Coronavirus disease 2019 - Wikipedia
Prognosis
According to WHO, based on analysis of 44,000 cases of COVID-19 in Hubei province, around 80% of people have a mild form of the disease, 14% developed more severe disease such as pneumonia, 5% have critical disease, and 2% of cases are fatal.
[75]
Among those who died, many had preexisting conditions, including
hypertension,
diabetes, or
cardiovascular disease,
[76] and the median time from initial symptoms to death was 14 days (range 6-41 days).
[77] Males had a death rate of 2.8% while females had a death rate of 1.7%.
[78] In those under the age of 50 the risk of death is less than 0.5% while in those over the age of 70 it is more than 8%.
[78] No deaths have occurred under the age of 10 as of February 26th 2020.
[78]
Epidemiology
Main article:
2019–20 coronavirus outbreak
Overall
mortality and
morbidity rates due to infection are not well established; while the
case fatality rate changes over time in the current outbreak, the proportion of infections that progress to diagnosable disease remains unclear.
[79][80] However, preliminary research has yielded case fatality rate numbers between 2% and 3%;
[81] in January 2020 the WHO suggested that the case fatality rate was approximately 3%,
[82] and 2% in February 2020 in Hubei.
[83] An unreviewed
preprint study by
Imperial College London among 55 fatal cases noted that early estimates of mortality may be too high as asymptomatic infections are missed. They estimated a mean infection fatality ratio (the mortality among infected) ranging from 0.8% when including
asymptomatic carriers to 18% when including only symptomatic cases from Hubei province.
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