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February 19th Democratic Debate

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by mark46, Feb 18, 2020.

  1. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Everyone presumes that this debate will be critical for Bloomberg. I suspect not. He's not running this week or next! He'll just be stealing time from Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, and Biden. And Sanders will be strongly contributing to this effort by his constant calling out Bloomberg for trying to buy the primary and general election (most Democrats are fine with someone having a way to beat Trump).

    Personally, I think that this is the last gasp for Buttigieg and Warren. Klobuchar will continue her audition for VP. Biden could wiped out by Bloomberg if he doesn't do very well. After all, Biden need to come in at least 2nd in Nevada and a solid first in SC. Otherwise, March 3rd will be a disaster for him.
     
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  2. Silmarien

    Silmarien Existentialist

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    Warren, possibly, though I'm hoping Bloomberg's presence puts some wind in her sails.

    I don't know how you could say that it's the last gasp for Buttigieg, though, considering that he's currently in the lead.
     
  3. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    Joe Biden is expected to win in SC, so he is not dropping out immediately after the NV caucuses. So far it looks like Super Tuesday will be the end for him.

    I don't understand why Michael Bloomberg is suddenly becoming popular. His critics have been saying his "stop and frisk" policy makes him a racist but I don't know anything about that. He was a Republican, not a Democrat, during his 12 years as the NYC mayor, and labeled as a centrist.
     
  4. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    Bernie Sanders is a heavy favorite in Nevada. Pete Buttigieg is only barely leading.
     
  5. Silmarien

    Silmarien Existentialist

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    I don't see how someone could go from leading, even if barely, to dropping out immediately after the next caucus. Especially since his direct competition isn't really Sanders so much as the other centrists.
     
  6. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    I did not mean he should drop out next week. Bernie Sanders is Pete Buttigieg's biggest compeition BTW.
     
  7. Silmarien

    Silmarien Existentialist

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    Not really, since right now Sanders is competing for the leftist vote and Buttigieg for the centrist vote. Buttigieg needs to knock out the other centrists and unite that wing of the party behind him. Until this is a two-person race, the candidates are competing against the people they are most similar to, not the ones they're most different from.

    Of the centrists, Buttigieg is currently the strongest. It's Bloomberg he'd need to look out for right now rather than Sanders.
     
  8. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    How do you explain Pete Buttigieg being the candidate who almost tied Bernie Sanders in the first caucus and primary?
     
  9. Silmarien

    Silmarien Existentialist

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    What do you mean? Buttigieg is currently leading the centrist field and Sanders is currently leading the leftist field. In Sanders' case, that's unlikely to change, barring a minor miracle, but the center seems much more divided than the left (though it may be coalescing around Bloomberg).
     
  10. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    =================
    Buttigieg did well among white educated voters in Iowa and NH. Now it is time to meet the actual Democratic Party.

    Buttigieg is 6th in today's national poll.
    Sanders surges to double-digit lead in new nationwide poll

    He is running 4th in NV.
    RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 State Democratic Presidential Primary Polls

    Mayor Pete is running 5th in SC, with Klobuchar gaining on him.
    RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary

    Buttigieg is also running 5th in TX. He is running 4th in CA, with Bloomberg likely to pass him soon.
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2020
  11. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Mayor Pete won't drop out until March 4th. However, he really should drop out after his likely 4th place finishes (at best) in NV and SC.
     
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  12. Fantine

    Fantine Dona Quixote Supporter

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    My main concern about Sanders is his ability to help down ballot candidates, especially in the Senate. He isn't even a Democrat.

    If we lose in 2020, the courts will be so unbalanced by 2024 that it will look like the Kappa Kapitalist Oligarchmega fraternity.

    And even if AOC and the Squad ran the country, every law passed would just get overruled by the (not) good old boys fraternity in the courts.

    If our country were not in catastrophe I wouldn't consider Bloomberg, but his funding turned the House, and he is strong in many progressive causes.

    He also owns a media company and knows Trump inside and out. He knows where the bodies are buried (figuratively) and by November we may have to unearth a few.
     
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  13. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    ???
    Please look at the current polling. Buttigieg is leading among moderates exactly nowhere other than Iowa and NH. He is unlikely to have a 3rd anywhere before he drops out.
     
  14. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    To be clear, you don't understand how a centrist could be popular in the Democratic Party, well except for Biden who may or may not survive Super Tuesday.
     
  15. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    We are all just guessing, of course, but my guess goes the other way.

    Since this is Bloomberg's first appearance on the debate stage although he's been much in the news (not to mention a million TV commercials), it may well be critical for him. 'First appearances' and all of that, you know!

    If he's stiff, flippant, acts superior, or comes across as irritated when someone mentions one of the controversial comments he made in the past and which have been well publicized in the last several days...he could be in trouble.
     
  16. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    ???

    Five candidates are ahead of Buttigieg in the last polling. Sanders is the leader by far. Bloomberg is the biggest competition for Bernie, with Biden 3rd.
     
  17. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    I hear you.

    Bloomberg has a couple of weeks and $100M of ads in the next 2 weeks to recover from a poor debate performance, and from a poor showing this week. Super Tuesday is his first time on the ballot. On the other hand, a 4th place finish in Iowa could wipe out Biden, or Buttigieg, or Warren or Klobuchar. The 4th place finisher might not drop out for a week or so, but they would done.
     
  18. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    It is not just about being a centrist. Michael Bloomberg has no political experience above the mayor level. That is an automatic deal breaker for me.
     
  19. Silmarien

    Silmarien Existentialist

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    I'm not quite sure how that turns into "last gasp," though.

    But if you don't think he's going to drop out until March, then a "last gasp" moment would involve the February 25 debate rather than this one, no?

    I wasn't looking at the polling. I was looking at the delegate count, because that's what the actual race involves. Buttigieg is currently in the lead amongst the centrist candidates, though obviously that could change quickly in the next month. My point is that he has to worry about winning over centrist voters, not leftists.
     
  20. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    I agree with you about that so much, Mark, that I should probably just reach for the 'agree' or 'like' buttons and let it go at that. ;)

    The one thing that I feel which may be different from what you wrote here concerns that matter of "you only get one chance to make a first appearance."

    There is, I think, keen anticipation on the part of many Democrats looking for a savior after all the other candidates have proven to have serious shortcomings. IF Bloomberg fails to live up to expectations, he will quite possibly sink back into the pack just as Biden, Mayor Pete, Warren, and Harris did.

    That might be unfair in a way, but if you ride into the fray late like a white knight coming to the rescue, more is expected of you in the short run than is expected from the other warriors.
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2020
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