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Is there a way to distinguish between "miracles" and "random chance"?

ExodusMe

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@DogmaHunter @devolved

Let's clarify some things:

The OP asked how to distinguish a miracle from a random event. We can do this purely on definition.

1) A miracle is an event with God as a causal factor. A random event would be produced by natural causes.
2a) When I state that when we determine an event does not have a natural cause it must have a supernatural cause - I am stating that not out of some type of experience, but out of a necessity of definition.
2b) Your reply is something like "well what if we just don't know the natural explanation yet?". My answer covers this, because I am only describing how we can determine if a miracle has occurred if it is true. Please wrap your head around this before you reply again.
2c) You come back again asking how it couldn't be magic faeries or harry potter. I don't have any good reason to believe they would be such and you haven't provided any reason for miracles to occur from magic faeries. Further, there are good reasons to believe God would be the only causal source of miracles. The most obvious reason is that when you begin to talk about a being that exists outside of our universe who exerts causal power on our natural world everyone is talking about God. Unless you are just using magic faeries as an alternative to God - in which case - you are just talking about God and calling Him magic faeries...
2d) You also come back saying it is an argument from ignorance, but it is not. Like I said in 2c, there are good reasons to believe God would be the causal factor in miracles. You haven't provided any alternatives to God. You have the burden of proof if you wish to show that God is not the causal factor of supernatural events.
2e) if you are stating that it is an argument from ignorance in regards to the claim of miracles - ONCE AGAIN, I am not offering a proof of miracles. I am only showing how we should determine something is a miracle IF TRUE.
3) Another objection you guys make is that "Axioms aren't bad when you are using them our of necessity that doesn't need to be verified. These are generally and pragmatically accepted as self-evident. The question about God is not a self-evident axiom. You are simply making it such for yourself."

Belief in God is self evident! Reformed epistemology provides a model by which God is a properly basic belief. Humans have what is called a "sensus divinitatis" (sense of the divine). It works like this, you look at a mountain vista and it occasions the belief "God made these mountains" - you are in extreme doubt about your future and the sensus divinitatis occasions the belief "God can hear my prayers". This is exactly how our other senses function. Therefore, my belief in God is not an "axiomatic assumption" (I think you guys need to update your vocabulary BTW).
 
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Gene Parmesan

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I still would like an example of a time when we were able to distinguish that an event was determined to be caused by God. Not, "if this story were true it would be a miracle by definition" or other hypothetical statements. OP asks for a method to distinguish miracles from natural events. I would only be interested in a method that has produced results.
 
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ExodusMe

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I would too. Considering modern science has only existed for a short time now I don't doubt why it hasn't occurred. Also, out of the nature of miracles we would technically have to have a microscope on a highly improbably event. Take water into wine example, you would essentially need to have the water prior and wine after and do chemical tests on each. This would need to be done in a controlled environment. It would still be rejected by most people as "I didn't witness it turn into wine, so how do I know they aren't just trying to get youtube views?", which is where I would be. I don't think God is into performing magic tricks in any case....
 
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Gene Parmesan

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Very true. I'll concede that maybe miracles have happened that we haven't caught yet. But if we have thus far been unsuccessful at determining the supernatural is even possible, what makes it reasonable to assert the supernatural actually does intervene?
 
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Hawkins

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A miracle serves a purpose, while a random coincidence does't. One can tell the difference by speculating the purpose behind the scene.

Acts 14:3 (NIV2011)
3 So Paul and Barnabas spent considerable time there, speaking boldly for the Lord, who confirmed the message of his grace by enabling them to perform signs and wonders.

In the above case, Paul and Barnabas knew that those signs and wonders were from God because they, by human speculation, serve the purpose of "confirming God's message".

Moreover, humans confirm the truth of a speculation somehow by its predictability (just as science does). If I can perceive before hand that "something would happen as a miracle", and then later it comes to pass that the "miracle did happen", I thus conclude that "my speculation (that it being a miracle) is true".
 
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ExodusMe

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Hawkins answer is probably pretty close to answering your question.

I think it is reasonable to believe something is a miracle when it has occurred in a significant religious context. For instance, Jesus, claimed to be the divine son of God who predicted his death and resurrection. He was later executed by the Romans and came back to life. In this case, I think it is rational to believe Jesus' resurrection as a miracle, because of the context of Jesus' life/death/resurrection. This isn't some Joe down the block who had a heart attack and later came back. Jesus made specific religious claims, etc... I don't need to prove that there is no natural explanation to Jesus resurrection. At best it just needs to be unlikely explained by natural causes. In this case, I think it is unlikely that Jesus came back to life due to natural causes (based on the account provided in scriptures).
 
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Gene Parmesan

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I understand you. But it does seem like there are no verifiable examples of a miracle occurring where it is reasonable to credit the supernatural/God.
 
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ExodusMe

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I understand you. But it does seem like there are no verifiable examples of a miracle occurring where it is reasonable to credit the supernatural/God.
I'm fine with that. I fully understand that when I die if Jesus was not raised from the dead I would be the first person to admit my foolishness (granted I would be dead..), BUT if I am right.... I have way more than anything you guys can imagine.

All I would have lost is the pleasures of sin.
 
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Gene Parmesan

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All sorts of pleasures are sacrificed, that's true. Not just what you would call "sin" either. But that discussion would be waaay off-topic.

If we have no way of showing that supernatural events occur, it seems irrational to me to think that supernatural events occur. But I think I've said that already and I don't think I have anything more to add to the conversation at this point. I appreciate the discussion.
 
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ExodusMe

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Roger that. Rationality as a criteria is pretty easy to meet. I don't mean to say that to discount people who believe in miracles. I am just saying that it is all too often cited as some type of 'holy grail' of epistemic function. I don't see rationality as such. People are rational in believing a lot of things I don't. This is because rationality is only based on 'properly functioning cognitive processes'. If someone does their due diligence to investigate whether an event has a natural explanation while maintaining 'properly functioning cognitive processes', and determine that there is no natural explanation, then they have met the criteria of rationality.

I appreciate the discussion.
 
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DogmaHunter

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The root of the problem is located in your proposed "methodology" of how to distinguish natural from supernatural events.

It does not require a demonstration that the event IS supernatural. Instead, it requires a demonstration that the event is not natural. You are simply asserting that it is one or the other. Which essentially means that supernatural is anything and everything that isn't natural. So you identify the supernatural by a process of elimination, not by direct identification. I consider this a problem.

To be able to do that in this case, you'ld have to have a complete understanding of everything that is natural. Science would essentially have to be "done".

Obviously, that is not the case. Also, consider the thought exercise: how would you know that science is "done"? How can you know that you know everything there is to know?
I say that you wouldn't - because you don't know about the things that you don't know.

Having said all that...
By doing all this reversing in that "method", it literally requires an appeal to ignorance.
It's textbook argument from ignorance.

So... this method is worthless. It doesn't work.


I have never heared of that term before, but fine... If you wish to call it that.
Your tendency to have faith based beliefs is idd instinctive. I'm aware of that.

It is a well known phenomena in psychology. Tied to a type of cognitive error: the false positive. We have a tendency to look for patterns, jump to conclusions and believe those conclusions as if our life depends on them. Some type of "better safe then sorry" tendency. A survival trick, basically.
 
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DogmaHunter

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It is not surprising to me that you agree with the details of your religion.
I read that and I don't ponder the question "was this resurection a supernatural event?".
I first ask the question "did this resurection thingy actually even happen?"

You, as a christian, are already convinced that it did happen - because it is, after all, part of the doctrine you adhere to.

But I don't believe that, nore do I have any reason to do so.
The question on the nature of an event that can't be shown to even have happened, is not a very meaningfull question, because there is nothing there to investigate.
 
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ExodusMe

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My logic is:
Everything that does not have a natural cause has a supernatural cause

You then state:
this is an argument from ignorance because I do not know all natural causes.

What the?? I can only repeat myself so much before I want to bang my head against the wall.

I don't need to know all natural causes in order to make the statement "if an event does not have a natural cause, then it has a supernatural cause". I'm not even trying to prove to you supernatural causes exist. An atheist could say the same thing I am.

Your last point is just the genetic fallacy. You are attempting to explain the origin of my beliefs as a way to falsify them. Nice trick.
 
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DogmaHunter

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My logic is:
Everything that does not have a natural cause has a supernatural cause

That's just a statement, while you were asked for a method.
You said that one can determine an event to be supernatural when there is no natural explanation.

That is what the argument of ignorance is. That not knowing something (= "no explanation") is the justification for asserting something.

I don't need to know all natural causes in order to make the statement "if an event does not have a natural cause, then it has a supernatural cause".

But you DO need to know all natural causes to be able to actually use the method you shared to determine if an event is supernatural. Since you identify such events by elimination of possible natural explanations.

I'm not even trying to prove to you supernatural causes exist. An atheist could say the same thing I am.
Your last point is just the genetic fallacy. You are attempting to explain the origin of my beliefs as a way to falsify them. Nice trick.

No. I'm responding to your proposed method of how to actually distinguish one from the other.


If all you wish to say is that "supernatural is that which is not natural" - fine.
Seems like a pretty useless tautology though.
 
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jacks

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I'm almost afraid to jump in with this topic, I'm sure to offend someone...

However, could we summarize the arguments in favor of "natural causes/random events" and against miracles as:
  • Since we don't know yet what we may eventually know, we can't say something is a miracle as opposed to an explainable phenomenon, understandable to us sometime in the future. (Note: This could even include the resurrection".) If this is the case, naturally nothing ever will be or could be seen as miraculous.
And those who think that miracles happen as:
  • The unexplainable is the miraculous. (especially if it has a perceived purpose.) In this case their idea of what is a miracle could change over time due to new information they trust.
So distinguishing between the two really depends on ones world view and is not a method.
 
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DogmaHunter

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Something like that.

You see, the entire problem is the way they say such events are be identified.

There isn't an actual method to actually identify supernatural events.
Instead, the method consists of "not being able" to identify the alternative.

That is the entire problem. There is no actual case FOR the supernatural. Instead, there are (attempted) cases AGAINST the natural. Which, when trying to apply the method in the real world, inevitably ends up in an argument from ignorance. Since the case AGAINST the natural essentially comes down to "we don't know about a natural cause". Off course, not knowing about such a cause doesn't in any way mean that there is no such cause.

In fact, practically every phenomena of reality that is explained today through natural causation models, were at some point identified as being "supernatural" - because the natural explanations weren't known yet.

Tides? Poseidon.
Lightning? Jupiter / Zeus.
Thunder? Thor.
Diversity of life? Supernatural creation.
Etc etc.

We see this fallacious reasoning in other areas as well. That creationism for example. Ever saw a debate between a biologist and a creationist?

At no point does the creationist ever lay out a case FOR creationism. Creationism, as a "model" (by lack of a better word), consists entirely out of attempts at poking holes in evolution. The idea is that if you disprove evolution or if no evolutionary explanation is known for a specific thing, it somehow automatically makes creationism correct.

It's the exact same logic here.
To demonstrate/identify the supernatural, one doesn't bring a case FOR the supernatural. Instead, one tries to poke holes in the natural.


The fact of the matter, off course, is that even if you would succesfully disprove any and every current naturalistic model for explaining anything ... the case FOR the supernatural would still remain completely non-existant.


So I can only say that if that is indeed "the method" to distinguish the supernatural from the natural - then it is a lost case by default, because that method simply does not work.
 
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jacks

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Thank you for your thoughtful response Dogma. I admit much of what you say is above my head. I know little of hypothesis testing. Or why you can't say in essence, "A number must be 1 through 7, it is not 1,2,4,5,6,or 7 so it must be 3." So forgive me if I'm wrong in what you mean, but you seem to be saying that miracles are an impossibility. Given that they can't be directly proved and we can't infer them from a process of elimination. i.e. nothing would ever make you believe in them.

It made me realize that even my abbreviated summary in my previous post is too long. It really boils down to:
  • Some people believe in miracles.
  • Some people don't.
All we are left with after that is arguing over whose world views are more valid.
 
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