GOP retirements in the House may indicate a "rush to the exits"

[essentialsaltes]

Three House Republicans said last week they would not seek another term next year, catching party strategists off guard. Those announcements came earlier than in a typical election cycle, when members who are ready to hang up their voting cards usually wait until after the August recess or after the Christmas break.

Six Republicans have now said they will not seek reelection next year.

“Moving from the majority to the minority changes your mindset about why am I here, am I getting things done,” Davis said. “It’s a very frustrating life for some of these members right now.

The job of serving in Congress itself has changed in recent years. Members of Congress now routinely skip town hall meetings to avoid being confronted by angry constituents, they are frequently asked to defend President Trump’s Twitter habits and the House Republican Conference is increasingly influenced by a small group of hard-right conservatives.

“Serving in the era of Trump has few rewards. He has made an already hostile political environment worse. Every day there is some indefensible tweet or comment to defend or explain. It is exhausting and often embarrassing,” the member of Congress said.

Being the incumbent is one of the strongest factors in your favor in an election. With retirements like these, the GOP is losing that factor.

 

[Resha Caner]

Being the incumbent is one of the strongest factors in your favor in an election. With retirements like these, the GOP is losing that factor.

Both parties have some cracks in their infrastructure. We could be approaching an institutional shift. No one can know if or when, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Hank77]

Being the incumbent is one of the strongest factors in your favor in an election. With retirements like these, the GOP is losing that factor.

I haven't looked at the voting results for the last time these people were elected but if they didn't win by sufficient margins they may be being encouraged not to run. The party may have someone else in mind who they think will have a better chance of winning.

 

[essentialsaltes]

I haven't looked at the voting results for the last time these people were elected but if they didn't win by sufficient margins they may be being encouraged not to run. The party may have someone else in mind who they think will have a better chance of winning.

It's more the opposite. Of the three, two are from deep red districts unlikely to flip, so it's 'safe' for them to retire, if they don't like the job any more. The other won by 5% in 2018.

 

[Resha Caner]

If it happens, my scenario would be that the Republican Party disappears leaving the U.S. a single party system for an election or two. Then the Democratic Party splits into a liberal wing and a conservative wing.

 

[Richard T]

Actually, this could be a good thing. Stronger conservatives with more backbone could be the result. The minority party always matters. Usually Presidents, Senators and cabinet members rise from their ranks.

 

[cow451]

Actually, this could be a good thing. Stronger conservatives with more backbone could be the result. The minority party always matters. Usually Presidents, Senators and cabinet members rise from their ranks.

So far none of the conservatives in Congress has shown much backbone, so it would be a change.

 

[Resha Caner]

So far none of the conservatives in Congress has shown much backbone, so it would be a change.

With respect to your NRA cartoon, Noam Chomsky has a very insightful hypothesis that seems quite likely. He says the whole liberal/conservative dichotomy misses what's really going on - even the Nolan chart.

His view of history is that nations are a tension between a ruling elite and general public (yes, a bit of Marxism in that view) - in our case Republicans being the party of the elite and the Democrats the part of the masses. The game becomes how a small elite can hold power. They depend on two things:

1. The first is typical of all such power struggles - the fact that the party of the masses is too diverse and can never agree on a core political program. So, the elite can use a divide-and-conquer technique.

2. The second is unique to a democracy. How does a small elite get enough votes? That's where the NRA comes in. The elite get votes by carefully choosing sides on hot-button issues. Suppose they're losing the farming vote to liberal Democrats handing out subsidies. We'll be pro-gun to pull away a big chunk of that farmer voting block. Suppose they're losing the women's vote to liberal Democrats handing out education subsidies. We'll be pro-life to pull away a big chunk of that women's voting block.

His point is that these are low-cost, high vote-getting issues that don't make any sense in terms of a governing strategy. Their only purpose is to get votes. Then, once in office, the elite could care less about those issues. They give an inflammatory speech on the floor of the Senate from time to time to fire up the base, and then go back to governing exactly how they please.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

So far none of the conservatives in Congress has shown much backbone, so it would be a change.

Speaking of backbone less so called conservatives in Congress, I just found out that back in the 60s former Senator John McCain traveled to VIETNAM and even appeared in some PROPAGANDA movies with COMMUNIST VIETNAMESE SOLDIERS just like JANE FONDA! No wonder the most popular elected President of all time, Donald J. Trump, didn’t like the guy.

 

[cow451]

Speaking of backbone less so called conservatives in Congress, I just found out that back in the 60s former Senator John McCain traveled to VIETNAM and even appeared in some PROPAGANDA movies with COMMUNIST VIETNAMESE SOLDIERS just like JANE FONDA! No wonder the most popular elected President of all time, Donald J. Trump, didn’t like the guy.

Yes, I believe they dined on native cuisine and manned an artillery post together.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Members of Congress now routinely skip town hall meetings to avoid being confronted by angry constituents,

Exhibit A.

Rep. Scott Perry held a town hall in a 200-person capacity firehouse. Only 60 were allowed in.

“I’m a constituent of Scott Perry’s. I got an email alert mentioning the town hall and asking for an RSVP. I responded in less than five minutes but was put on a waiting list. I found it kind of funny that the town hall was already full,” said Tracy Brown, an activist with Hershey Indivisible Team told CQ Roll Call.

Perry faced a hostile crowd at his last town hall in 2017.

 

[cow451]

Exhibit A.

Rep. Scott Perry held a town hall in a 200-person capacity firehouse. Only 60 were allowed in.

“I’m a constituent of Scott Perry’s. I got an email alert mentioning the town hall and asking for an RSVP. I responded in less than five minutes but was put on a waiting list. I found it kind of funny that the town hall was already full,” said Tracy Brown, an activist with Hershey Indivisible Team told CQ Roll Call.

Perry faced a hostile crowd at his last town hall in 2017.

Thanks, Trump.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Will Hurd (the only black Republican in the House) will not seek reelection.

The 23rd District is almost 70% Latino, and Hillary Clinton won it by about 3.5 percentage points in 2016. Last year's midterm elections left Hurd as one of just three House Republicans to sit in a district carried by Clinton, not Trump.

Without Hurd, who was seen by Republicans and Democrats alike as an unusually strong GOP incumbent, the Cook Political Report has moved its rating for this seat from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.

 

[cow451]

Will Hurd (the only black Republican in the House) will not seek reelection.

The 23rd District is almost 70% Latino, and Hillary Clinton won it by about 3.5 percentage points in 2016. Last year's midterm elections left Hurd as one of just three House Republicans to sit in a district carried by Clinton, not Trump.

Without Hurd, who was seen by Republicans and Democrats alike as an unusually strong GOP incumbent, the Cook Political Report has moved its rating for this seat from Toss Up to Lean Democratic.

A poster observes that every Black Republican in the House is leaving.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

A poster observes that every Black Republican in the House is leaving.

I’m sure that some would see that as a very good thing.

 

[cow451]

I’m sure that some would see that as a very good thing.

A poster could say MAWA.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

A poster could say MAWA.

Isn’t that what is meant by “great again”?

 

[cow451]

Isn’t that what is meant by “great again”?

Well, the W isn’t referencing a former president.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Another R-TX is retiring.

Rep. Kenny Marchant, an eight-term lawmaker from the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs, said Monday he won’t seek re-election in 2020. That made him the 11th GOP representative to so far say he’ll step aside — compared to just three Democrats — and the seventh in just two weeks.

Marchant is the fourth Texas Republican to say he’s heading home. Of that group, he’s the third whose district now seems in play for Democrats, who see the state as fertile ground for building their House majority.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Georgia Senator Isakson resigning for health reasons. Both Georgia Senate seats will be on the ballot in 2020.

While on the topic of health, I'll also mention Rep. Sean Duffy, R-Wis., who announced his resignation a few days ago due to health issues affecting his unborn daughter.