How long are you willing to be on Lockdown?

[ZNP]

OH I thought you were meaning that 99% would die, but you are saying that the 99% remaining to rebuild.

The absolute worst spots on the globe have not had more than a 5% death rate. When looked at globally we have only had 61,000 deaths. That is about one ten thousandth of the world's population. So even if this doubles again, and again and again, it is unlikely to ever hit 1% of the world's population. I am not aware of any worst case scenarios that envision that unless you are talking about a very long time frame of several years.

Second it is highly likely that the great majority of those who die will be either retired or infirm. There will be individuals that are employed who die, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the workforce a year from now. Which is why we should bounce back very quickly.

 

[dogs4thewin]

The absolute worst spots on the globe have not had more than a 5% death rate. When looked at globally we have only had 61,000 deaths. That is about one ten thousandth of the world's population. So even if this doubles again, and again and again, it is unlikely to ever hit 1% of the world's population. I am not aware of any worst case scenarios that envision that unless you are talking about a very long time frame of several years.

Which is good we want as few people to die as possible currently the number of deaths in the U.S according to United States Coronavirus (COVID-19) Tracker stands at a little over 7k while the recoveries stand at nearly 10k. Meanwhile the cases are rising at a rate of 1.13% the deaths at 1.18% and recoveries at 1.70% All of this with currently a little under 280k confirmed cases.

 

[ZNP]

March 16 NYC closed the public schools. During that week NY state and NYC began to implement many restrictions and take the situation serious.

Now we have seen a doubling in the deaths every 3 days (25% daily increase in deaths) consistently since the very beginning in the US. That said the last two days have shown a very slight decrease in that rate. It is the thing that could indicate a slowing in the increase due to the measures taken, it is also the kind of thing that could collapse as hospitals become overwhelmed or people decide that it isn't worth it to stay home anymore.

Also if you look at what happens across the globe people are becoming homeless because of this, something that will only cause the spread to get worse. People are also becoming unemployed, a stress that has its own health effects and should be factored in. Others are going bankrupt. I think these are some of the reasons these pandemics hit in waves with the second wave often being worse than the first.

Look at this thread "how long will you be willing to be on lockdown". That was a week ago. The current best case scenario is that this first wave peaks by the end of April. Will people be wiling to wait that long? You hear from Governors, Presidents, and pundits an eagerness to put this behind us, and get back to work even if that means people die.

So is it realistic that people will take the best course of action? I doubt it.

 

[dogs4thewin]

March 16 NYC closed the public schools. During that week NY state and NYC began to implement many restrictions and take the situation serious.

Now we have seen a doubling in the deaths every 3 days (25% daily increase in deaths) consistently since the very beginning in the US. That said the last two days have shown a very slight decrease in that rate. It is the thing that could indicate a slowing in the increase due to the measures taken, it is also the kind of thing that could collapse as hospitals become overwhelmed or people decide that it isn't worth it to stay home anymore.

Also if you look at what happens across the globe people are becoming homeless because of this, something that will only cause the spread to get worse. People are also becoming unemployed, a stress that has its own health effects and should be factored in. Others are going bankrupt. I think these are some of the reasons these pandemics hit in waves with the second wave often being worse than the first.

but I am confused unless the second wave is a different strain ( not saying it could not be. Then how could it be worse if the people who have already had it (whether they knew it or not) could not get it.

 

[ZNP]

but I am confused unless the second wave is a different strain ( not saying it could not be. Then how could it be worse if the people who have already had it (whether they knew it or not) could not get it.

Think about 1 month from now, May 6. People come out of their homes, go back to work, take the subway, the bus, use the ATM, go to the grocery store, go to the unemployment office, etc. The virus is still active, there are still people who are contagious, but people are desperate, they have to eat, they have to pay rent. Except this is far different from March 16 when these measures were first imposed. Now, May 6, we have millions of people infected not thousands. The number is 1,000 fold greater, and the hospitals are not only overwhelmed, but have been for the last month causing exhaustion and sickness for health care workers.

It is simple economics, if they didn't have the resources or will to take this seriously and test everyone when they first knew how serious it was in December then they surely don't have the resources or will to truly clean it up when it is costing 1,000 times more to do that.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Think about 1 month from now, May 6. People come out of their homes, go back to work, take the subway, the bus, use the ATM, go to the grocery store, go to the unemployment office, etc. The virus is still active, there are still people who are contagious, but people are desperate, they have to eat, they have to pay rent. Except this is far different from March 16 when these measures were first imposed. Now, May 6, we have millions of people infected not thousands. The number is 1,000 fold greater, and the hospitals are not only overwhelmed, but have been for the last month causing exhaustion and sickness for health care workers.

OH so until EVERYONE gets it since more people have it it will go faster. I know you are not God or anything, but what numbers would you think these restrictions will be loosen?

 

[ZNP]

OH so until EVERYONE gets it since more people have it it will go faster. I know you are not God or anything, but what numbers would you think these restrictions will be loosen?

There are two factors involved. There is the advice from the scientists and there is the desperation of the government, the poor, and business.

What we are already seeing is that many are screaming it is better for a few old people to die than for the US economy to go belly up. That pressure will increase every day until it is no longer possible to ignore. On the other hand the numbers of deaths will increase so dramatically that people will realize the seriousness of this either vicariously from the news or from a close family member or friend dying.

What I expect will happen is once the first wave peaks and begins to come down the forces crying about the financial cost will spring on it and say the danger has passed. So we'll return to work too soon. Probably early May.

 

[dogs4thewin]

There are two factors involved. There is the advice from the scientists and there is the desperation of the government, the poor, and business.

What we are already seeing is that many are screaming it is better for a few old people to die than for the US economy to go belly up. That pressure will increase every day until it is no longer possible to ignore. On the other hand the numbers of deaths will increase so dramatically that people will realize the seriousness of this either vicariously from the news or from a close family member or friend dying.

What I expect will happen is once the first wave peaks and begins to come down the forces crying about the financial cost will spring on it and say the danger has passed. So we'll return to work too soon. Probably early May.

When should we go back to work instead?

 

[SimplyMe]

but I am confused unless the second wave is a different strain ( not saying it could not be. Then how could it be worse if the people who have already had it (whether they knew it or not) could not get it.

To be fair, there are already (at least) 8 strains of the virus. To this points, all the strains are very similar, then again, it has only been about 4 months.

 

[loveofourlord]

There are two factors involved. There is the advice from the scientists and there is the desperation of the government, the poor, and business.

What we are already seeing is that many are screaming it is better for a few old people to die than for the US economy to go belly up. That pressure will increase every day until it is no longer possible to ignore. On the other hand the numbers of deaths will increase so dramatically that people will realize the seriousness of this either vicariously from the news or from a close family member or friend dying.

What I expect will happen is once the first wave peaks and begins to come down the forces crying about the financial cost will spring on it and say the danger has passed. So we'll return to work too soon. Probably early May.

While I'm for the distancing, I do have one fear about it, which is that we could end up like the spanish flu where sociail distancing creates a disaster if a later more serious infection comes about

 

[ZNP]

When should we go back to work instead?

I am already working, we are teaching remotely. Also, since I have had it and recovered and it has been 3 weeks I would go back to work now.

What should happen in a perfect world is that you get tested, if you are not infected or have recovered you go back to work, everyone with it is quarantined. Also, everyone going into an office or shop has their temperature read and if they have a temperature they are not allowed in.

This is essentially what Taiwan did from day 1.

 

[dogs4thewin]

I am already working, we are teaching remotely. Also, since I have had it and recovered and it has been 3 weeks I would go back to work now.

What should happen in a perfect world is that you get tested, if you are not infected or have recovered you go back to work, everyone with it is quarantined. Also, everyone going into an office or shop has their temperature read and if they have a temperature they are not allowed in.

This is essentially what Taiwan did from day 1.

but I meant going back into the office regular working you just said early May was too early.

 

[ZNP]

but I meant going back into the office regular working you just said early May was too early.

What is going to happen in this country is they will have everyone return. If we had the ability to test everyone (and we don't, not yet) then there would be no reason for this. 1. Test everyone, those who are infected stay home in quarantine.
2. Those who came in contact with someone who is infected get tested repeatedly until we are sure they are not infected.
3. Those who are not infected or who have recovered return to work (after the office has been cleaned).

This is the cheapest and best way to handle a contagious disease. Essentially taken straight from the book of Leviticus.

The problem is you have to react with the utmost urgency at the first recognition of a problem to keep it manageable.

For example, suppose we did this in December. Surely we didn't have the ability to test that many, so instead we use thermometers and anyone coming from an area known to be infected that has a temperature is quarantined. If we determine that this person is infected we spread the net wider to everyone on the plane.

Again, not perfect, but as we get ramp up the ability to test we can use the tests as well as the thermometer. As a result many in quarantine would be released after a day or even after 15 minutes as the tests become better. Likewise we spread the net wider after 15 minutes or after a day for those tested that are positive.

At the very least they could require hand held thermometers be used at every shop, restaurant or business that wishes to reopen. What would be even better is you can get a ring that goes on your finger and lights up when you have a fever. People could be required to wear those to go in public. That would protect subways and buses as well. This isn't perfect, you can be contagious without a fever, but it is far better than what we have done.

 

[dogs4thewin]

What is going to happen in this country is they will have everyone return. If we had the ability to test everyone (and we don't, not yet) then there would be no reason for this. 1. Test everyone, those who are infected stay home in quarantine.
2. Those who came in contact with someone who is infected get tested repeatedly until we are sure they are not infected.
3. Those who are not infected or who have recovered return to work (after the office has been cleaned).

This is the cheapest and best way to handle a contagious disease. Essentially taken straight from the book of Leviticus.

The problem is you have to react with the utmost urgency at the first recognition of a problem to keep it manageable.

For example, suppose we did this in December. Surely we didn't have the ability to test that many, so instead we use thermometers and anyone coming from an area known to be infected that has a temperature is quarantined. If we determine that this person is infected we spread the net wider to everyone on the plane.

Again, not perfect, but as we get ramp up the ability to test we can use the tests as well as the thermometer. As a result many in quarantine would be released after a day or even after 15 minutes as the tests become better. Likewise we spread the net wider after 15 minutes or after a day for those tested that are positive.

At the very least they could require hand held thermometers be used at every shop, restaurant or business that wishes to reopen. What would be even better is you can get a ring that goes on your finger and lights up when you have a fever. People could be required to wear those to go in public. That would protect subways and buses as well. This isn't perfect, you can be contagious without a fever, but it is far better than what we have done.

that way we could go back to work quicker. The only way otherwise ( other than what we are doing is to just have people go back to work and basically who lives lives and who does not does not and at some point it will not be an issue.

 

[ZNP]

you can get a good hand held thermometer for less than $150. That seems a small price to pay for you to be permitted to reopen your shop. They would have to hire someone at the door, but with the unemployment you should be able to get someone at minimum wage.

 

[dogs4thewin]

you can get a good hand held thermometer for less than $150. That seems a small price to pay for you to be permitted to reopen your shop. They would have to hire someone at the door, but with the unemployment you should be able to get someone at minimum wage.

Minimum wage though while better than nothing is not going to get you very far ( especially in states like GA that still have the federal minimum wage of $7.25/hr That is less than $64 a day before taxes for an 8 hour shaft very few places, if any is that anywhere near enough ( especially if they loss their unemployment as a result.

 

[Sparagmos]

OH I thought you were meaning that 99% would die, but you are saying that the 99% remaining to rebuild.

Remaining to rebuild?

 

[timothyu]

Yesterday it was projected that at present roughly one million people world wide have gotten this virus. Got it, not died from it. That means, using as an example and averaged out to show the odds, in an arena of 15000 people at a game or concert, only two will catch it. It will take 10 full arenas of people before one will die at the 5% rate.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Remaining to rebuild?

yes, if one percent of the US population dies from this logically that leaves 99% to rebuild the economy.

 

[timothyu]

yes, if one percent of the US population dies from this logically that leaves 99% to rebuild the economy.

Wouldn't it be nice if they were that loyal to the Kingdom? Priorities focused on man's ways I guess.