Ezekiel Emanuel: U.S. Will Have 100 Million Cases Of COVID-19 In Four Weeks, Doubling Every Four Day

[Johnboy60]

Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, chair of the department of medical ethics at the University of Pennsylvania, warned Friday on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," that based on the current rate of spread, there will likely be 100 million Americans infected by the COVID-19 virus in four weeks.

Ezekiel Emanuel: U.S. Will Have 100 Million Cases Of COVID-19 In Four Weeks, Doubling Every Four Days

 

[JIMINZ]

Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, chair of the department of medical ethics at the University of Pennsylvania, warned Friday on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," that based on the current rate of spread, there will likely be 100 million Americans infected by the COVID-19 virus in four weeks.

Ezekiel Emanuel: U.S. Will Have 100 Million Cases Of COVID-19 In Four Weeks, Doubling Every Four Days

He better go take a basic math course.

 

[loveofourlord]

the problem is, the us could have 100 million already, just not enough testing being done to be sure. Can't tell the real growth rate in the US, is the 23k it hit today the total new cases, or the total new cases they could test.

 

[JIMINZ]

the problem is, the us could have 100 million already, just not enough testing being done to be sure. Can't tell the real growth rate in the US, is the 23k it hit today the total new cases, or the total new cases they could test.

The tests show positive for Corona Virus, but the Common Cold is a Corona Virus, and other Flu's are also, so how many people showing Positive actually have COVID 19 they don't really know and probably never will.

The reports say, that China knew what was happening in November, but didn't say anything until January, how many people came from China to the US and around the entire World before we ever heard the first reports.

1) Keep safe in Isolation.
2) Wash your hands after going anywhere public.
3) 6 feet means 6 feet separation.
4) DON"T PANIC!

 

[hedrick]

Personally I don't find a large number of cases frightening. What I find frightening is the prospect of large numbers of deaths and overwhelmed medical service. It appears that we may have barely avoided that.

 

[Tanj]

Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel, chair of the department of medical ethics at the University of Pennsylvania, warned Friday on MSNBC's "Morning Joe," that based on the current rate of spread, there will likely be 100 million Americans infected by the COVID-19 virus in four weeks.

Ezekiel Emanuel: U.S. Will Have 100 Million Cases Of COVID-19 In Four Weeks, Doubling Every Four Days

Sounds about right to me.

 

[hedrick]

The tests show positive for Corona Virus, but the Common Cold is a Corona Virus, and other Flu's are also, so how many people showing Positive actually have COVID 19 they don't really know and probably never will.

Huh? the test is based on matching specific features of the genetic material in the virus. It's not a generic test for every virus in the covid family.

 

[46AND2]

The tests show positive for Corona Virus, but the Common Cold is a Corona Virus, and other Flu's are also, so how many people showing Positive actually have COVID 19 they don't really know and probably never will.

Are you suggesting that they are misinterpreting cold viruses for people with the common cold? You know they sequenced the genome of COVID-19, right?

 

[loveofourlord]

Are you suggesting that they are misinterpreting cold viruses for people with the common cold? You know they sequenced the genome of COVID-19, right?

well the test is lkly looking for surface proteins, and if it's too simular to other coronaviruses it would show up as a match. BUT if that was the case, we would also likly have had partial or full immunity since most of us would have been infected at one time or not from the normal one.

 

[JIMINZ]

Huh? the test is based on matching specific features of the genetic material in the virus. It's not a generic test for every virus in the covid family.

Are you suggesting that they are misinterpreting cold viruses for people with the common cold? You know they sequenced the genome of COVID-19, right?

Then some one must be lying about something.

They have said the virus cases diminish with a lower age group, and that those over 70 and in pore health are at the highest risk of getting and dying from.

So how many are Old and have other medical problems, as opposed to younger people.

They are freaking out in NYC like everyone in the City is going to die within the month.

 

[loveofourlord]

Then some one must be lying about something.

They have said the virus cases diminish with a lower age group, and that those over 70 and in pore health are at the highest risk of getting and dying from.

So how many are Old and have other medical problems, as opposed to younger people.

They are freaking out in NYC like everyone in the City is going to die within the month.

Ummmm the young still get deathly ill, they just recover better, see how that goes when the hospitals are full, and reality check, in new york city they are likly going to be near the point soon of having to let old people die so the young can survive.

 

[46AND2]

Then some one must be lying about something.

They have said the virus cases diminish with a lower age group, and that those over 70 and in pore health are at the highest risk of getting and dying from.

So how many are Old and have other medical problems, as opposed to younger people.

They are freaking out in NYC like everyone in the City is going to die within the month.

No. They are freaking out in NYC because the cases are overwhelming the hospitals. This reduces the care that is available for people with other afflictions, in addition to the "collateral damage" from the coronavirus that you seem to imply that you are ok with.

 

[46AND2]

well the test is lkly looking for surface proteins, and if it's too simular to other coronaviruses it would show up as a match. BUT if that was the case, we would also likly have had partial or full immunity since most of us would have been infected at one time or not from the normal one.

They look for 2 COVID-19 specific genes using PCR.

 

[loveofourlord]

They look for 2 COVID-19 specific genes using PCR.

ahhhh okay, havn't looked into it too much, I know most tests just look for the surface proteins :>

 

[Halbhh]

Personally I don't find a large number of cases frightening. What I find frightening is the prospect of large numbers of deaths and overwhelmed medical service. It appears that we may have barely avoided that.

We are still mostly on the track of Italy, and could do worse. What does that mean? In both Italy and Spain it means that older or frailer patients that could have been saved have not gotten a ventilator, because younger patients that could live a longer life were given priority. It would mean quite a lot more than 200,000 deaths over the coming several months, unless we can do some key things (like making a lot of ventilators or equivalents fast) differently than those countries.

 

[JIMINZ]

We are still mostly on the track of Italy, and could do worse. What does that mean? In both Italy and Spain it means that older or frailer patients that could have been saved have not gotten a ventilator, because younger patients that could live a longer life were given priority. It would mean quite a lot more than 200,000 deaths over the coming several months, unless we can do some key things (like making a lot of ventilators or equivalents fast) differently than those countries.

Next to Japan, Italy has the second oldest population in the world. so yeah a lot of people died in Italy.

 

[Halbhh]

Next to Japan, Italy has the second oldest population in the world. so yeah a lot of people died in Italy.

That will definitely help! As I was pointing out here on CF a couple of weeks ago, our younger average age vs Italy is definitely an aid.

But I'm already taking that into account, in what I said above. Perhaps a more in depth discussion though belongs in a less sensationalist thread than this 100 million in 4 weeks warning above in the OP, to which we won't even get close, since we have been doing distancing and such. (100 million will likely get it, or more, but not that fast; but...still way too fast for our current ventilator capacity, though)

 

[loveofourlord]

of course even younger people get sick, and we may still end up with alot of dead, just younger age range.

 

[Halbhh]

of course even younger people get sick, and we may still end up with alot of dead, just younger age range.

A few days ago it was reported that 96% of U.S. deaths were from patients with underlying health conditions. Of course, such occur at higher rates in older patients, on average. It was reported also today I think that the teen that died had an underlying condition that made this respiratory virus especially dangerous to him.

 

[loveofourlord]

A few days ago it was reported that 96% of U.S. deaths were from patients with underlying health conditions. Of course, such occur at higher rates in older patients, on average. It was reported also today I think that the teen that died had an underlying condition that made this respiratory virus especially dangerous to him.

well thats not the important figure, the important figure is what % of young and healthy are those with severe complications from covid19