Is the Corona Virus really all what it's made to be?

[ZNP]

In a month we are very likely to have over 100 million people in the US exposed to this virus. 1% of those will likely die. The majority of those that die will probably die 5-6 weeks from now. It is like watching a tsunami approach.

I know what many are thinking: You probably did the math and said, 5% of those that get sick will need intensive care, there are only 200,000 icu beds in the US, but 5% of 100 million is 5 million. Now I suppose that some of those beds are taken by other people who happen to have health problems at a very inconvenient time, say a stroke or cancer or something. Obviously you wouldn't want to put those with an infectious disease next to someone with a compromised immune system. You can rest assured that those who are responsible for our health care in this country have already realized these numbers and will figure out a humane yet practical and no doubt economic solution to this.

 

[ZNP]

At the moment it is doubling every 3 days. 100 million in a month is unlikely. 3 million maybe. I’m skeptical, but I admit I don’t have good reason to be.

That is because I am not starting with 3,000. That number refers to the number that are confirmed. I know from experience it can be next to impossible if not impossible for most people who are sick to be tested. A doctor at John's Hopkins referenced this when he estimated that the real number is 25 to 50 times higher because of this fact. So try working the math but begin with a number that is closer to how many actually are infected.

 

[blackribbon]

I know a lot of doctors are frustrated too and know it's not their fault, I think this is frustrating for everyone. I hope you feel better soon.

I know a very large hospital that is very full of nurses who are frustrated and angry. They are willing to care for Covid19 patients but the hospital administration is playing them for the fools when it comes to staff safety. If they don't have enough of a certain kind of masks, SAY IT, and explain how you are going to address this problem which would including things like exempting pregnant nurses and nurses with immune issues (like currently receiving cancer treatments) from direct care of Covid19 patients. It would offer up bonuses for those who will volunteer to care for this population and the hospital should give paid time off if a nurse does get ill caring for a diagnosed patient and our protective gear was not what was recommended. First they wouldn't give the nurses who requested the higher level mask...now they are saying you get ONE per shift (you are supposed to throw it away every time you walk out of the room) which means if it is contaminated, you will continue to touch the contamination and risk contaminating the inside of the mask between the times you wear it. They know what they are supposed to do but it would take away from the high numbers that give the bigwigs their multi-million dollar salaries.

 

[hedrick]

I know what many are thinking: You probably did the math and said, 5% of those that get sick will need intensive care, there are only 200,000 icu beds in the US, but 5% of 100 million is 5 million. Now I suppose that some of those beds are taken by other people who happen to have health problems at a very inconvenient time, say a stroke or cancer or something. Obviously you wouldn't want to put those with an infectious disease next to someone with a compromised immune system. You can rest assured that those who are responsible for our health care in this country have already realized these numbers and will figure out a humane yet practical and no doubt economic solution to this.

You have more confidence in our system than I do. But the projections of 100 million sick don’t show them all sick at the same time. It still won’t be good.

 

[hedrick]

That is because I am not starting with 3,000. That number refers to the number that are confirmed. I know from experience it can be next to impossible if not impossible for most people who are sick to be tested. A doctor at John's Hopkins referenced this when he estimated that the real number is 25 to 50 times higher because of this fact. So try working the math but begin with a number that is closer to how many actually are infected.

i accept this. But you seemed to imply it was going to go from 3000 to 100m in a month. If you’re right it will go from 100,000 to 100 M in a month. That’s plausible. Of course all the data in reports of other countries has the same problem. I’ve been looking at models of what happened in China and data on S Korea. The models work well on growth. But it’s hard to see how the Chinese epidemic ended unless you assume something like this. Of course China is complicated by government lies.

As I understand it, mortality rates we’re seeing are based on the lower numbers. If you assume a factor of 20, that gets us to the same mortality rate as a severe flu. Is that possible?

It would be great if this ends in a month. If we’re at 100 m by then, I assume it can’t go on much longer. But we’re trying to flatten the curve. If that works, growth rates will slow. Does that seem right? Or are we too late?

 

[ZNP]

You have more confidence in our system than I do. But the projections of 100 million sick don’t show them all sick at the same time. It still won’t be good.

true, but these people in ICU tend to stay there for a week, and once those beds are gone the numbers will keep increasing by 25% a day.

 

[ZNP]

i accept this. But you seemed to imply it was going to go from 3000 to 100m in a month. If you’re right it will go from 100,000 to 100 M in a month. That’s plausible. Of course all the data in reports of other countries has the same problem. I’ve been looking at models of what happened in China and data on S Korea. The models work well on growth. But it’s hard to see how the Chinese epidemic ended unless you assume something like this. Of course China is complicated by government lies.

As I understand it, mortality rates we’re seeing are based on the lower numbers. If you assume a factor of 20, that gets us to the same mortality rate as a severe flu. Is that possible?

It would be great if this ends in a month. If we’re at 100 m by then, I assume it can’t go on much longer. But we’re trying to flatten the curve. If that works, growth rates will slow. Does that seem right? Or are we too late?

I think it will be like a forest fire, once it has burned through it has to stop. I agree that the Chinese ability to bring this under control the way they have is very suspicious. I think if people hunker down like a few people have said we might be able to flatten the curve, but let's be real, no one (except prepperes) is hunkering down until their is a vaccine so better hope this virus really hates the sun.

 

[ZNP]

The governor of Genoa is now planning to turn ferry boats into temporary medical facilities. This is partly because of the expected repercussions from the crowding on beaches last weekend, and also to free up hospital beds from those who are convalescing. There has even been talk of additional ferries being converted so as to provide a place for people who have contracted the virus to go into quarantine, especially if they have elderly or vulnerable people at home. The first of these structures should be ready in five working days.

Brilliant idea! We could take some of those huge cruise ships which are probably totally deserted, maybe even illegal at this point, and convert them to ICU units. They wouldn't have all the equipment, but it could be a whole lot better than nothing. 65% of the US lives next to the ocean so you could have them in the major ports.

 

[Bobber]

I never said don't test some people...especially those who are very sick (so we can tell whether they have the flu or Covid19 or something else). I said it is ridiculous for everyone to test just because they want to be tested.

If I understand correctly a test for this isn't just a 2 minute or so thing, but rather it takes a few hours of work to discover the result. If everyone wanted tested every time they coughed the work load would probably be too great.

 

[ZNP]

If I understand correctly a test for this isn't just a 2 minute or so thing, but rather it takes a few hours of work to discover the result. If everyone wanted tested every time they coughed the work load would probably be too great.

According to WHO on March 15
South Korea had 8,162 total cases, the US had 1,678

South Korea’s numbers are doubling every 14 days, the US numbers are doubling every 4 days.

But as of March 13 South Korea had performed 320,000 tests, the US had performed 13,000 tests.

If the US had done 30 times as many tests we still would not have done as many per capital as South Korea, yet we could estimate a confirmed infection of 30x greater. Only problem is our infections are doubling every 4 days, theirs every 14. They have a flat curve, we have a spiked one.

Assuming we have 50,000 people infected at this time in the US (low balling here) and the curve doubles every 4 days, well, 1.2 million are infected in 20 days, and 4 days later we have another 1.2 million infected, and 4 days later its another 2.4 million.

That means at the end of 30 days we will get enough new cases of Covid-19 to fill every ICU bed in the US assuming 5% of cases are severe enough to need an ICU.

Also, lets be real here, those beds will all be filled before then, so 4 weeks from now we will hear the horror stories that we are seeing in Italy.

 

[Bobber]

South Korea’s numbers are doubling every 14 days, the US numbers are doubling every 4 days.

I wonder if we should consider this when comparing numbers. South Korea is about the size of a small U. S. State. American in a way can be considered many countries with many leaders, Governors of States etc. Many want to look to a U.S. President and hold him responsible for this or that or the other. United States is really like an Empire. I think it must be a lot easier for some smaller nations to get control of things.

 

[ZNP]

Most of the world's airlines could be bankrupt within 2 months because of the coronavirus, an influential aviation consulting firm is warning

An example of a business that wants this over as quick as possible.

 

[ZNP]

I wonder if we should consider this when comparing numbers. South Korea is about the size of a small U. S. State. American in a way can be considered many countries with many leaders, Governors of States etc. Many want to look to a U.S. President and hold him responsible for this or that or the other. United States is really like an Empire. I think it must be a lot easier for some smaller nations to get control of things.
View attachment 273244

S. Korea has a population of about 50 million which is roughly 1/7th that of the US. So how is it that they have done about 30 times more tests than us?

 

[ZNP]

Coronavirus hits retailers worldwide: Store closures and reduced hours

 

[Kaon]

Is there really that big of a threat like CNN says, or is it taken out of proportion like Donald Trump says?

When have entire basketball seasons, standardized tests and public schools (which make around $50 - $80 per day per student attending), Disney Land, Disney World, etc. stopped for any past epidemic - all at the same time period?

You have to choose to confront the worst of negativity and doom, not run away from it. If you nurse the framework of reality prepared just for you, you will be taken off guard.

 

[essentialsaltes]

weeks? it's only been 3 days, and looks like it won't take more than a few more days.

View attachment 273109

There are now more cases outside China than inside China.
That steep slope does not look good.

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

There are now more cases outside China than inside China.
That steep slope does not look good.

Unless someone/ companies/ like making profits from the panic, control, and so forth....

To them it is bread and butter (income... sometimes huge)... right ?

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

S. Korea has a population of about 50 million which is roughly 1/7th that of the US. So how is it that they have done about 30 times more tests than us?

Political, social, medical, and media "spin".

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

If I understand correctly a test for this isn't just a 2 minute or so thing, but rather it takes a few hours of work to discover the result. If everyone wanted tested every time they coughed the work load would probably be too great.

And, as has happened with various cancer testing, etc, , in the news the last week,
a lot of the tests were noted to be inaccurate.

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

I think it will be like a forest fire, once it has burned through it has to stop. I agree that the Chinese ability to bring this under control the way they have is very suspicious. I think if people hunker down like a few people have said we might be able to flatten the curve, but let's be real, no one (except prepperes) is hunkering down until their is a vaccine so better hope this virus really hates the sun.

Or other immune system strength builder/way/ or virus eliminator (unauthorized).