7 country with a $6trillion GNP by 2050 is the prediction I have read. It is young people who are most opposed to this as they think the costs are too high and too damaging to their own lifestyles and also many of them , men especially, want nothing to do with the North.