Fivethirtyeight has Biden:Trump at 85:15

[durangodawood]

48.2% of voters. Thank God the electoral college prevented a "tyranny of the majority" situation, as it was designed to do. With Biden polling higher than Hillary did, it will be interesting to see the results. Will have to remember to come back to this thread once all the chips have fallen.

If that result would be tyranny, then so is the result we have....except its by the minority.

 

[Triumvirate]

Given how often I'm refreshing that page they should just call it F5-thirty-eight

 

[98cwitr]

If that result would be tyranny, then so is the result we have....except its by the minority.

All these advantages will happily combine in the plan devised by the convention; which is, that the people of each State shall choose a number of persons as electors, equal to the number of senators and representatives of such State in the national government, who shall assemble within the State, and vote for some fit person as President. Their votes, thus given, are to be transmitted to the seat of the national government, and the person who may happen to have a majority of the whole number of votes will be the President. But as a majority of the votes might not always happen to centre in one man, and as it might be unsafe to permit less than a majority to be conclusive, it is provided that, in such a contingency, the House of Representatives shall select out of the candidates who shall have the five highest number of votes, the man who in their opinion may be best qualified for the office.

-Most likely Hamilton; Federalist Paper No. 68

The Federalist Papers, Number 68

Complaints are everywhere heard from our most considerate and virtuous citizens, equally the friends of public and private faith, and of public and personal liberty, that our governments are too unstable, that the public good is disregarded in the conflicts of rival parties, and that measures are too often decided, not according to the rules of justice and the rights of the minor party, but by the superior force of an interested and overbearing majority. However anxiously we may wish that these complaints had no foundation, the evidence, of known facts will not permit us to deny that they are in some degree true. It will be found, indeed, on a candid review of our situation, that some of the distresses under which we labor have been erroneously charged on the operation of our governments; but it will be found, at the same time, that other causes will not alone account for many of our heaviest misfortunes; and, particularly, for that prevailing and increasing distrust of public engagements, and alarm for private rights, which are echoed from one end of the continent to the other. These must be chiefly, if not wholly, effects of the unsteadiness and injustice with which a factious spirit has tainted our public administrations.

-Madison, Federalist Paper No. 10

 

[durangodawood]

The powers of the president are the same whether elected by a majority or a minority. So "tyranny" isnt in the electoral process.

 

[SimplyMe]

Texas is going to be very interesting. Just under 2 weeks left until election day and they've already gotten roughly 2/3rds of the total votes in 2016.

What makes it even more interesting, polls in Texas undercounted Democrats in 2018. I've not seen a strong analysis of it, but what I've seen indicates that it is because of the strong turnout in 2018 -- Democrats have had a tendency not to vote in Texas. With the strong turnout this year, it will be interesting to see what result it might have -- particularly if it will mean Democrats have been under-sampled in Texas this year.

 

[Paulos23]

538 put out a great video on what went wrong in 2016 and what went right and how polls work.

 

[Vylo]

86.9% of 2016 votes already in Texas..... florida, Georgia, NC, all with high numbers. This could spell a blow out victory for Biden at this rate.

 

[hislegacy]

86.9% of 2016 votes already in Texas..... florida, Georgia, NC, all with high numbers. This could spell a blow out victory for Biden at this rate.

It could also spell a blow out for Trump, unless you have info showing only Democrats use the early and mailing voting....

 

[FireDragon76]

Do they have internet?

Most aren't educated enough to get jobs on the internet. The schools in those regions are usually poor quality.

 

[essentialsaltes]

It could also spell a blow out for Trump, unless you have info showing only Democrats use the early and mailing voting....

Polls have consistently shown that for 2020, Republicans prefer to vote in person, and Democrats prefer to vote absentee/mail.

That said, I wouldn't put too much stock in the huge early numbers. COVID-19 is driving a lot of people to do something different than usual.

 

[Vylo]

It could also spell a blow out for Trump, unless you have info showing only Democrats use the early and mailing voting....

Mail in voting is heavily favored for democrats due to Covid.

In person Early voting has favored the GOP by ~300k votes, but mail ballots have favored the dems by nearly 2 to 1, a staggering 6.8 million advantage at this time.

 

[SimplyMe]

Given the title of the thread, I thought I might update that FiveThirtyEight now has Biden with an 88% chance of winning the election, compared to 12% chance for Trump.

 

[GreatLakes4Ever]

Polls have consistently shown that for 2020, Republicans prefer to vote in person, and Democrats prefer to vote absentee/mail.

That said, I wouldn't put too much stock in the huge early numbers. COVID-19 is driving a lot of people to do something different than usual.

I agree. I won’t believe we have higher voter turnout until the numbers break the 2016 total. I think the Election Day numbers are going to be way down. This year was the first year I voted not on Election Day.

 

[CitizenD]

The Fivethirtyeight election model has moved to 89:11

This is normal as we move towards election day.

Polling uncertainty comes mostly from sampling error.

The election model uncertainty contains the polling sampling error + uncertainty in the voter turnout model + uncertainty due to the possibility that public opinion will change between the poll and the election. And the closer you are to the election, the lower the likelihood that public opinion changes between the polls and the election. There is just not as much time for any real changes to happen. There is also slightly less uncertainty in the voter turnout model because... well most people are voting by mail this election. So they have actually already voted.

So it is completely normal that election models shift up in certainty towards election day.

 

[hislegacy]

Polls have consistently shown that for 2020, Republicans prefer to vote in person, and Democrats prefer to vote absentee/mail.

That said, I wouldn't put too much stock in the huge early numbers. COVID-19 is driving a lot of people to do something different than usual.

Did the polls include the effects of two things.

1. COVID
2. The violence against Trump supporters happening systemwide?

Seems to be a distinct possibility to avoid potential violence and/or conflict.

 

[Paulos23]

Did the polls include the effects of two things.

1. COVID
2. The violence against Trump supporters happening systemwide?

Seems to be a distinct possibility to avoid potential violence and/or conflict.

I think the reaction to those two things is the strong numbers in early voting where it is allowed.

I don't think it will shift the numbers either way that hasn't already shown in the polls.

 

[hislegacy]

I think the reaction to those two things is the strong numbers in early voting where it is allowed.

I don't think it will shift the numbers either way that hasn't already shown in the polls.

Could be accurate or not. We will see in a couple of days.

 

[lasthero]

Could be accurate or not. We will see in a couple of days.

...minor point, but has anyone noticed how the word ‘couple’ stopped meaning ‘two’ and now seems to be synonymous with ‘a few’?

 

[CitizenD]

...minor point, but has anyone noticed how the word ‘couple’ stopped meaning ‘two’ and now seems to be synonymous with ‘a few’?

It's been that way for a couple of decades.

 

[lasthero]

It's been that way for a couple of decades.

Bleh, I’m getting old.