#ILEFTTHEGOP TRENDS AS FORMER REPUBLICANS SHARE WHY THEY 'CUT THE CORD' WITH THE PARTY

The Barbarian

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Well y0u can giggle the numbers however you wish, but the production numbers were going down and Trump turned them around.

As you see, they were much, much higher in Obama's administration. We'll see how well Trump's numbers are, at the end of his administration. He's got a lot of catching up to do.

Of course after the crash there would be a big rebound, but it didn't last until Trump.

Well, that's a testable belief:
united-states-gdp.png

Looks like Trump so far, hasn't really changed the rate of growth at all.

As for the swing states, I guess the numbers show Trump is still the #1 candidate!

That's a testable belief, too. Let's take a look...

Biden is up a little under 4 points over Trump in Wisconsin
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is up about 6.5 points over Trump in Michigan:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Michigan: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is up about 7 points over Trump in Ohio:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Ohio: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is up about 7 points over Trump in Pennsylvania:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is about 3.4 points over Trump in North Carolina:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is up about about 2.7 points over Trump in Florida.

Doesn't look so good, does it?

And given that most of the industrialized world is either in recession or teetering on recession, 21% is good.

It's closer to 2%. And no, it's not good. And it's actually negative in most of the swing states. Would you like me to show you that?

Ironically, Trump has fallen into the same trap Hillary Clinton walked into. She had a substantial lead in voters supporting her, but it didn't play out that way in the electoral college. Now, Trump has gotten very high numbers in the red states, but the swing states have, as you now realize, turned against him.

Because of the large number of electoral votes in blue states, he has to come very close to running the table on swing states to win.

And he's much farther behind Biden than he was behind Clinton four years ago.
 
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The Barbarian

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I’d love to see a conservative third party take this indicator and kick both parties to the curb.

That's a real possibility, but the window is closing. Trump's behavior has convinced many younger voters that his way is the conservative way:

8/7/2019
President Trump’s job approval rating has dropped six points among voters between the ages of 18 and 34 in the latest Hill-HarrisX poll.

The poll found 37 percent of voters in that demographic approved of Trump, compared to 43 percent when the same poll was conducted two weeks ago.

Trump approval rating drops among younger voters

Worse, many of them aren't considering liberalism as the alternative:

Here’s why my fellow millennials are seduced by socialism
https://nypost.com/2019/08/16/heres-why-my-fellow-millennials-are-seduced-by-socialism/


Not surprisingly, Trump's legacy might turn out to be the socialist America he advocated before he became a republican.

 
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Fantine

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nolidad

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The troops who left Syria remained in the area. Shortly afterwards, Trump pledged troops to Saudi Arabia and even bragged how Saudi Arabia would be PAYING for them. He is turning our armed forces into mercenaries!!

Trump says Saudi Arabia 'deposited $1billion in the bank' to have U.S. soldiers in kingdom | Daily Mail Online

Well no they are not mercenaries. Teh foreign countries are not paying them directlyi- we are. And I am in favor of having a natin pay the bulk of the load if we are defending them.

Also there are less troops deployed now than when Trump took office.
 
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nolidad

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Well, that's a testable belief:

Well it appears this graph disagrees with your first graph which shows a decline in the end of the Obama administration. So you have posted information that disagrees.

As you see, they were much, much higher in Obama's administration. We'll see how well Trump's numbers are, at the end of his administration. He's got a lot of catching up to do.

And if you look at yor first graph- the numbers were heading down in the end of Obama and have been trending up during Trump. I know you can't find room in your soul to praise Trump.

That's a testable belief, too. Let's take a look...

Biden is up a little under 4 points over Trump in Wisconsin
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is up about 6.5 points over Trump in Michigan:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Michigan: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is up about 7 points over Trump in Ohio:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Ohio: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is up about 7 points over Trump in Pennsylvania:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is about 3.4 points over Trump in North Carolina:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden

Biden is up about about 2.7 points over Trump in Florida.

Doesn't look so good, does it?

Well as these are tiny polls of less than 1/2 of 1% of the population I don't trust them, especially since 2016! But the numbers I was talking about (if you kept my quote in context) is the number of people attending rallies. Please don't try to twist my words to me-- as you are wont to do- tis very poor form.


It's closer to 2%. And no, it's not good. And it's actually negative in most of the swing states. Would you like me to show you that?

Ironically, Trump has fallen into the same trap Hillary Clinton walked into. She had a substantial lead in voters supporting her, but it didn't play out that way in the electoral college. Now, Trump has gotten very high numbers in the red states, but the swing states have, as you now realize, turned against him.

Because of the large number of electoral votes in blue states, he has to come very close to running the table on swing states to win.

And he's much farther behind Biden than he was behind Clinton four years ago.

Well Biden has to survive the primaries which is doubtful. And I do not worry about Trump and his ability.

REcord employment amongst blacks, hispanic, asians.
Lowest unemployment in over 50 years.
Manufacturing up since he took office.
7,000,000+ jobs vacant in America, with over half being good paying middle class and upper middle class jobs.
Trade deals that are fair to America.
The crush of illegal immigrants way down.
The wall is being built.
Middle class benefited the most from his tax cut.

Massive cut in regulations that hamper commerce and business.

I am not the least worried about Trump running on his record.

Polls are always skewed to the left. Until near the very end.

Again I will take the poll of Trump drawing tens of thousands to his rallies while Biden draws dozens to his.
 
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The Barbarian

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Well it appears this graph disagrees with your first graph which shows a decline in the end of the Obama administration.

You've confused graphs. The first graph I showed you, shows that steel production has been lower on Trump's watch than it was on Obama's. The graph I'm showing you now, tests your beliefs that Trump made a difference in the recovery from the Great Recession. As you now realize, he didn't affect it at all. The curve continues at the same rate it did under Obama.

So you have posted information that disagrees.

No,you just got confused again.

Nolidad learns that Trump's support continues to decline in swing states.

Well as these are tiny polls of less than 1/2 of 1% of the population I don't trust them

Doesn't matter. Mathematically, Trump's decline is much greater than the margin of error in these polls.

especially since 2016!

The last polls in 2016 predicted Clinton would win the popular vote by about 3%. She won it by about 2%. As you see, the current polls could be off by 4 times that amount, and Trump would still lose. And it's not getting better for him, mostly because GDP for those states has actually declined on his watch.

But the numbers I was talking about (if you kept my quote in context) is the number of people attending rallies.

Yeah, by that measure, Ross Perot would have been president. So there is that. I'm not saying you're twisting my words, I'm just pointing out that rallies haven't been a very accurate way to measure support for candidates.

Well Biden has to survive the primaries which is doubtful.

He's got a big lead so far, but we'll see.

And I do not worry about Trump and his ability.

Trump worries about Biden and his ability. He was so worried, he took a dumb risk and got himself impeached thereby.

And the real issue for wage earners is that wage growth is falling, as Forbes explains:

Real Wages Are Flat
The U.S. economy is at “full employment,” says the official 3.9% unemployment rate.


The problem is that fully employed people haven’t seen enough wage growth. It’s a puzzle. Wages used to rise faster when unemployment was this low.


That’s why there was much celebration when the August jobs report showed a 2.8% annual increase in average hourly earnings for “Production and Nonsupervisory Employees,” i.e., regular workers.


The media reported it was the fastest wage growth since 2009.


That was correct in a narrow, technical sense. But not in real life.
Real Wage Growth Is Actually Falling



The crush of illegal immigrants way down.

Actually, Obama deported more illegal aliens than Trump has done. Would you like to learn about that?

The wall is being built.

Nope. And Trump has given up on that. He's repairing a few fences. But that "big beautiful wall" is dead. Even when he had control of Congress, they wouldn't do it for him.

I am not the least worried about Trump running on his record.

Republicans are. They're looking at Trump's falling numbers in swing states with considerable alarm.

Polls are always skewed to the left.

In the last elections, the early polls were skewed to the right, as republicans were predicting that they would keep control of Congress.

Until near the very end.

Yep. Then the Blue Wave blindsided them. But the polls were tracking the changes accurately, as time went on. Just as they are now.

Again I will take the poll of Trump drawing tens of thousands to his rallies while Biden draws dozens to his.

How did that work out in the mid-term elections? Not so good. Maybe the polling people know some things you don't. Obviously, they called the last few elections better than you did.

As I said, Trump is falling into the same trap as Clinton. He's noting that his overall popularity is not falling very fast. But it's not votes but electoral votes that matter. And he's losing ground in the states he must take in order to win.

He could still pull it out, but he better start soon.
 
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nolidad

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No,you just got confused again.

Nolidad learns that Trump's support continues to decline in swing states.

Only in skewed polls and not according to the people attending rallies in swing states.

You've confused graphs. The first graph I showed you, shows that steel production has been lower on Trump's watch than it was on Obama's. The graph I'm showing you now, tests your beliefs that Trump made a difference in the recovery from the Great Recession. As you now realize, he didn't affect it at all. The curve continues at the same rate it did under Obama.

Well the first graph showed steel production declining at the end of Obama administration and rising again underTrump! That is what teh graph shows- down with Obama from his peak and rising under Trump and reversing the trend duirng the last 3 years of Obama!

How did that work out in the mid-term elections? Not so good. Maybe the polling people know some things you don't. Obviously, they called the last few elections better than you did.

As I said, Trump is falling into the same trap as Clinton. He's noting that his overall popularity is not falling very fast. But it's not votes but electoral votes that matter. And he's losing ground in the states he must take in order to win.

He could still pull it out, but he better start soon.

Well the world is glad we have you as a clarion call for Trump. But as with his first run- he didn't trust any pundits and jsut went and talked to teh people! Like he is doing now. But now her has a stellar record to run with and a litany of lies the dems spew to show who they are.

How did that work out in the mid-term elections? Not so good. Maybe the polling people know some things you don't. Obviously, they called the last few elections better than you did.

You give them too much credit. Anyone who can read knows that in almost all elections, th epresidents party loses seats in midterms- that doesn't take multi-million dollar polls, just a quick look a thistory.

Yep. Then the Blue Wave blindsided them. But the polls were tracking the changes accurately, as time went on. Just as they are now.

You mean like they did in 2016? Funny Hillary doesn't live at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Republicans are. They're looking at Trump's falling numbers in swing states with considerable alarm.

That is because they are typical politicians who think polls of 1,000 people out of millions are accurate these days.

Nope. And Trump has given up on that. He's repairing a few fences. But that "big beautiful wall" is dead. Even when he had control of Congress, they wouldn't do it for him.

Lying doesn't become you. He has built 100 new miles after he had to defeat teh Democrats in court.

He replaced not repaired 400 miles of old fence with the 30 foot high new bollard fencing.

And he already had under contract 500 new miles for 2020! Do read the news, it keeps you up to date.

Actually, Obama deported more illegal aliens than Trump has done. Would you like to learn about that?

Yes he did. Would you like to learn why?

Trump worries about Biden and his ability. He was so worried, he took a dumb risk and got himself impeached thereby.

And your ignorance of Trump is underwhelming! Trump fears no one. His life proves that!
 
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nolidad

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The last polls in 2016 predicted Clinton would win the popular vote by about 3%. She won it by about 2%. As you see, the current polls could be off by 4 times that amount, and Trump would still lose. And it's not getting better for him, mostly because GDP for those states has actually declined on his watch.

That was at teh end. But at this point in teh election, all polls had Hillary trouncing Trump. Most by double digits.
 
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The Barbarian

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No,you just got confused again.

Nolidad learns that Trump's support continues to decline in swing states.

Only in skewed polls and not according to the people attending rallies in swing states.

Nope. Real Clear Politics average of all polls. Apparently, the people who go to his show, don't vote.
Would you like me to show you?

But as with his first run- he didn't trust any pundits and jsut went and talked to teh people!

He did this time. His own pollsters found that he was in trouble. So he took swift action. He fired them, and went to a rally. Which even some of his own party found amusing.
 
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nolidad

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Real Wages Are Flat
The U.S. economy is at “full employment,” says the official 3.9% unemployment rate.

Well all depends which economist you want to use. But bottom line, including the bonuses given to millions of workers from the tax cuts and measuring wages against inflation- wages are rising- howbeit slowly! It is a trend reversed under Trump!
 
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The Barbarian

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(Barbarian notes that the polls were very accurate in 2016)

That was at teh end.

And during the campaign as well. As the voter opinons changed, so did the polls. That's what they do.

But at this point in teh election, all polls had Hillary trouncing Trump.

Yep. The big deal is that Trump is down a lot worse in blue and swing states than he was last time. He could still pull it out, but he needs to do something soon.

What's got him really panicked is this:

Trump's lead over Biden in Texas is 1.4 points.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Texas: Trump vs. Biden

If that gets worse (and it has) he's lost any hope of winning again. And there are prosecutors in several states just waiting for him to leave office.
 
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The Barbarian

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Well all depends which economist you want to use. But bottom line, including the bonuses given to millions of workers from the tax cuts and measuring wages against inflation- wages are rising- howbeit slowly! It is a trend reversed under Trump!

Well, let's take a look...

Looks like they lied to you, again:
Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over

The increase went up rapidly in Obama's term, as the recovery package took hold. It continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate from 2016 to 2018, when it regained rate it had in Obama's term.

You need to go look up these things for yourself. You'll be a lot harder to fool.
 
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nolidad

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Nope. Real Clear Politics average of all polls. Apparently, the people who go to his show, don't vote.
Would you like me to show you?

So you have interviewed all of the hundreds of thousands?

His polls now are at all time highs!

Well, let's take a look...

Looks like they lied to you, again:
Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over

The increase went up rapidly in Obama's term, as the recovery package took hold. It continue to rise, albeit at a slower rate from 2016 to 2018, when it regained rate it had in Obama's term.

You need to go look up these things for yourself. You'll be a lot harder to fool.

No ;looks like you bought bad info!

Median wages look at all earners, all income and then divide. The rich got richer which skew the median wage. Trumps wage increases affected middle class workers the most. EVEN wapo which is no Trump fan had to admit that.

And during the campaign as well. As the voter opinons changed, so did the polls. That's what they do.

Voter opinions do not change as much as the swing in voter preference. Even the pollsters admitted they got it very very wrong. Would you like to see?

Nope. Real Clear Politics average of all polls. Apparently, the people who go to his show, don't vote.
Would you like me to show you?

And once again trusting in a poll of up to 1500 out of 150,000,000 potential voters is a fools errand. Years ago they were far more trsutworthy, but demographics have changed and so hasn't the reliability of the polls.

Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America

Even if Trump lost all states where he has suffered minus- he would still win! But I do not worry about these polls, they misled before and they will mislead again.

And:
https://www.bea.gov/system/files/qgdpstate_large.png

no state is suffering a negative GDP now! Look and learn.

Yep. The big deal is that Trump is down a lot worse in blue and swing states than he was last time. He could still pull it out, but he needs to do something soon.

What's got him really panicked is this:

Trump's lead over Biden in Texas is 1.4 points.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Texas: Trump vs. Biden

If that gets worse (and it has) he's lost any hope of winning again. And there are prosecutors in several states just waiting for him to leave office.

Well Trump does not fret at all! Remember the media has pumped nothing but negative about Trump for 3 months! But since the SOTU Trumps ratings have jumped to all time highs for him!

Polls are snapshots of a particular time. For being a crabby old guy you should know that by now!

And with Biden sinking in the polls in his own party- He will will soon be a memory!

Once the impeachment farce is far enough behind- Trump will rise again in Texas!

If that gets worse (and it has) he's lost any hope of winning again. And there are prosecutors in several states just waiting for him to leave office.

Yes the orchestrated campaign against Trump is well well known by the Democrats. Trump has been the most scrutinized president in our history and so far all charges have been proven false or dismissed! Even SCOTUS today just ruled that they cannot go after just his taxes!
 
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The Barbarian

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So you have interviewed all of the hundreds of thousands?

That's not how polling works. Thought you knew.

His polls now are at all time highs!

He better hope not; on 1/15/2020:

Donald Trump Falls Behind Democratic Frontrunners In Key Swing States Of Florida and Michigan: Polls
Donald Trump falls behind Democratic frontrunners in key swing states of Florida and Michigan: Polls

Most recent polls, biden pulls ahead of Trump in Wisconsin:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden

He's behind by larger margins in Pennsylvania and Ohio. And North Carolina. He needs those states to stay out of jail.

The good news for Trump is that in deep red states, he's more popular than ever. The bad news, is that in the swing states he must win to stay president, he's falling.

His touting national polls is pretty much the same error Clinton made. She won the national vote. But electoral votes are what counts. And Trump is worse off than he was when the 2016 campaign began.
 
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The Barbarian

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There was a similar thing with the Democratic Party a year or so ago.

Yes. The polls were quite similar, showing republicans significantly behind. How did that turn out?
 
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Knee V

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Yes. The polls were quite similar, showing republicans significantly behind. How did that turn out?
What I was saying is that this exodus from the Republican Party had a similar corresponding exodus from the Democratic Party a couple years ago. Both have an associated hashtag and all that. I'm just saying that this exodus from the Republican Party probably doesn't mean much.
 
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The Barbarian

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What I was saying is that this exodus from the Republican Party had a similar corresponding exodus from the Democratic Party a couple years ago.

Seems unlikely, since the democrat vote was greater in 2016 than in 2018. If they lost members, they obviously picked up more. Or possibly, the republican exodus from the GOP had already begun.

Both have an associated hashtag and all that. I'm just saying that this exodus from the Republican Party probably doesn't mean much.

Likely, it cost them the 2016 elections. And unless something changes soon, it's likely that it will cost them the 2020 elections as well.

This was the issue just before the 2016 elections:

Pollster Lee Miringoff said on Wednesday that Republicans are in danger ahead of November's midterm elections due to a shrinking base.

"In addition to [President] Trump's approval rating, it's the damaged brand right now, and that's what the Republicans have to worry about," Miringoff, who is the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, told Hill.TV's Joe Concha on "What America's Thinking."

"The base is shrinking because there are fewer Republicans. So the base is more solid than it was, but there's fewer of them," he said.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics detailed party registration last week and found that there were nearly 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans across 31 states and the District of Columbia.

The analysis also found that 40 percent of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, while only 29 percent are Republicans.

Gallup polling also shows more self-identifying Democrats than self-identifying Republicans in 2018, compared to earlier years when Republicans outnumbered Democrats.

Republicans are preparing to defend the House, Senate and various state legislatures from what could be large Democratic turnout in November.

Pollster: GOP base is shrinking

The same thing is happening now. Look for the republicans to try to sow dissent in the democrat party as a defensive measure.
 
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nolidad

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That's not how polling works. Thought you knew.

Oh I do know how it "works".

I also know you cannot get an accurate full picture when sampling less than .0000018% of the voting population. Recent history has proved that and even the pollsters admitted that in their back handed way.

He better hope not; on 1/15/2020:

Donald Trump Falls Behind Democratic Frontrunners In Key Swing States Of Florida and Michigan: Polls
Donald Trump falls behind Democratic frontrunners in key swing states of Florida and Michigan: Polls

Most recent polls, biden pulls ahead of Trump in Wisconsin:
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden

He's behind by larger margins in Pennsylvania and Ohio. And North Carolina. He needs those states to stay out of jail.

It was the same with Hil-lie-ary as well! She was polling even higher in most states.

Once we get past teh impeachment sham and the media is forced to focus on Trump in the generals, people will hear how good the country is going and vote Trump again. It is still Trumps to lose if the economy fails ohter than through something like th corona virus.
 
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