Finance thread

[createdtoworship]

I want to talk about all things financial. Including saving an emergency fund. Getting out of debt. And yes, investing. Maybe prepping. (this is open to believers and non believers). Realize that you cannot post financial advice on this forum at all in any form, you can't say....hey sell your house and buy bitcoin. That would be bad. Investing involves risk and nothing posted here by me reflects advice I am not a broker or any kind of financial guru, I am just a lay man. But I do read financial news, I don't like sports or hobbies really but I like finance. So anyway, I will start with that.

 

[createdtoworship]

Oil is very cheap, I won't say buy I will just say it's cheap.

 

[Richard T]

Not a great video because it fails to mention the fees and other challenges that the fund has in investing in oil. Oil prices are not the same for all dates. Contango occurs when the future price of oil is greater than the current price. Thus, sometimes USO is buying oil in the future and it loses some percentage over time. What Contango Means For Oil ETFs In other words, in real life, USO and other ETF's have costs that may hurt them from mirroring the price of crude. I would not let this discourage you necessarily but if you are investing, it is good to know all the facts.
There are also other ways to invest in oil. Royalty trusts, are just one of those. Generally, an oil royalty trust owns a specific field of oil. When they sell that oil, the holders get dividends if the oil is above a certain price. As oil goes up the trust earns more money. These trusts though decline over time as eventually the field runs out of oil, usually it takes years and they can give you estimates on this. There are both publicly traded trusts and private ones. Royalty Trusts: 10 Little-Known High-Yield Energy Plays
Of course you can also invest in oil companies, drillers, oil field equipment, retail gas sales, refining etc.
I do not recommend or discourage oil investments. Pricing is all about supply and demand. Demand is terrible right now and supply is plentiful because the Saudi's and Russians are not on the same page on limiting output. If the Saudis are smart they will wait until many of the USA companies go bankrupt. Whiting Petroleum was the first since COV-19 to do that.

 

[createdtoworship]

Not a great video because it fails to mention the fees and other challenges that the fund has in investing in oil. Oil prices are not the same for all dates. Contango occurs when the future price of oil is greater than the current price. Thus, sometimes USO is buying oil in the future and it loses some percentage over time. What Contango Means For Oil ETFs In other words, in real life, USO and other ETF's have costs that may hurt them from mirroring the price of crude. I would not let this discourage you necessarily but if you are investing, it is good to know all the facts.
There are also other ways to invest in oil. Royalty trusts, are just one of those. Generally, an oil royalty trust owns a specific field of oil. When they sell that oil, the holders get dividends if the oil is above a certain price. As oil goes up the trust earns more money. These trusts though decline over time as eventually the field runs out of oil, usually it takes years and they can give you estimates on this. There are both publicly traded trusts and private ones. Royalty Trusts: 10 Little-Known High-Yield Energy Plays
Of course you can also invest in oil companies, drillers, oil field equipment, retail gas sales, refining etc.
I do not recommend or discourage oil investments. Pricing is all about supply and demand. Demand is terrible right now and supply is plentiful because the Saudi's and Russians are not on the same page on limiting output. If the Saudis are smart they will wait until many of the USA companies go bankrupt. Whiting Petroleum was the first since COV-19 to do that.

you sound like you know a bunch, thats good. I am actually looking at a higher leveraged oil fund myself. But here is a chart I did: (click to enlarge)

 

[createdtoworship]

Not a great video because it fails to mention the fees and other challenges that the fund has in investing in oil. Oil prices are not the same for all dates. Contango occurs when the future price of oil is greater than the current price. Thus, sometimes USO is buying oil in the future and it loses some percentage over time. What Contango Means For Oil ETFs In other words, in real life, USO and other ETF's have costs that may hurt them from mirroring the price of crude. I would not let this discourage you necessarily but if you are investing, it is good to know all the facts.
There are also other ways to invest in oil. Royalty trusts, are just one of those. Generally, an oil royalty trust owns a specific field of oil. When they sell that oil, the holders get dividends if the oil is above a certain price. As oil goes up the trust earns more money. These trusts though decline over time as eventually the field runs out of oil, usually it takes years and they can give you estimates on this. There are both publicly traded trusts and private ones. Royalty Trusts: 10 Little-Known High-Yield Energy Plays
Of course you can also invest in oil companies, drillers, oil field equipment, retail gas sales, refining etc.
I do not recommend or discourage oil investments. Pricing is all about supply and demand. Demand is terrible right now and supply is plentiful because the Saudi's and Russians are not on the same page on limiting output. If the Saudis are smart they will wait until many of the USA companies go bankrupt. Whiting Petroleum was the first since COV-19 to do that.

the only problem with owning a royalty trust, is that in the case of oversold oil. All these american oil fields are idle as russia and iran battle out their oil agreements. If they reach an agreement later this week to reduce flooding market, oil pops. If not, we have a few more lower resistances, I see about a 25% drop at most, before going up again. But it's oversold right now, and american oil can't compete with this oil price so they are just sitting on unemployment right now. So royalties are not paying anything right now, and you risk losing your entire fund if they go bankrupt with these low prices. So I recommend highly liquid funds or large ETF's that cover a broad market of oil I would not invest in a single stock fund. But an ETF with diversified coverage of the market in case one or ten oil fields go bankrupt.

 

[dqhall]

you sound like you know a bunch, thats good. I am actually looking at a higher leveraged oil fund myself. But here is a chart I did: (click to enlarge)
View attachment 274415

There was a time when people worried the world was running out of oil and natural gas. They were building LNG ports to import liquified natural gas. They mined tar sands in Alberta, Canada and converted it to lighter distillates. The South African company SASOL converted coal to oil.

Eventually Texan drillers learned how to combine horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking to release natural gas from porous but impervious shale rock. This technology was later used to release oil and natural gas liquids from shales. After some years they produced millions of barrels of oil per day from shale formations. Natural gas became so cheap and common they started using natural gas to generate electric power instead of coal. LNG import terminals were refitted to be used to export LNG abroad.

This technology is being introduced to other nations. Oil and natural gas are no longer scarce commodities. There is a glut.

 

[createdtoworship]

There was a time when people worried the world was running out of oil and natural gas. They were building LNG ports to import liquified natural gas. They mined tar sands in Alberta, Canada and converted it to lighter distillates. The South African company SASOL converted coal to oil.

Eventually Texan drillers learned how to combine horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking to release natural gas from porous but impervious shale rock. This technology was later used to release oil and natural gas liquids from shales. After some years they produced millions of barrels of oil per day from shale formations. Natural gas became so cheap and common they started using natural gas to generate electric power instead of coal. LNG import terminals were refitted to be used to export LNG abroad.

This technology is being introduced to other nations. Oil and natural gas are no longer scarce commodities. There is a glut.

unfortunately for cheap oil it's beneficial to russia and iran to keep it cheap for awhile, making small oil companies fold and increasing their share of the market. I think it's a double edged sword because if they crash our economy at this weak time, it could put their own country into recession and I am not sure that the risk is worth the reward, so I think they will agree thursday to reduce output. But you can never tell. I think fear sort of looms that as markets recover, now is not the time to fight over oil.

 

[A_Thinker]

I want to talk about all things financial. Including saving an emergency fund. Getting out of debt. And yes, investing. Maybe prepping. (this is open to believers and non believers). Realize that you cannot post financial advice on this forum at all in any form, you can't say....hey sell your house and buy bitcoin. That would be bad. Investing involves risk and nothing posted here by me reflects advice I am not a broker or any kind of financial guru, I am just a lay man. But I do read financial news, I don't like sports or hobbies really but I like finance. So anyway, I will start with that.

Basic rules for achieving financial stability ...

1.) Work consistently
2.) Spend LESS than you EARN
3.) Avoid the use of CREDIT cards
4.) If buying on credit ... a house, a car, etc. ... get the lowest interest rate available. I felt successful in this if I kept my interest rates at 5% or below. Today, I average about 3% or below.
5.) Handle your finances well. Pay your bills on time. Good financial management will pay off in lower interest rates for credit.
6.) Be prepared for catastrophic circumstances (i.e. save for a rainy day). Keep a Health insurance policy. Keep good vehicle insurance.
7.) Stay out of trouble.
8.) Invest 5% or more of your income in blue-chip (i.e. established stocks ... Amazon, Apple, IBM, Walmart, etc.). Once again, such investment should be part of a trusted investment plan (i.e. 401K, IRA, etc.)
9.) Begin to observe how financial markets work (i.e. good times to invest vs. bad times to invest).

 

[essentialsaltes]

3.) Avoid the use of CREDIT cards

My rule is 'Use them, but pay the entire balance each month (thus avoiding interest charges)'.

 

[Richard T]

the only problem with owning a royalty trust, is that in the case of oversold oil. All these american oil fields are idle as russia and iran battle out their oil agreements. If they reach an agreement later this week to reduce flooding market, oil pops. If not, we have a few more lower resistances, I see about a 25% drop at most, before going up again. But it's oversold right now, and american oil can't compete with this oil price so they are just sitting on unemployment right now. So royalties are not paying anything right now, and you risk losing your entire fund if they go bankrupt with these low prices. So I recommend highly liquid funds or large ETF's that cover a broad market of oil I would not invest in a single stock fund. But an ETF with diversified coverage of the market in case one or ten oil fields go bankrupt.

I do like holding oil at these levels, but would be too concerned about time erosion of a leveraged ETF, though I admit the returns could be great. In my dabbling, I bought 2022 uso puts and then sell short term puts of 1-2 weeks. I also hold some long term uso calls and also sell short-term calls against those. I would make the most money on this if oil prices remain neutral but at each options expiration of the calls and puts I have sold, I can make adjustments. I will however be hurt by any wild price swings. I'll let you know how this turns out. As to royalty trusts, I would have to do further research on the individual trust. I have owned BPT in the past, but it's field is now far closer to depletion, and if it does not pay out in two years then the trust will close it and sell off any remaining assets. I was not in it during this bull run but at one time it went from four something to over 100 dollars.

 

[createdtoworship]

I do like holding oil at these levels, but would be too concerned about time erosion of a leveraged ETF, though I admit the returns could be great. In my dabbling, I bought 2022 uso puts and then sell short term puts of 1-2 weeks. I also hold some long term uso calls and also sell short-term calls against those. I would make the most money on this if oil prices remain neutral but at each options expiration of the calls and puts I have sold, I can make adjustments. I will however be hurt by any wild price swings. I'll let you know how this turns out. As to royalty trusts, I would have to do further research on the individual trust. I have owned BPT in the past, but it's field is now far closer to depletion, and if it does not pay out in two years then the trust will close it and sell off any remaining assets. I was not in it during this bull run but at one time it went from four something to over 100 dollars.

There are leveraged Oil ETF's as well that would also overcome any erosion. (UCO) I have not heard of ETF erosion. Most hedge fund managers have either become proficient at ETF's and market indices (as compared to bonds and mutual funds), or quit their jobs as money managers. Market indices have consitstently outperfomed hedge funds over the last ten years meaning many are simply moving their funds over to SPY and other index funds. I really like SPLV but it has a bad bid ask spread, but if you are holding long term it will still pay out. (but it's a low volitility index fund for the SP500) meaning it's roughly half as risky as SPX or SPY, it' dips in price during recessions are roughly half as much as you would normally get. The way they get around risky stocks, is they pick thetop 100 least risky companies of the sp500 (five hundred top american companies), they calculate this risk as volitility, so they basically take the top 100 least volitile stocks, and use those as the basis of their index. So it's like an SP100 sort of, but I hope it becomes more liquid. If more people find less risk as attractive, it will become more popular, then options etc will be easier on it. As far as oil, here is an article put out today, they are assuming even if US does not cut production of oil, they will still agree to cut 10 million or whatever
The Solution To The Oil Price War | OilPrice.com

 

[createdtoworship]

Oil producers agree to cut production by a fifth

 

[createdtoworship]

last two times unemployment was at 4.4 from below, it was right before last two recessions. Could we be in for several more months of pain? I don't know. But we could...

 

[jayem]

My rule is 'Use them, but pay the entire balance each month (thus avoiding interest charges)'.

Absolutely. Not to mention that it’s pretty much a necessity these days to have a good credit score. Using a credit card responsibly—which, as you noted, means paying the balance every month—will achieve that. With a good credit score, you can get the best cash-back rewards card. So you can actually earn money by using the card. Which is as it should be. Merchants pay a fee to the card companies on every transaction. The card issuers want you to use their card. So when you do, why shouldn’t you get a rebate from them?

Obviously, you should only use a card that has an interest-free grace period before payment is due. For most cards, it’s 23 days or so. And you should always know the closing date—the day of the month the current billing cycle ends. Any purchases you make after that date won’t show up until next month’s statement. And then you have 23 days to pay it off before interest accrues. So if you can put off any major purchase until just after the closing date, you’ll have 28 days or so before you get the credit card statement. And then another 23 days to pay it off before interest is charged. You’re getting a 51 day interest-free loan from the card issuer. And with a cash-back rewards card you also get a 1-5% rebate. Not too shabby.

 

[createdtoworship]

Warren Buffet went all into the market again last week, does that mean it's a good time now? I don't know, and no one else does either, but all the indicators say so. Some tips...Avoid individual stocks. Buy indexes mutual funds or ETF's that cover at least 10 funds. Buy funds w/500k to 1million daily volume. The way the CCI indicator works is if the indicator is rising above negative 100 it's a buy. It only happens like this every few years. Sells can trigger from either simply placing a trailing stop loss (mine will be at 40%) due to this funds high leverage or you can decide to sell when price goes below CCI positive 100. 5 years of stock trading resulted in this one chart on weekly setting: you can lookup any stock you want.... just click the ticker symbol... TECL Interactive Stock Chart | Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares Stock - Yahoo Finance

 

[createdtoworship]

here is a financial article I wrote at the end of last years saying that the markets were due to fall, it's a little outdated but still has some valuable information about saving, how retirements, hedging your portfolio and other stuff, it's like 15 pages, so save it and read a little at at time. click here to download

It's just that perfect financial opportunities don't occur often, so I thought I would send some info out for those christians out there who desire to look into it more.

 

[NxNW]

Basic rules for achieving financial stability ...

8.) Invest 5% or more of your income in blue-chip (i.e. established stocks ... Amazon, Apple, IBM, Walmart, etc.). Once again, such investment should be part of a trusted investment plan (i.e. 401K, IRA, etc.)

An IRA or 401k is not an investment plan, it's a retirement account. Many 401k's don't allow investing in individual stocks, because they are more risky than the overall market. You're better off, over the long run, investing in broad-based index funds.

9.) Begin to observe how financial markets work (i.e. good times to invest vs. bad times to invest).

Market timing is almost impossible. Investing equal amounts periodically, i.e. Dollar Cost Averaging, will outperform market timing over the long run.

 

[NxNW]

Duplicate

 

[createdtoworship]

An IRA or 401k is not an investment plan, it's a retirement account. Many 401k's don't allow investing in individual stocks, because they are more risky than the overall market. You're better off, over the long run, investing in broad-based index funds.

Market timing is almost impossible. Investing equal amounts periodically, i.e. Dollar Cost Averaging, will outperform market timing over the long run.

actually roth IRA's you can take unlimited withdrawls I believe on both contributions and returns if I am not mistaken, after five years. Roth 401k's are different and have more limitations. But double check me, I don't know if you can withdraw both contributions and returns, it may only be contributions. It's been a few months since I checked, I have the worst case of short term memory.

 

[createdtoworship]

at least download an stock trainer app on google play, it's free, you just need an account. It's sort of weird like a bank and asks for three questions in case your password is lost. But I used that trainer for probably a year straight learning to trade. Went from 20,000 to about 350,000 in about fifteen weeks. I still use it for statistical reasons. On the trainer (ONLY) buy TECL and watch it for next six months, if it doesn't double your money, or give you 100% gain, you can call me a total liar. I have been called one before unfortunately. Don't do it with real money as that involves risk and you cannot make financial recommendations here or anywhere really if you are not a broker with a licence to do so. So for now, just play with it, and learn. Can't go wrong:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.alifesoftware.stocktrainer&hl=en_US