IHME now estimating 600,000 US COVID-19 deaths by May 1 (was 350K by Jan)

[Paulos23]

For those that like graphs to understand things, here is a good video on the data from the pandemic so far. I found the last two graphs on the number of new cases vs deaths by country then by US states to be educational.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Jan 22

443,181 for Feb 1 <--- a drop
517,459 for Mar 1 <--- a drop
554,533 for Apr 1 <--- a tiny drop
568,806 for May 1 <--- a tiny increase

Jan 28

439,478 for Feb 1 <--- a drop
509,358 for Mar 1 <--- a drop
560,277 for Apr 1 <--- an increase
594,623 for May 1 <--- a really big increase

They have added a new "rapid variant increase" model to their existing scenarios (worst case, universal mask usage, and reference scenario, which is what I've been reporting)

From the briefing:
We expect only 38% of the US will be immune by May 1, suggesting a long way to achieving herd immunity.
Effective R, computed jointly using cases and the infection detection rate, hospitalizations and the infection hospitalization rate, and deaths and the infection- fatality rate, is greater than 1 in only in Vermont

 

[essentialsaltes]

Jan 28
439,478 for Feb 1 <--- a drop
509,358 for Mar 1 <--- a drop
560,277 for Apr 1 <--- an increase
594,623 for May 1 <--- a really big increase

Feb 4

441,142 for Feb 1 <--- a slight increase
507,249 for Mar 1 <--- a slight decrease
560,227 for Apr 1 <--- virtually the same
601,698 for May 1 <--- an increase
630,881 for Jun 1 <--- new forecast

 

[essentialsaltes]

Feb 4

441,142 for Feb 1 <--- a slight increase
507,249 for Mar 1 <--- a slight decrease
560,227 for Apr 1 <--- virtually the same
601,698 for May 1 <--- an increase
630,881 for Jun 1 <--- new forecast

Feb 12

445,806 for Feb 1 <--- an increase
509,110 for Mar 1 <--- a slight increase
553,168 for Apr 1 <--- a decrease
587,730 for May 1 <--- a big decrease
614,503 for Jun 1 <--- a big decrease

From the briefing:

US daily cases have declined sharply, with daily deaths beginning to decline. The epidemic trajectory over the next four months will be determined by the balance of four factors with many different outcomes possible. Two are driving down transmission: 1) the continued scale-up of vaccination helped by the fraction of adults willing to accept the vaccine reaching 71%, and 2) declining seasonality, which will contribute to declining transmission potential from now until August. Two factors, however, can slow or even reverse the declines that have begun: 1) the spread of variant B.1.1.7, and 2) increased behaviors that favor COVID-19 transmission.

• Daily deaths in the last week decreased to 2,820 per day on average compared to 3,080 the week before (Figure 2). COVID-19 remains the number 1 cause of death in the US this week (Table 1).
  
  
• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is less than 1 in all states (Figure 3).
  

 

[essentialsaltes]

Feb 12

445,806 for Feb 1 <--- an increase
509,110 for Mar 1 <--- a slight increase
553,168 for Apr 1 <--- a decrease
587,730 for May 1 <--- a big decrease
614,503 for Jun 1 <--- a big decrease

Feb 20

448,652 for Feb 1 <--- an increase
510,236 for Mar 1 <--- a slight increase
548,553 for Apr 1 <--- A decrease
572,916 for May 1 <--- A decent decrease
589,197 for Jun 1 <--- a big decrease

Briefing: Infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are steadily declining in the US. The main driver of this decline is seasonality, aided by expanding levels of vaccination. Counteracting the combined effect of seasonality and vaccination is the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant, which likely accounts for less than 20% of infections today but will increase to 80% by late April.

[COVID-19 remains] the number 1 cause of death in the United States of America this week (Table 1).

 

[essentialsaltes]

Feb 20

448,652 for Feb 1 <--- an increase
510,236 for Mar 1 <--- a slight increase
548,553 for Apr 1 <--- A decrease
572,916 for May 1 <--- A decent decrease
589,197 for Jun 1 <--- a big decrease

Feb 25

448,024 for Feb 1 <--- tiny decrease
510,175 for Mar 1 <--- tiny decrease
545,954 for Apr 1 <--- a decrease
564,083 for May 1 <--- a decent decrease
574,062 for Jun 1 <--- a decent decrease

Briefing:
Despite increasing mobility and the spread of new variants, particularly B.1.1.7, daily cases continue a dramatic decline that began in the second week of January. While the decrease is likely driven by declining seasonality and rising vaccination, it is faster than expected.
Daily deaths are also declining, but the decline is half the size of daily cases. The slower decline is due in part to the expected lag between the trend in cases and deaths, but may also be due to rising infection-fatality ratios in several states including Alabama, Arizona, California, Delaware, and Georgia.

• COVID-19 remains the number 1 cause of death in the United States of America this week (Table 1). Daily deaths have dropped nearly 35% in the last 5 weeks.
  

 

[essentialsaltes]

Feb 25

448,024 for Feb 1 <--- tiny decrease
510,175 for Mar 1 <--- tiny decrease
545,954 for Apr 1 <--- a decrease
564,083 for May 1 <--- a decent decrease
574,062 for Jun 1 <--- a decent decrease

March 6

511,073 by Mar 1 <--- tiny increase
546,313 by Apr 1 <--- tiny increase
564,494 by May 1 <--- tiny increase
572,820 by Jun 1 <--- tiny decrease
576,026 by Jul 1 <--- new forecast

March to April is ~35K deaths. June to July is not much over 3,000. We had about a month where the daily death toll was that much.

Doesn't appear to be a new policy briefing for the US.

 

[essentialsaltes]

March 6

511,073 by Mar 1 <--- tiny increase
546,313 by Apr 1 <--- tiny increase
564,494 by May 1 <--- tiny increase
572,820 by Jun 1 <--- tiny decrease
576,026 by Jul 1 <--- new forecast

March 11
512,607 by Mar 1 <--- tiny increase
553,682 by Apr 1 <--- increase
580,488 by May 1 <--- big increase
594,423 by Jun 1 <--- big increase
598,523 by Jul 1 <--- big increase

From the US briefing: Daily cases and deaths continue to decline slowly. However, transmission is increasing in 19 states, which represents a major change from two weeks ago. Over the last week the US has seen the largest one-week increase in mobility since the pandemic began. This huge jump in mobility means 22 states have mobility levels within 10% of the pre-COVID-19 baseline. At the same time, mask use has begun to fall after remaining stable for many weeks; these falls are large in some states including Texas.
The return to increasing transmission in a subset of states is most likely related to these behavioral changes, combined with the further spread of the variant B.1.1.7. These developments have led us to increase our forecast of cumulative deaths by July 1 by more than 20,000 to 599,000. If more rapid behavioral relaxation than expected continues, transmission could easily increase enough to counteract the effect of vaccination scale-up and decreasing seasonality. If that occurs, daily cases and deaths could easily increase through March and April. The increases currently observed in Europe – driven by the spread of B.1.1.7, despite more extensive social distancing mandates than in the US – are a clear warning of the potential for transmission to intensify.

• COVID-19 remains the number 1 cause of death in the US this week (Table 1).
  
  Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in 19 states (Figure 5). This shift to increased transmission is a major change from two weeks ago, when all states had an effective R below 1.
  
  Available genetic sequencing data suggests that variant B.1.1.7 is the majority of new infections in California and Florida (Figure 7).
  

 

[essentialsaltes]

March 11
512,607 by Mar 1 <--- tiny increase
553,682 by Apr 1 <--- increase
580,488 by May 1 <--- big increase
594,423 by Jun 1 <--- big increase
598,523 by Jul 1 <--- big increase

March 17
513,207 by Mar 1 <--- tiny increase
551,280 by Apr 1 <--- small decrease
575,962 by May 1 <--- decrease
590,808 by Jun 1 <--- decrease
596,201 by Jul 1 <--- small decrease

From the briefing:
National trends remain favorable, with declines in daily cases and deaths. This national trend masks diverging patterns across states, with major population states such as California, Texas, and Florida declining, but also with 10 states having effective R over 1.05. The clearest upward trend is in Michigan, which also has the highest estimated prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant.

• Daily deaths in the last week decreased to 1,300 per day on average compared to 1,600 the week before (Figure 2). This makes COVID-19 the number 2 cause of death in the United States of America this week (Table 1). [for the first time in months it's not #1]
  
  Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in 24 states (Figure 5).
  
  Variant B.1.1.7, based on limited sequencing data collected in the US, is circulating at high rates in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Jersey (Figure 7).
  
  Mobility last week was 14% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline (Figure 9). Mobility was near baseline (within 10%) in 25 states. Mobility was lower than 30% of baseline in California and the District of Columbia.
  

 

[essentialsaltes]

March 17
513,207 by Mar 1 <--- tiny increase
551,280 by Apr 1 <--- small decrease
575,962 by May 1 <--- decrease
590,808 by Jun 1 <--- decrease
596,201 by Jul 1 <--- small decrease

March 25
513,614 by Mar 1 <--- tiny increase
550,373 by Apr 1 <--- tiny decrease
575,500 by May 1 <--- tiny decrease
593,327 by Jun 1 <--- increase
600,195 by Jul 1 <--- increase

From the briefing:
Daily cases declined by 2% over the last week, while daily deaths declined by over 20%. The majority of states in the northern half of the country now have increasing transmission, with the most pronounced increases in Michigan. The increases are likely related to the combination of the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant and recent increases in mobility.

• COVID-19 is the number 2 cause of death in the US this week (Table 1).
  
  
• Based on the analysis of publicly available sequence data and modeled scale-up of these data, we estimate that B.1.1.7 is becoming the dominant variant in the Southeast and in many Midwestern states.
• Mobility was near baseline (within 10%) in 22 states. Mobility was lower than 30% of baseline in California and the District of Columbia.

 

[essentialsaltes]

March 25
550,373 by Apr 1 <--- tiny decrease
575,500 by May 1 <--- tiny decrease
593,327 by Jun 1 <--- increase
600,195 by Jul 1 <--- increase

April 1

550,856 by Apr 1 <---tiny increase
579,394 by May 1 <---increase
601,232 by Jun 1 <--- increase
609,172 by Jul 1 <---increase

US briefing:
Daily cases are increasing, and daily deaths have remained largely constant. In some states, most notably Michigan, a large surge is underway. Given steady relaxation of social distancing mandates and steady increases in mobility (combined with the spread of B.1.1.7), a repeat of the Michigan pattern in many other states is a distinct possibility.

• Daily reported cases in the last week increased to 58,600 per day on average compared to 54,600 the week before (Figure 1).
  

 

[essentialsaltes]

April 1

550,856 by Apr 1 <---tiny increase
579,394 by May 1 <---increase
601,232 by Jun 1 <--- increase
609,172 by Jul 1 <---increase

April 8
551,004 by Apr 1 <---tiny increase
577,899 by May 1 <---small decrease
602,179 by Jun 1 <--- small increase
612,953 by Jul 1 <--- increase
618,523 by Aug 1 <--- new forecast

US briefing: Daily cases increased 9% over the last week while daily deaths decreased. The national averages mask that in more than half of the states, transmission is increasing. The largest surge has been in Michigan, where daily cases have increased over 500% in the last month and deaths are beginning to increase. The surge in Michigan cannot be explained fully by mobility, mask use, or B.1.1.7 spread; some other factors must be driving up transmission. The trend in the next two months will depend on the balance of increased vaccination, variant spread, particularly of escape variants, and the behavioral response of the public.

• Daily deaths in the last week decreased to 870 per day on average compared to 950 the week before (Figure 2). This makes COVID-19 the number 2 cause of death in the United States of America this week (Table 1).
  

 

[essentialsaltes]

April 8
551,004 by Apr 1 <---tiny increase
577,899 by May 1 <---small decrease
602,179 by Jun 1 <--- small increase
612,953 by Jul 1 <--- increase
618,523 by Aug 1 <--- new forecast

April 16

551,828 by Apr 1 <--- small increase
575,169 by May 1 <--- small decrease
599,617 by Jun 1 <--- small decrease
611,791 by Jul 1 <--- tiny decrease
618,275 by Aug 1 <--- tiny decrease

Briefing: First, every effort should be made to counter the slow decline in vaccine confidence. We expect to reach the limit of demand sometime in May with current trends. Second, states should try to sustain mask use. Sustaining mask use can make a major difference to the probability of a B.1.1.7 surge spreading more widely in the US. Third, every effort should be made to avoid introduction of escape variants such as B.1.351, P1, and the double mutant found in India from spreading more widely in the US.

• Daily reported cases in the last week increased to 66,600 per day on average compared to 64,400 the week before (Figure 1).
  
  
• Daily deaths in the last week decreased to 720 per day on average compared to 780 the week before (Figure 2). This makes COVID-19 the number 2 cause of death in the United States of America this week (Table 1).

• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in 36 states (Figure 5). Effective R is over 1.1 in Washington, Nebraska, Minnesota, Michigan, Maine, and Hawaii.
  
  • In the US, 67.4% of people say they have been vaccinated or would accept or would probably accept a vaccine for COVID-19. This has slowly but steadily declined from a high near 75% at the beginning of February. The fraction of the population who are open to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 49% in Wyoming to 86% in the District of Columbia (Figure 17).
    

 

[essentialsaltes]

April 16

551,828 by Apr 1 <--- small increase
575,169 by May 1 <--- small decrease
599,617 by Jun 1 <--- small decrease
611,791 by Jul 1 <--- tiny decrease
618,275 by Aug 1 <--- tiny decrease

April 23

552,131 by Apr 1 <--- tiny increase
572,722 by May 1 <--- decrease
591,242 by Jun 1 <--- decrease
599,001 by Jul 1 <--- big decrease
602,723 by Aug 1 <--- big decrease

Briefing: Transmission is increasing in 34 states, leading to a national increase of 3% in daily cases over the last week. In contrast, daily deaths declined slightly in the last week. Michigan, with the largest spring surge, appears to be reaching a peak. Sustained high levels of mask use is a critical reason why the spread of B.1.1.7 so far has not been associated with a larger surge. Encouraging vaccination and continued mask use, along with avoidance of large gatherings should be the mainstays of policy at the state level.

• Daily reported cases in the last week increased to 68,900 per day on average compared to 66,700 the week before, an increase of 3% (Figure 1).
  
  
• Daily deaths in the last week decreased slightly to 670 per day on average compared to 700 the week before (Figure 2). COVID-19 remains the number 2 cause of death in the US this week (Table 1)
• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in 34 states (Figure 5).

 

[2BeholdHisGlory]

Why dont they keep track of the covid as they do with all deaths and do per year counts. Instead of rolling over one years total deaths into a whole new year?

For example, 655,000 Americans die from heart disease each year

That typically gets zero'd out and starts again for the following year

Unless you did that on the title of the thread which says 350K Jan is that figure one years total deaths from the last Jan?

 

[essentialsaltes]

Why dont they keep track of the covid as they do with all deaths and do per year counts. Instead of rolling over one years total deaths into a whole new year?

Because the pandemic is a particular historic event. Like the pandemic 100 years ago, or the Holocaust, or the Vietnam War. We associate a total number with the event.

 

[2BeholdHisGlory]

Because the pandemic is a particular historic event. Like the pandemic 100 years ago, or the Holocaust, or the Vietnam War. We associate a total number with the event.

Ok gotcha sort of like the Spanish infuenza pandemic of 1918-19 went a little over a year.

I always thought if I lived back then I would have known several people who had died on my block or something, the way they portrayed it in movies making it appear that angel of death passed over and there was no house without the dead in it. While we know no one, even when we have asked those who service our home, like our electrician or heater maintenance guy, garage installers and others. I would whisper, do you know anyone? Not one said they knew anyone but to tell the truth about that draws wrath from people simply for mentioning that.

Let me ask about the number 350K that you posted, are those numbers of people that died from covid (not just with covid) from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021?

 

[Pommer]

While we know no one, even when we have asked those who service our home, like our electrician or heater maintenance guy, garage installers and others. I would whisper, do you know anyone? Not one said they knew anyone but to tell the truth about that draws wrath from people simply for mentioning that

You wouldn’t be complaining about being one of the lucky ones who knows no-one who knows of someone who has died from this, would you?

 

[2BeholdHisGlory]

You wouldn’t be complaining about being one of the lucky ones who knows no-one who knows of someone who has died from this, would you?

No not at all, I don't even believe all the people I have asked (or have asked me) believe themselves to be complaining when assking either. There are some people who get really agitated when others are lucky enough (as you call them) not to know a single soul who has tested positive let alone have died from it for some reason. That can come across as if they might prefer the numbers of deaths going up around them and just cant stand to hear that these people are not experiencing the same thing.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Let me ask about the number 350K that you posted, are those numbers of people that died from covid (not just with covid) from Jan 2020 to Jan 2021?

That 350K was the number estimated by this model sometime in the middle of 2020, but yes, the estimate was for calendar 2020. The actual number was something like 377,883 according to the CDC.