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Economy has about 16-30 years before total melt down, any ideas?...

Discussion in 'General Politics' started by createdtoworship, Feb 12, 2020.

  1. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    I love finance it's my hobby. I am pretty boring, I don't like sports and going to the gym, or watching too many movies, but I like God and I like my family and when I have spare time I like watching finance. I am a perma bear. Basically that means I am bearish on the economy. I know every week our stock market reaches another all time high. But there are some underlying problems. In a last study I did on our bond payments that we make when we print new money. I realized that our bond interest payment go up every year on average. I was surprised to realize that in 30 years, our bond payments will be double what our current tax income as a nation is. Now realize that medicare and social security are roughly 1.5 trillion dollars a year. I think the 2020 tax income is about 3.6 trillion or something like that and our bond payments will be 2X what our 3.6 trillion is at over 6 trillion. Don't believe me? Well look at the graphic below. Now there is something you need to know about bonds. As bond yield goes down their premium goes up but as the yield starts to go up the rate on the bond also goes up. Since bonds have been in a bull market for the last forty years there hasn't been a problem paying bond holders. But now that the yields inverted in august, the bond market is on a weak basis now and yields are going to go up with the interest on them also going up. Bond peaked at 16% in the 80% and fell to about 1%, that is why many countries are exiting US bond holdings and exchanging them for gold. Note that as bond yields go up, the bond itself erodes in value. So if you are holding the bond, it's actual value with decrease. So your retirement in bonds will erode faster in a bond bear market, while in a bond bull market you would see steady gains, it will steadily erode now. (so a CASH SIP investment is safer until bonds normalize). So anyway the following graphic is about a 30 year forecast, but due to bonds becoming more expensive to service, exponentially speaking, I factored that in as a bout a 16 year market forecast, till total melt down. (do you have any ideas on how our country can last 16 years? Lets talk about it. Going on gold standard is one option, but lets talk about reducing costs, or healthcare reform, or whatever.

    Here is the graphic:
    View attachment 271912
    (click to enlarge)

    Going on the gold standard will crash the economy sort of like going to bitcoin would crash the economy, due to restricting liquidity. But if they simply put like 1/1000 of 1$ worth of gold and pegged it to each dollar of fiat. That would get us in the door. Right now 1$ = 0.000635190 ounces of gold. So if we made like I said 1/1000 of that figure equal a dollar. Then we would need roughly 1.9 million ounces of gold to print 3 trillion dollars of money. According to the Bureau of the Fiscal Reserve, there are 147,341,858.382 ounces of gold in Fort Knox as of August 31, 2018. so 147 trillion ounces. So we have plenty of Gold to peg to money. So I don't see really a liquidity problem. If anything it may be hard initially to quantify the gold into denominations, 1,5,10,100 dollar increments. But build ten more US mints. Then it should be fine. That way when you go to the bank you can either get your cash or your gold. To me that is really the only way to do it. Going on the gold standard will double or triple the price of gold per ounce, and lessen the amount per dollar. But if you question the rates, you can always do gold dust. if Gold is always changing, have a automatic machine that puts out the proper ratio of gold dust in a ziplock bag for you, with the amount of ounces on it and current dollar rate to the penny. I believe gold going up will make the dollar weaker at least initially, but like I seen this year gold and the dollar were both going up. So that is technically possible when pegging them together that they will move more closely and not opposite.

    other than getting rid of medicare and social security outright, and even then you are only buying yourself a few decades (at best).​
     

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    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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  2. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    duplicate
     
  3. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    Bond Yield 748.png
    (click to enlarge)
    Bond market - gov debt.png
    (click to enlarge)​
     
  4. SkyWriting

    SkyWriting The Librarian Supporter

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    Not needed. More wealth has been created in the last 10 years than in all of history before that. Measure the income or standard of living of the worlds poor to see that it is increasing faster than it ever has in the past. If it was all factories then it might have been more evenly distributed, but its not.
     
  5. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    It's not wealth per say, we are not talking about corporate wealth or the wealth of the richest 1%. We are talking the united states economy itself. It has a cap right now at 3.6 Trillion. Unless more people get jobs and pay taxes, more people are born, or more taxation that simply won't go up. Just to note I am not sure what percentage of federal taxes are paid by companies, but if you increase that, you have companies leave, if you tax the rich, they leave. The only ones you can tax are the middle income, they can't go anywhere, but to cover the cost, middle income will be 60% taxation to cover bond interest payments. And just to note, amazon did not pay any federal taxes due to a deal with the government over doing their cloud servers. That is a lost taxation of at least 2 billion dollars in taxes gone. I can't imagine a cloud costs two billion. That is one heck of a deal for amazon, Trump should have blocked it.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  6. section9+1

    section9+1 Well-Known Member

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    Kind of irrelevant. Since the climate change warriors are saying we got less than 12 years until the climate does away with us all, what difference does it make.
     
  7. A_Thinker

    A_Thinker Well-Known Member Supporter

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    We'll figure it out ... with God's help.

    We always have ... as long as greed does not overtake the motivation to advance the public good ...
     
  8. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    I am not that optimistic. I believe christians will be ok in the collapsing economy. But I don't think america, or the dollar will be ok.
     
  9. Jermayn

    Jermayn Active Member

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    I'm no market or economy expert so, what do you think would happen if the government just decided to regulate crypto-currency and switch over to that? Or would that even be possible?
     
  10. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    the only issue I would think would liquidity. See stock markets react to the amount of available funds, for simplicity sake it's called liquidity. When central banks print money they are increasing liquidity and that is why markets go up, because central banks have money and that trickles down to the corporations, and their earnings go up, and they are able to buy back their own shares with the newly created cash. Not directly of course, but through a trickle down method. I don't think crypto's are going away any time soon, simply because they are another form of digital currency with their own set of strengths and weaknesses. But crypto is not really liquid. There are only limited banks that carry it. Some stock brokers still don't carry it directly. But more every year are. So right now it's illiquid and if the US would go to bitcoin or ethereum or litcoin it would most certainly crash the economy. All hedge funds would have to pay for stock with crypto. Which is not a reserve fund, so while it would be good for crypto markets it would not be good for our economy, at least at this point. There are many financial experts that recommend a small allotment of crypto in every one's portfolio (up to 5%). You don't want alot simply because it has high volatility right now. Bitcoin has come out of a several month fall in the last few weeks and I bought into it again. But as far as a hedge, crypto is a type of hedge against market exposure. But Gold is a more popular hedge against market risk. But foreign central banks are increasing gold and decreasing bond holdings as rate yields are starting to go up, which makes the bond market more exposed to risk it hasn't seen in 30 years.
     
  11. Brian Mcnamee

    Brian Mcnamee Well-Known Member

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    all wealth is created by new debt so when the credit system of fiat collapses all the value is gone from the fiat money as seen in many countries that have experienced hyperinflation. so your 200K house you bought 10 years ago is now a million that means the guy buying it today borrowed 5 time more money than you did. Every sector that is up is the result of money creation going to inflate the bubbles.
    I believe the powers behind the NWO are running the central banks of the world and will one day collapse the system. Dan 7
    “And in the latter time of their kingdom,
    When the transgressors have reached their fullness,
    A king shall arise,
    Having fierce features,
    Who understands sinister schemes.
    24 His power shall be mighty, but not by his own power;
    He shall destroy fearfully,
    And shall prosper and thrive;
    He shall destroy the mighty, and also the holy people.
    25 “Through his cunning
    He shall cause deceit to prosper under his rule;[fn]
    And he shall exalt himself in his heart.
    He shall destroy many in their prosperity.
    He shall even rise against the Prince of princes;
    But he shall be broken without human means.[fn]
    26 “And the vision of the evenings and mornings
    Which was told is true;
    Therefore seal up the vision,
    For it refers to many days in the future.

    In Rev 6 we see global hyperinflation described when the seal judgments are opened.

    Second Seal: Conflict on Earth
    3 When He opened the second seal, I heard the second living creature saying, “Come and see.”[fn] 4 Another horse, fiery red, went out. And it was granted to the one who sat on it to take peace from the earth, and that people should kill one another; and there was given to him a great sword.

    5 When He opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come and see.” So I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. 6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, “A quart[fn] of wheat for a denarius,[fn] and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not harm the oil and the wine.”

    7 When He opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, “Come and see.” 8 So I looked, and behold, a pale horse. And the name of him who sat on it was Death, and Hades followed with him. And power was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword, with hunger, with death, and by the beasts of the earth.

    The principal is clear the borrower is slave to the lender.
     
  12. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    I agree, good post, I will read it more after i wake up, on nightshift PST, will be back online tonight sometime, thanks for the verse references. I simply don't think that we can print our way out of debt after every recession (which happens on average every ten years). And what I didn't put in the OP was that after every recession the interest payments increase by 33%. So before 2008 interest payments were increasing 6% a year, and after 2008 they started increasing 8% a year. So there is a diminishing return on the more trillions we print. So that is why I believe we have no more than a decade and half. The next recession will have come and gone, and analysts are expecting three times the amount of cash (in trillions) to create the liquidity needed to get out of the next crisis.
     
  13. solid_core

    solid_core Well-Known Member

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    Somebody will quote the Book of Revelation in 3...2...1....
     
  14. Fantine

    Fantine Dona Quixote Supporter

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    Read Robert Reich's "Saving Capitalism."
     
  15. SkyWriting

    SkyWriting The Librarian Supporter

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    Wealth is created by expansion of cooperation. For example isolated countries don't have dollars. But ATM machines allow people to get dollars anywhere. This allows for transactions in places that none existed before. Through cooperation additional opportunities, such as access to money, help economies grow where none existed before.

    We don't HAVE to have cash involved though. World wide there is a growth in barter systems where strangers cooperate to get work done due to information exchanged on cell phones. This increase in cooperation creates wealth.
     
  16. Brian Mcnamee

    Brian Mcnamee Well-Known Member

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    if you buy a car or a house or need money to start a business where to do you get a loan from? The fractional reserve system. If you have 6000 down on a 30000 car you are borrowing 24000 the bank that loans you the money is not loaning you deposits but leveraged reserves. So the 1,000,000 house that you put up 150,000 850,000 is created to fund your loan. Barter is cool and that is why gold and silver worked as a medium of exchange for centuries as the finite nature of the metals held a relative value of exchange so if you had oranges and i had fish but did not like oranges you could barter with me through gold or silver.
     
  17. SkyWriting

    SkyWriting The Librarian Supporter

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    We quit the banking system over 20 years ago. Our credit union uses members savings to make loans. But access to capitol has gone through dramatic changes lately. Theses services use global private crowd-funding sources and are available to all readers in this forum:

    1. Kickstarter. - Quickstart guide to Kickstarter funding
    2. Indiegogo. -
    3. Patreon.
    4. GoFundMe.
    5. Crowdrise.
    6. PledgeMusic.
    7. MightyCause (formerly Razoo).
    8. InKind (formerly Equity Eats).
    9. Crowdfunder.
    10. Give.
    11. Charitable.
    12. Lending Club.
    13. AngelList.
    14. Ulule.
    15. Funding Circle.
    16. Seed&Spark.
    17. Crowdcube.
    18. GoGetFunding.
    19. Fundable.
    20. Kiva.
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    by GLAMOS-CoreDAR

    $271,519 pledged
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    17 days to go


    Geographically, Silicon Valley dominates United States angel investing, receiving 39% of the $7.5B invested in US-based companies throughout Q2 2011, 3–4 times as much as the total amount invested within New England.[12] Total investments in 2011 were $22.5 billion, an increase of 12.1 percent over 2010 when investments totalled $20.1 billion.[29]
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  18. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    Revelation 6:6 stuck out to me like you said as a prophetic word of hyper inflation:
    (Rev 6:5-6) The black horse brings scarcity and inequity.

    When He opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come and see.” So I looked, and behold, a black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not harm the oil and the wine.”

    a. A black horse, and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand: The scales symbolized the need to carefully measure and ration food. This speaks of a time of scarcity.

    b. A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius: These prices are about twelve times higher than normal. It means that it would cost a day’s wage to buy the ingredients for a loaf of bread. This describes “a time of famine when life will be reduced to the barest necessities.” (Walvoord)

    i. We often see great famine in the world today, yet fewer people suffer from hunger today than 100 years ago. However, understanding the world’s precarious ecological balance, it would not take much to plunge many into the kind of scarcity and inequity mentioned here.

    c. Do not harm the oil and the wine: Yet, the nicer things will be available for those who can afford them. There will still be the oil and the wine that should not be harmed.

    from David Guzik commentary blue letter bible:
    Study Guide for Revelation 6 by David Guzik
     
  19. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    you may or may not know this but the banks don't have to have your money in case of a total US bank failure. Right now they are VERY GOOD. They have lots of new laws that keep them afloat after 2008. I think we are good for at least till the next recession for sure. Maybe up to 10 years. But the banks only have to carry 10% of the cash in your transaction accounts (your checking), your saving account they don't have to have any money. They use your money when deposited and invest it into high risk derivative bets on the market. They don't actually have your money after you deposit it. That is important to know. Most people don't liquidate their money once it's in there. But this video might be usefull for this discussion:



    Also below are some new tools since 2008 to control hyper inflation during next recession:

    "One popular method of controlling inflation is through contractionary monetary policy. The goal of a contractionary policy is to reduce the money supply within an economy by decreasing bond prices and increasing interest rates. This helps reduce spending because when there is less money to go around, those who have money want to keep it and save it, instead of spending it. It also means less available credit, which also reduces spending. Reducing spending is important during inflation because it helps halt economic growth and, in turn, the rate of inflation.


    There are three main ways to carry out a contractionary policy. The first is to increase interest rates through the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve rate is the rate at which banks borrow money from the government, but, in order to make money, they must lend it at higher rates. So, when the Federal Reserve increases its interest rate, banks have no choice but to increase their rates as well. When banks increase their rates, less people want to borrow money because it costs more to do so if that money accrues interest. So, spending drops, prices drop and inflation slows."

    above quote from this link:

    What Methods Do Governments Use to Fight Inflation?

    but again I don't think that inflation will have a choice once our outflow to pay our bonds is more than our taxes. And in my new study on this, I will go to half our budget. I will add it here and also add it to OP if I can still: check out this image:

    Bond Interest payments.png
    (click to enlarge)​
     
  20. createdtoworship

    createdtoworship In the grip of grace

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    duplicate
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
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