Effect Of Ad Money On Super Tuesday

[mark46]

Biden and Buttigieg are spending ZERO on Super Tuesday. To me this means that Buttigieg is
likely be done after Super Tuesday. Warren will stay in to get a few delegates from Sanders in Texas, and the drop out. Klobuchar will be out after losing her home state.

The OPEN question is how Biden will do after coming in likely coming in 2nd in NV and 1st in SC. Will this be enough, or will folks move to Bloomberg on Super Tuesday?

 

[GodLovesCats]

Why do you think Amy Klobuchar will lose in her home state?

Joe Biden's campaign has already announced if he loses in Nevada and South Carolina he is done. He lost big in Nevada and is not the favorite in South Carolina anymore with one week left. Klobuchar told people in bolth Las Vegas and Minneapolis she is preparing for Super Tuesday. So chances are Biden will be next and she will drop out on March 4.

 

[mark46]

Why do you think Amy Klobuchar will lose in her home state?

Joe Biden's campaign has already announced if he loses in Nevada and South Carolina he is done. He lost big in Nevada and is not the favorite in South Carolina anymore with one week left. Klobuchar told people in bolth Las Vegas and Minneapolis she is preparing for Super Tuesday. So chances are Biden will be next and she will drop out on March 4.

1) Biden has never said that he has to win in NV. He just cannot lose (come in 4th or 5th, or a even a poor 3rd). However, I strongly agree that Biden MUST win in SC. Much depends on the support of Clyborn who will give his endorsement after the debate this coming week.

Klubuchar and Warren LOST in NV. Warren got NO bump from the debate. Neither has no path forward. Biden and Buttigieg are now on fumes. Both need to do well on Super Tuesday. For Biden, that requires winning in SC.

2) It really matters little, but I think that Sanders will win in MN. This is based on where everyone was a month ago. A new poll does have her ahead by 5 points or so. In any case, I think that she will drop out within 2 weeks. As an aside, Warren is in danger of losing in MA, her home state.

 

[GodLovesCats]

Joe Biden said he would consider a close second in Nevada a win. That sounds pretty desperate. It's easy to see why he is spending no money on Super Tuesday states. (BTW Bernie Sanders blew out everyone in Nevada)

I will watch the debate in Charleston next week. Will you?

 

[mark46]

Joe Biden said he would consider a close second in Nevada a win. That sounds pretty desperate. It's easy to see why he is spending no money on Super Tuesday states. (BTW Bernie Sanders blew out everyone in Nevada)

I will watch the debate in Charleston next week. Will you?

Yes, but nothing matters in the debate, other than impressing Clyburn enough to get his endorsement. And yes, I will vote for Biden for the 4th time next Saturday.

Yes, Biden is desperate. That doesn't chance the facts. For a month, Biden's goal in NV has been 2nd place, and a solid first in SC. Yes, of course, he would have hoped to be closer to Bernie. But don't overdo this.

We'll see whether Bernie is averaging at least 50% of delegates from now onward. Obviously, this is the requirement to win the nomination per the rules of the Democratic Party. I suppose one might add Warren's delegates to his, since they will likely to move to Sanders.

 

[mark46]

.

I will watch the debate in Charleston next week. Will you?

I don't think that anyone will change their minds based on the Charleston debate. As I have said, Clyburn's endorsement could change minds. Also, any dropouts would obviously free up votes.

HOW DID THE LAST DEBATE CHANGE ANYTHING?
The last debate had the most action of any debate. The attacks were relatively fierce. I would argue that NOTHING changed. Bernie was, and remains, the clear front runner. Buttigieg was non-player until he wins a significant number of delegates in diverse states, starting in NV. Warren and Klobuchar were dead in the water, absent a miracle showing in NV. Warren's great debate showing SHOULD have made a difference in NV. It did not.

Biden showed that he was still running, having to come in 2nd in NV and first in SC to have any chance. And we found out that Bloomberg remains a terrible debater, and will need to win a significant number of delegates on Super Tuesday to be considered a viable candidate.

In a word, I would say that the results were ZERO. Of course, that is what Sanders needed and continues to need. Sanders in the obvious nominee, unless things change dramatically in the next month or so.

 

[Douger]

IMO, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar are dunzos and will have to level with their campaign staff and supporters March 4th.
50-50 chance Biden get's enough results in SC and super Tuesday to give him the fundraising bump that he needs to stay in the race.
Bloomberg's going to keep weirding his way along to some potential power play at the convention or a third party run. He's scary.
The big story though, that kind of dwarfs all the other candidate "what ifs" is how Sander's campaign is looking more and more like a formal victory tour of the country in the run up to his inauguration next January.

 

[GodLovesCats]

Yes, but nothing matters in the debate, other than impressing Clyburn enough to get his endorsement. And yes, I will vote for Biden for the 4th time next Saturday.

If nothing else in the debate mattered, Joe Biden would skip it. Everything people say there will matter.

Yes, Biden is desperate. That doesn't change the facts. For a month, Biden's goal in NV has been 2nd place, and a solid first in SC. Yes, of course, he would have hoped to be closer to Bernie. But don't overdo this.

I think if Biden was close to Sanders in Nevada he would be more likely to win in South Carolina and stay in the race one more week.

 

[mark46]

You ignore the consequences of skipping debates. All who qualify are expected to attend, and they will.

If nothing else in the debate mattered, Joe Biden would skip it. Everything people say there will matter.


I think if Biden was close to Sanders in Nevada he would be more likely to win in South Carolina and stay in the race one more week.

 

[GodLovesCats]

You ignore the consequences of skipping debates. All who qualify are expected to attend, and they will.

Of course they are. Joe Biden was supposed to be much better in Nevada partly because of the debate on Wednesday night. But as we all know, skipping it would have been much better for Mike Bloomberg.