Is global warming just another ‘End-of-the-World’ delusion?

Greatcloud

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eclipsenow

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I think those 1,100 peer reviewed papers are part of the plot. Scientist loves stuff that can't really be proven so they continue to get research money. A few skeptics helps keep the debate going which keeps the money coming in.

Not at all, not at all. Science operates on evidence and analysis. It's about what you can test and measure and demonstrate, and then from that what you can prove. For instance, a scientist might listen to your political spin on their activities above, and react emotionally and defensively, but that wouldn't be science... just as your paranoid assertion isn't science. But if they were objective, and asked to see evidence that the papers involved actually resulted in extra funding going into climate science, and how much funding, and whether there were any rules that could be drawn up about xyz arguments against climate science resultingin xyz funding for papers, then maybe we'd have a scientific analysis of your rather cynical and emotional assertion.

However, here are some facts. Climatologists are lucky to earn over $100 grand a year.
The CEO of Exxon earns over $100 grand EVERY DAY!

Who has the real motivation to lie and to fund lies? Go figure!
 
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eclipsenow

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No, it says that models of the thermohaline currents and their reaction to greenhouse warming are wrong . . . maybe. It never questions greenhouse warming. It only questions what will happen to ocean currents as a result of greenhouse warming.

Your source is actually using an article that never questions the reality of greenhouse warming as an article that argues against greenhouse warming. That's pretty pathetic.
Excellent, excellent, excellent point! :clap: :clap: :clap:

That's why people like GreatCloud like to just point their angst at a generic list of Denialist arguments and shout out how imposing and incredible and amazing the list is... without getting specific. Because when one gets into the specifics, the peer-reviewed science wins 99.99% of the time. The only time it didn't, that I can recall, is the Glaciergate fiasco. And that's good. It shows the IPCC can admit when it's stuffed up. If the whole thing were completely faultless I'd be worried that it was, indeed, some sort of conspiracy. But science evolves with new information and data. Denialist dogma doesn't.


My bet is that the list of 1,100 papers questions certain minor properties of climate science, such as some of the more specific directions and effects of energy flow, but not the overall fact that more and more energy is being trapped in our atmosphere.
 
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eclipsenow

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Poptech

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Greatcloud,

Can you please point to the anti-AGW conclusion in this abstract?

"Most global climate models simulate a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in response to enhanced greenhouse warming. Both surface warming and freshening in high latitudes, the so-called sinking region, contribute to the weakening of the THC. Some models even simulate a complete breakdown of the THC at sufficiently strong forcing. Here results are presented from a state-of-the-art global climate model that does not simulate a weakening of the THC in response to greenhouse warming. Large-scale air–sea interactions in the Tropics, similar to those operating during present-day El Niños, lead to anomalously high salinities in the tropical Atlantic. These are advected into the sinking region, thereby increasing the surface density and compensating the effects of the local warming and freshening."

"Tropical Stabilization of the Thermohaline Circulation in a Greenhouse Warming Simulation"

Notice this paper is under the category 'Gulf Stream: (Thermohaline Circulation)' in the list?

Thus it supports skeptic arguments against AGW Alarm relating to the Gulf Stream. Such as those made by Al Gore in his science fiction movie claiming that "global warming" may shut down the thermohaline circulation in the oceans, which he calls the "ocean conveyor", plunging Europe into an ice age.
 
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Poptech

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As Skeptical Science already said.....
"Meet the Denominator"

I unfortunately cannot post links to the epic destruction of this computer illiteracy but maybe someone else can off the 'Rebuttals to Criticism' section of my list titled: "Google Scholar Illiteracy at Skeptical Science"

eclipsenow, I guess your reason for posting the SkS link was to demonstrate you are as computer illiterate as Skeptical Science?

In a desperate attempt to diminish the value of the list of peer-reviewed papers supporting skeptic's arguments, former bike messenger and man-purse maker Rob "Scumbags" Honeycutt from Skeptical Science not only lies but puts on a surprising display of his Google Scholar Illiteracy. He fails to use quotes when searching for phrases, is unable to count past 1000 and fails to remove erroneous results such as, "Planet Mutonia and the Young Pop Star Wannabes" - believing it to be a peer-reviewed paper about global warming. It is clear that not only does he not understand how to properly use Google Scholar, he has no idea of the relevance of any of the results he gets.

Update: Rob was forced to concede I was correct (though never owns up to blatantly lying) and has desperately made a flawed updated "analysis". His original inaccurate number of 954,000 results went down to 189,553 results (which he fails to mention in his update) of which 160,130 (84%) CANNOT BE VERIFIED due to the 1000 result limit imposed by Google Scholar. The remaining results are irrefutably filled with erroneous nonsense such as, "Disintegration: The Splintering of Black America" that has to be individually removed before any sort of accurate count can be taken (see the updates for more information). None of which was done leaving his post to be worthless and those who cite it computer illiterate.

If there was some part of my complete and total destruction of one of the most embarrassing posts ever made online, let me know so I can explain it in explicit detail for you.
 
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Poptech

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If you have a specific problem with climate science that you wish do discuss, then that's OK. Until then, the DENOMINATOR RULES! ;) :thumbsup:
Please tell us why you think "Planet Mutonia and the Young Pop Star Wannabes" is a peer-reviewed paper about global warming?

ROFLMAO! ....oh the pain make it stop.
 
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Greatcloud

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Lucy Stulz

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^_^ I will have the last laugh when the temperatures continue to drop globally.

DROP? That makes it sound like you have some solid statistical analysis showing a statistically significant NEGATIVE trend.

Do you?

That's gotta be pretty impressive considering that a 14 year block windowed down from a larger time series data set with a lot of noise would make that pretty hard.

But since you are so focused on good science, perhaps you could show us this statistically significant negative trend.

I'm also looking for the F-test and p-value on that trend. But you already knew that, so no doubt you are going to provide that post haste!
 
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Lucy Stulz

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Here is some eye opening material about the 97% consensus on peer reviewed papers. Please read.

Global Warming Alarmists Caught Doctoring '97-Percent Consensus' Claims - Climate Change Dispatch

^_^ typical if the evidence is not there make it up.

I don't know where the "Cook" article comes from. I usually rely on two independent studies which found 95-97% climate change consensus.

The PNAS study by Anderegg et al (HERE) <--this one doesn't use a "poll", it is an analysis of publications, so you can't claim some poll-based sample bias.

And the Eos article by Doran and Zimmerman (HERE)

So you're going to have to take down those analyses as well.

But I'm sure you are all over that as we speak. I mean you did know those articles pre-date Cook by several years, right?

You did know that many of us were familiar with more research than just one article, right???
 
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Lucy Stulz

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The data here is overwhelming in scope what a magnificent report !

http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/in...Store_id=83947f5d-d84a-4a84-ad5d-6e2d71db52d9

Do any alarmists still say there is no debate ?

A 2008 screed by Inhofe??? You've got to be kidding!

:doh:

The Right Honorable Mr. Inhofe (who is not a climate scientist) just recently had to go hat in hand to the US gov't to bail out his state after the worst tornado in recorded US history tore through his state. Now mind you, Mr. Inhofe found a rationale to deny similar aid to the US Northeast just recently after yet another superstorm tore through there.

But I am sure Mr. Inhofe cannot imagine what a world of worsening unpredictable storms would look like. And I'm sure that if AGW ever did get perfect 100% proof he'd be right at the front of the line begging for money from Uncle Sam to offset any damages agw will cause his constituents.

Please! Let's not bring Inhofe into this discussion!
 
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eclipsenow

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Notice this paper is under the category 'Gulf Stream: (Thermohaline Circulation)' in the list?

Thus it supports skeptic arguments against AGW Alarm relating to the Gulf Stream. Such as those made by Al Gore in his science fiction movie claiming that "global warming" may shut down the thermohaline circulation in the oceans, which he calls the "ocean conveyor", plunging Europe into an ice age.
It shut down for 10 days a few years back. Ever read that?
 
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eclipsenow

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Please tell us why you think "Planet Mutonia and the Young Pop Star Wannabes" is a peer-reviewed paper about global warming?

ROFLMAO! ....oh the pain make it stop.

Oh, it's you. There's just no dealing with the truth with you, is there? What you really need to do is prove that the ratios of affirmative global warming science papers in peer-reviewed journals are not thousands to 1 in the negative. But you'll just play semantic games and make accusations about how SKC googled results. Go ahead. You're only confirming what everyone already knows about you from your own mouth on your own blog.

You quote papers that are largely for AGW as against AGW in your 'list', and then try and spin out a tale from a long list of papers most people don't have the time to sift through. Well, that's your choice, but don't expect it to go down well with the troops. And don't expect it to gain you any credibility either! An article that questions minor energy flows while accepting the overall energy imbalance is NOT evidence against the global warming consensus, get it? It's just analysing some of the details.

In the meantime, climate scientists just shake their heads at the mentality that drives someone like yourself to deny the obvious, and get on with the good work that they are doing. You're out there with the Moon Landing was faked crowd, and I for one have no time for you and your 'disciples'.
 
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Lucy Stulz

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Notice this paper is under the category 'Gulf Stream: (Thermohaline Circulation)' in the list?

Thus it supports skeptic arguments against AGW Alarm relating to the Gulf Stream. Such as those made by Al Gore in his science fiction movie claiming that "global warming" may shut down the thermohaline circulation in the oceans, which he calls the "ocean conveyor", plunging Europe into an ice age.

Couple points:

1. ACTUAL oceanographers call it the "ocean conveyor"
2. ACTUAL oceanographer Wallace Broeker at Columbia wrote an article on the topic of the THC shutdown or "reorganization" (HERE)

The physics is pretty straightforward so one would be hard-pressed to suggest it to be "science fiction". Granted the possibility of a THC shutdown is worthy of discussion, it is not necessarily a fait accompli.

In addition the THC HAS APPARENTLY SHUT DOWN BEFORE.

So, well, you know, guess if you don't understand the importance of the THC to Western Europe one could be forgiven for NOT being alarmed.

But for those of us with a modicum of science training it is kinda scary to think about.
 
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eclipsenow

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Couple points:

1. ACTUAL oceanographers call it the "ocean conveyor"
2. ACTUAL oceanographer Wallace Broeker at Columbia wrote an article on the topic of the THC shutdown or "reorganization" (HERE)

The physics is pretty straightforward so one would be hard-pressed to suggest it to be "science fiction". Granted the possibility of a THC shutdown is worthy of discussion, it is not necessarily a fait accompli.

In addition the THC HAS APPARENTLY SHUT DOWN BEFORE.

So, well, you know, guess if you don't understand the importance of the THC to Western Europe one could be forgiven for NOT being alarmed.

But for those of us with a modicum of science training it is kinda scary to think about.

Agreed. That the THC will shut down is not an article of climate faith like one of the 39 articles of the Anglican Church. It's an interesting side discussion about possible consequences. It may even shut down temporarily and kick start again... I've seen papers concluding shuddering changes like that.
 
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Poptech

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Oh, it's you. There's just no dealing with the truth with you, is there? What you really need to do is prove that the ratios of affirmative global warming science papers in peer-reviewed journals are not thousands to 1 in the negative. But you'll just play semantic games and make accusations about how SKC googled results. Go ahead. You're only confirming what everyone already knows about you from your own mouth on your own blog.
Wrong, I do not have to prove any such thing as I am not making any such claims.

How databases work is not a "semantics game", what sort of computer illiterate claim is this? My very first DB education I gave them is that by not properly using quotes to search for the "phrase", the results dropped by over 300,000. Do you not understand this? This is an embarrassment of EPIC proportions. That means they were including results that have those words in irrelevant context such as,

Managing the Process of Engineering Change Orders: The Case of the Climate Control System in Automobile Development
(Journal of Product Innovation Management, Volume 16, Issue 2, pp. 160–172, March 1999)
- Christian Terwiesch, Christoph H. Loch


That is amateur hour and you are citing and quoting it here multiple times.

Do you not understand that Google Scholar does not index only peer-reviewed papers? Results include conference papers, theses, dissertations, academic books, pre-prints, abstracts, technical reports and other scholarly literature from all broad areas of research. ...Shorter articles, such as book reviews, news sections, editorials, announcements and letters.

Shall I go on? You still think it is a "semantics game" or do you REALLY want me to embarrass you further?

The "denominator" post is like one big joke that computer illiterates like yourself quote in epic failure. Why are you trying to embarrass yourself like this?

You quote papers that are largely for AGW as against AGW in your 'list', and then try and spin out a tale from a long list of papers most people don't have the time to sift through. Well, that's your choice, but don't expect it to go down well with the troops. And don't expect it to gain you any credibility either! An article that questions minor energy flows while accepting the overall energy imbalance is NOT evidence against the global warming consensus, get it? It's just analysing some of the details.
I do not such thing, why are you misrepresenting my list? All of the papers support skeptic arguments against ACC/AGW Alarm. The list has gone over phenomenally well and has gained massive credibility as it is frequently cited and recommended by credentialed scientists,

"Wow, the list is pretty impressive ...It's Oreskes done right."
- Luboš Motl, Ph.D. Theoretical Physics

"I really appreciate your important effort in compiling the list."
- Willie Soon, Ph.D. Astrophysicist and Geoscientist

"A tour de force list of scientific papers..."
- Robert M. Carter, Ph.D. Palaeontology

I don't get anything about your strawman arguments.

n the meantime, climate scientists just shake their heads at the mentality that drives someone like yourself to deny the obvious, and get on with the good work that they are doing. You're out there with the Moon Landing was faked crowd, and I for one have no time for you and your 'disciples'.
Highly credentialed climate scientists support my position.

No need for the ad hominem as I have a post debunking Moon Landing conspiracies in my forums.
 
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Poptech

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Couple points:

1. ACTUAL oceanographers call it the "ocean conveyor"
No, the scientific term is "Thermohaline Circulation", of which the 'Gulf Stream' is a part of.

2. ACTUAL oceanographer Wallace Broeker at Columbia wrote an article on the topic of the THC shutdown or "reorganization"
Yes, and Carl Wunsch of MIT argues emphatically against such a possibility and explicitly against Broecker. His paper is on my list, thus Wunsch's paper and the others in that section support skeptic arguments against alarmist conclusions relating to the Gulf Stream (Thermohaline Circulation) "shutting down".
 
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Poptech

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I don't know where the "Cook" article comes from. I usually rely on two independent studies which found 95-97% climate change consensus.

The PNAS study by Anderegg et al <--this one doesn't use a "poll", it is an analysis of publications, so you can't claim some poll-based sample bias.

And the Eos article by Doran and Zimmerman

So you're going to have to take down those analyses as well.
Child's play,

Anderegg et al. incompetently used Google Scholar which I demolished in "Google Scholar illiteracy in the PNAS".

Doran's "97%" is only 75 out of 77 subjectively cherry picked "specialists" or 2.4% of the 3146 who participated in the survey out of 10,257 Earth Scientists who were sent an invitation.
 
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eclipsenow

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Wrong, I do not have to prove any such thing as I am not making any such claims.

How databases work is not a "semantics game", what sort of computer illiterate claim is this? My very first DB education I gave them is that by not properly using quotes to search for the "phrase", the results dropped by over 300,000. Do you not understand this? This is an embarrassment of EPIC proportions. That means they were including results that have those words in irrelevant context such as,

Prove they did not search correctly? The Denominator page I quoted says they used quotes? Here, I'll make it bold for you.
Here I just went to Google Scholar. I limited the search to the term "climate change" and only searched articles in the subject areas of 1) Biology, Life Science and Environmental Science, and 2) Physics, Astronomy and Planetary Science. That returned 954,000 articles.




The "denominator" post is like one big joke that computer illiterates like yourself quote in epic failure. Why are you trying to embarrass yourself like this?
Eerrr, see above?


I do not such thing, why are you misrepresenting my list? All of the papers support skeptic arguments against ACC/AGW Alarm.
Looking at your list I'm impressed by how old the papers are. Many of these 'debates' were settled over a decade and a half ago. You're seriously asking me to dig through that pile of tired old denialist myths? Like this 2000 paper by Pielke that merely argues because the population has grown, there are more people and properties to be damaged by weather events SO THEREFORE (Denialist logic jump follows) we should invest more in adaptation rather than prevention? Umm, this was published before Sandy, before 2010 and 2005 (hottest years on record beating even the super El Nino of 1998), before the Australian drought had played out... and then the super-La Nina floods had destroyed so many lives (because the atmosphere is 5% wetter today than 40 years ago, so both droughts and floods can be so much worse), before record breaking heatwaves in the USA and those Russian fires.

An Error Occurred Setting Your User Cookie

But hey, you keep that tired old Meteorological (not Climate journal!) article on your website. It makes your numbers that much higher! :doh: ;) :thumbsup:


The list has gone over phenomenally well and has gained massive credibility as it is frequently cited and recommended by credentialed scientists,
Oh please, stop it, it hurts. So you've got a big online bromance going with other denialists who are frequently tired, bitter old men who can't get their denialist arguments recognised by real practising climatologists! Surprise me! ;) This list is a 'Who's who' of people who have published marginal pieces that, just like Creation Scientists, then go on to inflate the 'achievements' of these pieces beyond all proportion or demonstration of perceived 'successes' against climate science. Really... you need to share the top 2 papers that convince you the MAJORITY of scientific organisations are wrong!

Oh yeah... as we mentioned the American Meteorological Society from your out of date 2000 paper above, I thought I'd better copy and paste their opinion on climate change.


American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2012 concluded:
There is unequivocal evidence that Earth’s lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking. The dominant cause of the warming since the 1950s is human activities. This scientific finding is based on a large and persuasive body of research. The observed warming will be irreversible for many years into the future, and even larger temperature increases will occur as greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in the atmosphere. Avoiding this future warming will require a large and rapid reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions. The ongoing warming will increase risks and stresses to human societies, economies, ecosystems, and wildlife through the 21st century and beyond, making it imperative that society respond to a changing climate. To inform decisions on adaptation and mitigation, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the global climate system and our ability to project future climate through continued and improved monitoring and research. This is especially true for smaller (seasonal and regional) scales and weather and climate extremes, and for important hydroclimatic variables such as precipitation and water availability. Technological, economic, and policy choices in the near future will determine the extent of future impacts of climate change. Science-based decisions are seldom made in a context of absolute certainty. National and international policy discussions should include consideration of the best ways to both adapt to and mitigate climate change. Mitigation will reduce the amount of future climate change and the risk of impacts that are potentially large and dangerous. At the same time, some continued climate change is inevitable, and policy responses should include adaptation to climate change. Prudence dictates extreme care in accounting for our relationship with the only planet known to be capable of sustaining human life.[64]
Scientific opinion on climate change - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



So, to be honest, could you please just subtract all the papers from the AMS from your list, as those papers were obviously niggling over smaller details without at all challenging the larger picture. Thanking you in advance....
 
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