IHME now estimating 600,000 US COVID-19 deaths by May 1 (was 350K by Jan)

[2BeholdHisGlory]

That 350K was the number estimated by this model sometime in the middle of 2020, but yes, the estimate was for calendar 2020. The actual number was something like 377,883 according to the CDC.

Do you know of a month by month model, how many per month in the initial counting of deaths of covid?

Also have they given an estimate of the number of deaths that were recorded as dying WITH covid versus FROM it seeing that they were recording those WITH it (since there are many assymptomatic people who tested positive) who were said to be listed in with those who died FROM covid (which really did not). I posted a link on the last thread I was on which shows they did admit they did this.

 

[2BeholdHisGlory]

That 350K was the number estimated by this model sometime in the middle of 2020, but yes, the estimate was for calendar 2020. The actual number was something like 377,883 according to the CDC.

Thank you essentialsaltes, would you happen to have any information on false positives? I was hearing of these also, were there some faulty test kits at some time or another also?

 

[essentialsaltes]

Do you know of a month by month model, how many per month in the initial counting of deaths of covid?

Also have they given an estimate of the number of deaths that were recorded as dying WITH covid versus FROM it seeing that they were recording those WITH it (since there are many assymptomatic people who tested positive) who were said to be listed in with those who died FROM covid (which really did not). I posted a link on the last thread I was on which shows they did admit they did this.
...
Thank you essentialsaltes, would you happen to have any information on false positives? I was hearing of these also, were there some faulty test kits at some time or another also?

I don't sense that your inquiry is sincere. So you will have to do your own research and present your findings for our edification. According to the CDC, 3,358,814 Americans died in 2020, compared to 2,854,838 in 2019. A rise of 503,976, or 15.6%. While some of that rise is due to the population being larger, the 15.6% rise is primarily due to COVID-19. Of that half a million additional deaths, COVID-19 was "the underlying cause of death or a contributing cause of death" of 377,883 of them.

In 2020, approximately 3,358,814 deaths† occurred in the United States. From 2019 to 2020, the estimated age-adjusted death rate increased by 15.9%, from 715.2 to 828.7 deaths per 100,000 population. COVID-19 was reported as the underlying cause of death or a contributing cause of death for an estimated 377,883 (11.3%) of those deaths (91.5 deaths per 100,000).

 

[2BeholdHisGlory]

I don't sense that your inquiry is sincere.

I just wanted to thoroughly look at all the numbers available to be more informed, and I was asking you (here) on a thread specifically covering these things so as to not get in trouble for off topic discussions on this matter. Not only that but because you seemed genuinely interested in the topic (creating one) and seem to be currently still looking into these things and particularly because you could have perhaps stumbled upon something in your own research that could help me in my own.

I take it your research here on this thread is here to help others in their search.

But thats okay, I understand can be difficult to sense genuine sincerity on this forum, but it was really only a question of statistics in another direction that could help us see things in a more informed way. I do the same with scripture I run something every which way until it holds the most water to me, I do that with everything though.

Not hard feelings

 

[essentialsaltes]

IHME has made a drastic change in their reporting. Previously, it tracked/estimated confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Now, they report total deaths.

There are several reasons that have led us to adopt this new approach.

Worldwide, they estimate 7 million people have died of COVID-19.

In the US, the estimate of US total deaths is currently just over 900,000.

From the US briefing:

This week we have switched to using estimates of the total COVID-19 death rate rather than reported COVID-19 deaths in our analysis. This is based on an analysis of excess mortality comparing observed deaths to deaths expected based on seasonal patterns and trends in the last five years. This switch to capturing the total COVID-19 death rate increases the total number of deaths in the US that have occurred by 58%. Our reference scenario projects declines in the daily death rate through to September 1, leading to a cumulative death count of 949,000 total COVID-19 deaths. While steady progress in controlling the epidemic is largely driven by rising vaccination and declining seasonality, there are risks in the near term. The explosive epidemic in India, likely linked to the B.1.617 variant, implies that transmission even in the Northern Hemisphere can rapidly and explosively increase under the right circumstances.

• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in seven states: Hawaii, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Indiana (Figure 6).
  
  • In the US, 70.6% of people say they would accept or would probably accept a vaccine for COVID-19. This is down by 0.5 percentage points from last week. The fraction of the population who are open to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 57% in Wyoming to 83% in Vermont (Figure 18).
    

 

[essentialsaltes]

May 13 US Briefing:

The epidemic continues to decline steadily... These declines are likely due to the combination of vaccination rates and declining seasonality. B.1.1.7 remains the dominant variant throughout the US, and there is no evidence of sustained increases in the prevalence of the escape variants (B.1.351, B.1.617, and P.1). Vaccination rates, as expected, have been declining as the US approaches the limit of the adults who are willing to get vaccinated. Given the threat of escape variants, especially later in the year when seasonality increases again, every effort should be made to increase vaccination rates. Mask use is declining, and we expect with revised CDC guidance on mask use in the vaccinated that mask use may drop more rapidly than expected in our models. Our reference and worse scenarios do suggest that infections and thus detected cases will increase again by July or August, although deaths will not.

 

[essentialsaltes]

The IHME model is showing that at the expected 70% vaccination rate, it will not quite be enough to make COVID go away, and the model sees an increase in August heading into the winter season.

May 21 briefing

Declining seasonality and rising vaccination rates in our reference scenario will bring daily deaths to a very low number by the end of July. This scenario already includes the expected abrupt drops in mask use in the vaccinated due to new CDC guidance on mask use. Vaccination rates are hitting the limits of demand, and we expect that by September, only 189 million will have received at least one dose. Daily infections are expected to start to rise again, albeit slowly, in late August. This increase would be faster if new escape variants spread, particularly P.1 and B.1.617. The rise in daily infections expected at the end of August, despite nearly 70% of adults being vaccinated, is due to the 30% of adults who will not be vaccinated and a much larger proportion of children not vaccinated, combined with the fact that 25-30% of the vaccinated would be able to be infected by one of the escape variants. This provides a large enough pool of individuals to sustain transmission, particularly under the circumstances where there is minimal to no mask use, pre-COVID mobility levels, and the spread of escape variants. The small rise seen in the reference scenario at the end of August would likely continue throughout the fall heading into the winter transmission season. The main strategies to pursue at the federal and state levels are three-fold: make every effort to vaccinate those who are currently unsure if they want to be vaccinated; encourage a return to mask use if and when transmission returns in a community, and minimize the risk of spread of new variants, particularly P.1 and B.1.617.

Based on the CDC and GISAID sequencing databases and our variant spread model, we estimate the current prevalence of key variants of concern (Figure 8). B.1.1.7 is the dominant variant throughout the US. There is evidence of transmission of P.1 in many states and some indication of increasing transmission in Florida.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Jun 16 US Briefing:

Despite increasing vaccination and declining seasonality, five states have increasing transmission, based on hospitalization data. ... It is likely this increased transmission can be traced to B.1.617.2 or P.1 spread, although it could be just increased interaction in these states. Given over one third of the population has been previously infected with COVID-19, vaccination with two doses is nearing 55% of adults, and seasonality is declining, the increases in transmission in these states is surprising.

Given that vaccination will likely run up against the limit of demand by early July, we expect there will be enough individuals who are susceptible to B.1.617.2 or P.1 infection to drive a late fall/winter surge which will slowly begin by late September. The most important strategy for the US in the next weeks will be to target the individuals who are unconvinced to get vaccinated.

• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in Utah, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi (Figure 6).
  

 

[Crwth]

The IHME COVID-19 estimates aren't necessarily the best, but they were one of the first and still most accessible models.

Estimates are, by definition - wrong.

 

[Tinker Grey]

Estimates are, by definition - wrong.

If I say something is about 5 miles and it turns out to be 4.9 miles, I was right: It was about 5 miles.

What estimates are, by definition, is an approximation.

 

[Crwth]

If I say something is about 5 miles and it turns out to be 4.9 miles, I was right: It was about 5 miles.

What estimates are, by definition, is an approximation.

Potato, potato

 

[essentialsaltes]

June 23 US policy briefing:

For the US overall, daily cases and reported daily deaths continue to decline. Despite these trends reducing transmission, 8 states now have evidence of increasing transmission as assessed by examining cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. While the number of isolates sequenced is still low, it appears that some of these increases may be due to the spread of B.1.617.2 (delta variant). Given that there are communities in the US with low vaccination rates and high vaccine hesitancy, there is considerable potential for B.1.617.2 transmission even in the period of lowest seasonality. The policy strategies for the US remain the same: make every effort to convince the hesitant to get vaccinated, promote mask use where transmission begins to increase, and consider social distancing measures if transmission increases lead to rising hospitalizations or deaths.

• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas (Figure 6).
  

• In the US, 67.4% of people say they would accept or would probably accept a vaccine for COVID-19. This is down by 0.3 percentage points from last week. The fraction of the population who are open to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 54% in Wyoming to 79% in the District of Columbia (Figure 18).
  
  
  

 

[essentialsaltes]

July 1 policy briefing for the US.

Daily cases stopped declining in the last week.
Based on examining hospitalizations, cases, and deaths, we estimate that 14 states now have increasing transmission.
our models suggest that cases and deaths will increase slowly over the next three months. Nevertheless, it is quite possible that the Delta variant has more immune escape and more transmissibility than we currently estimate, which could drive summer surges in some states.
As seasonality starts to increase in the fall, we expect that there will be sufficient individuals susceptible to the Delta variant to sustain larger surges later in the year.

 

[essentialsaltes]

They skipped last week. July 14 policy briefing.

Daily reported cases in the last week (through July 12) increased to 18,000 per day on average compared to 15,100 the week before (Figure 1).

Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in 38 states (Figure 6).

In United States of America 72.8% of people say they would accept or would probably accept a vaccine for COVID-19. This is up by 0.3 percentage points from last week. The fraction of the population who are open to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 49% in Mississippi to 90% in Hawaii (Figure 18).

In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen, our model projects 653,000 cumulative reported deaths due to COVID-19 on November 1. This represents 50,000 additional deaths from July 12 to November 1. Daily reported deaths will rise to 580 by October 1, 2021 (Figure 20)

At some point from July through November 1, 12 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds (Figure 23). At some point from July through November 1, 14 states will have high or extreme stress on intensive care unit (ICU) capacity (Figure 24).