How does the shutdown end?

How does the shutdown end?

  • Trump caves and signs a budget - nominal or wall funding < $2.5b

    Votes: 8 24.2%
  • Trump gets concessions for wall funding > $2.5b

    Votes: 5 15.2%
  • Trump gets bypassed with veto proof majorities

    Votes: 11 33.3%
  • Trump resigns/impeached

    Votes: 2 6.1%
  • Other (post!)

    Votes: 7 21.2%

  • Total voters
    33

evoeth

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Actually it looks like Trump is going to bypass congress, after which he'll be able to sign a budget bill. That's unless a rider is attached that explicitly prohibits using emergency power that way.
We'll see! I'm very excited
 
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SimplyMe

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I trust you've seen the story on the interim deal. But it's just temporary. I still think in the end he'll try to do it as an emergency measure. It's an abuse of the law, but it looks technically legal.

It was always about a temporary deal. The deal that Trump failed to sign in December, that led to the shutdown, only funded the wall through February.

At this point, it will be interesting to see what is offered by each side in negotiations. As for Trump using "Emergency Powers" -- I suspect that any attempt of Trump to use those powers will be challenged in court -- and I question if the courts will agree with the Trump administrating, that threatening calling the "Emergency" and holding it as a leverage in a negotiation tool for over two months, that using it only after negotiations fail does not constitution an "Emergency."
 
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hedrick

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I question if the courts will agree with the Trump administrating, that threatening calling the "Emergency" and holding it as a leverage in a negotiation tool for over two months, that using it only after negotiations fail does not constitution an "Emergency."
As I understand it, the law pretty much leaves it to the President to define what is an emergency. It's pretty hard to anticipate every kind of emergency, so you just about have to leave it loose. The President has a very scary set of powers, which courts have not normally been willing to challenge. See What the President Could Do If He Declares a State of Emergency. I'm not so convinced that Trump is a would-be dictator, but I think building a wall is well within possibility (though in practice it would take a fair amount of time; I wonder whether $5B would actually be spent while he's in office).
 
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DaisyDay

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As I understand it, the law pretty much leaves it to the President to define what is an emergency. It's pretty hard to anticipate every kind of emergency, so you just about have to leave it loose. The President has a very scary set of powers, which courts have not normally been willing to challenge. See What the President Could Do If He Declares a State of Emergency. I'm not so convinced that Trump is a would-be dictator, but I think building a wall is well within possibility (though in practice it would take a fair amount of time; I wonder whether $5B would actually be spent while he's in office).
Surely he has to make a plausible case for it?
 
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SimplyMe

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I’m not so sure. The whole point is to allow quick responses to emergencies.

OTOH, even if he declares an emergency, he can't just generate funds out of thin air. While he can "steal" some money from the unused budget of Homeland Security or, possibly from the Defense Department, Congress would still need to appropriate money for whatever he "declares" -- and likely whatever department Trump took money from would need extra money appropriated, or would have funding issues for the year.
 
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hedrick

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OTOH, even if he declares an emergency, he can't just generate funds out of thin air. While he can "steal" some money from the unused budget of Homeland Security or, possibly from the Defense Department, Congress would still need to appropriate money for whatever he "declares" -- and likely whatever department Trump took money from would need extra money appropriated, or would have funding issues for the year.
The law permitting the president to declare emergencies gives him the power to redirect certain money that's already been appropriated. Since that money was already intended for actual necessary projects, in the end Congress may have to put it back.

You really don't want to run a country the size of the US without giving the chief executive discretion over a few billion dollars. You can't write your laws assuming that your president is going to be someone like Trump.
 
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SimplyMe

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No, the law permitting the president to declare emergencies gives him the power to redirect certain money that's already been appropriated. Since that money was already intended for actual necessary projects, in the end Congress may have to put it back.

You really don't want to run a country the size of the US without giving the chief executive discretion over a few billion dollars. You can't write your laws assuming that your president is going to be someone like Trump.

Again, I stated he could "steal" the money, as well as that Congress may need to replenish money that is used (at least if they want to keep the project funded). The issue is, with what the wall Trump wants will actually cost (likely well over $25 billion) it is unlikely that Trump can find enough money to fund most of it -- particularly with DHS only having funding currently through Feb 15. Further, I can see Congress refusing to budget more money for the projects that Trump takes the money from, and letting Trump and those departments worry about how to keep things running with their budget shortfalls.
 
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hedrick

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Not being able to get funding for a pet project he's been working on for 2+ years seems to be the exact opposite of a "quick" anything.
That’s why it is misuse of the law. But the law by necessity allows the qppresident discretion.
 
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