Earth calamities and Rumors of war

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Russia’s Favorite Mercenaries

Wagner, Russian Private Military Company, Goes to Africa - The Atlantic

In Russia, journalism is far from the safest profession—even more so when the subject of investigation happens to be a private mercenary army engaged in multiple active conflicts abroad. On July 30, three Russian journalists were killed in the Central African Republic (CAR) while investigating a particularly dangerous topic: the Russian private military company Wagner, a mercenary outfit highly active in the Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts. At least two other Russian journalists have also suffered while researching Wagner, including Maxim Borodin, who suddenly fell to his death from a balcony in Yekaterinburg in April, and Denis Korotkov, a Saint Petersburg journalist forced into hiding after receiving death threats owing to his work on Wagner. There are now indications that Wagner forces may be present with both rebels and government forces in the CAR. A unit of the group, filmed by the recently deceased journalists, was operating in rebel-held territory—contrary to Moscow’s assertions that Russian forces were present only to assist CAR authorities.

While Wagner attempts to suppress investigations into its activities, the information available suggests an outfit that plays an increasingly crucial role for Moscow both abroad and at home. But even as this strategy has allowed Russia to rack up military successes without risking its own ground forces, it has also created an explosive situation: Skilled soldiers of fortune who take their orders from an oligarch—not from the Kremlin—are playing a central, unpredictable role in shaping Russia’s foreign policy.
Though the exact nature of Wagner’s relationship to the Kremlin remains murky, it has demonstrated a growing ability to create headaches for Russian authorities. Its origins date back to 2013, when an earlier iteration of Wagner, known as the Slavonic Corps, engaged in a disastrous mission to Syria at the behest of unknown Damascene businessmen. One of the commanders of the Slavonic Corps, a former Russian military intelligence (GRU) colonel named Dmitry Utkin, reemerged shortly thereafter, in early 2014, fighting in eastern Ukraine at the head of a GRU-linked outfit called PMC Wagner. It played a pivotal role in major battles there, working closely alongside Russian military forces and their separatist proxies over the next year and a half.

After proving its mettle in Donetsk, Wagner joined Moscow’s official intervention in Syria shortly after it began in September 2015, playing a leading role in the capture of Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor. Wagner has functioned as an undeclared branch of the Russian military: Its fighters fly to Syria on Russian military aircraft, receive treatment in Russian military hospitals, work alongside regular Russian forces in operations, and are awarded Russian military medals signed personally by Vladimir Putin. Backed by Russian airpower, Wagner fighters have been instrumental to the Syrian government’s reconquest of much of its territory, spearheading assaults against entrenched Islamic State positions in lieu of ineffective Syrian militias.

While Russia has long histories with Ukraine and (to a lesser extent) Syria, nothing of the sort can be said of central Africa, Wagner’s present area of focus. Following talks between Russia and Sudan on security cooperation late last year, a video emerged showing Russian contractors training local pro-government militia in the country. Then, in March 2018, the Kremlin issued a statement that 170 “civilian advisors” (widely understood to mean Wagner forces) had arrived in the CAR to train government forces. At the end of July, another 500 alleged Wagner fighters appeared on the Sudan-CAR border. There are persistent rumors of their current or future presence in Libya, with one Wagner commander stating in March that his fighters would soon head there. These developments seem to confirm reporting from a Russian journalist who, in March, posed as a Wagner recruit to access its main training base in southern Russia. “Half our guys are preparing for Africa,” he was told.

Sub-Saharan Africa probably isn’t a dream destination for Russian fighters, but a hefty financial incentive smooths that over. While the average Wagner paycheck fell last year by a third from its initial value (240,000 rubles monthly, or roughly $3,550), the current rate of 160,000 rubles still far outpaces the typical wages in provincial Russia. Interviews with families of deceased Wagner fighters, many of them drawn from central Russia’s dilapidated Ural region, have confirmed the group’s monetary allure.

more militarized in recent years, with new government initiatives for youth regiments and indoctrination from a young age. Moscow actively encourages this militant nationalism, under the guise of “patriotic mobilization.” Wagner, with its higher salaries and promises of foreign adventure, is well positioned to take advantage of this trend. One of its commanders recently stated that for their recruits, the feeling is clear: “Even if you are 10,000 kilometers from home, you are still fighting for the motherland.”

Wagner could also come to play a key role in Russia itself—namely, in the North Caucasus republic of Chechnya. Following Russia’s brutal reconquest of Chechnya in the early 2000s, it exists within the country as a state within a state, led by Ramzan Kadyrov, who exercises absolute authority with the Kremlin’s blessing. He commands tens of thousands of loyal, highly trained security forces.

For Wagner, Chechens are not just undesirable: They are banned from the organization, according to one commander. Despite this, Wagner fighters have fought alongside Chechens in Syria. While he continues to profess his loyalty as a “foot soldier in Putin’s army,” Kadyrov has grown more brazen in recent years, sometimes directly challenging Kremlin policy. There has been much speculation over whether a third Chechen war is inevitable, and what will happen once Putin’s current term ends in 2024. In the event another conflict does occur, with Kadyrov turning on his erstwhile masters, Moscow may turn to Wagner. As profiles of the fighters killed in Syria suggest, many Wagner recruits are veterans of the Chechen wars. It would seem to be a perfect answer for Russia’s Chechnya problem.

Wagner also offers Putin political insulation. Last year, the Islamic State captured two Wagner fighters in eastern Syria, and paraded them before the camera. Had they been Russian servicemen, the outcry at home would likely have been deafening. Instead, their captivity was brushed aside, with the Kremlin simply saying they were “probably volunteers.”

But this degree of separation is also a liability. Wagner’s forces remain outside the Russian armed forces, following the whims of their master, the oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin. In February, Wagner mercenaries launched a surprise assault on U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, eventually suffering hundreds of casualties in a four-hour firefight that saw heavy American airpower brought to bear on the group. The result: a public-relations catastrophe for the Kremlin, which struggled to explain the nature of these mercenaries who had just assaulted U.S. positions, while covering up dozens of deaths. Judging from the haphazard and repeatedly revised Kremlin explanations of the event, it seems unlikely that Russian officials were apprised of the scale of the assault or its targeting of Americans. But Wagner’s position ultimately depends on the mercurial personal relationships among Prigozhin, Putin, and other top Kremlin officials. An earlier argument between Prigozhin and Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu in mid-2016 was followed by a sharp reduction in the quality of military supplies and air support available to Wagner forces in Syria.

Wagner seems to exist to push the envelope of what Moscow can achieve in new environments. The central African adventure epitomizes this strategy. It allows Russia to enter a foreign, largely hostile environment with minimal risk, and to exploit both political and economic opportunities there. Wagner appears to have tapped this possibility at the highest level, reportedly serving as CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s personal security detail. The withdrawal of hundreds of U.S. soldiers from Africa and widespread antipathy throughout the CAR toward the French, the traditional power brokers in their former colony, have left the CAR as what one United Nations official calls a “free country for the taking.” Russia has spent much of the past decade looking to reassert itself globally; following largely successful forays into the Middle East, Africa marks a natural next step for the Kremlin’s foreign policy. Add in the promise of lucrative gold and diamond resources and it’s easy to see why the country would be an attractive target for Moscow (and a profitable one for Wagner).

Despite these hiccups, the past year has been an eminently successful one for Wagner. One Wagner-focused discussion group on a Russian social-media site has seen a spike of activity the past six months. Many users have expressed their interest in joining, while some heated discussions have emerged. (One commentator, looking to join, was told, “This isn’t a [bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse]ing game like you think,” to which he responded, “I know what war is, I served in Chechnya.”)

There are also indications that the Wagner model is being replicated. In July, a little-known company called Patriot, reportedly well connected to defense-ministry officials and offering better pay than Wagner, surfaced. Its contractors can reportedly earn up to 1 million rubles a month, an unthinkable sum for anyone living outside Moscow’s Garden Ring. It remains to be seen exactly what role Patriot, Wagner, or any other imitators will play in Africa, Syria, and elsewhere going forward, but it appears as though the private military company as an instrument of Russian foreign and domestic policy is here to stay.

South Sudan, Russia’s JSC Zarubezhneft to Cooperate in Oil

South Sudan, Russia’s JSC Zarubezhneft to Cooperate in Oil

South Sudan’s Ministry of Petroleum signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Russia-based JSC Zarubezhneft to begin exploring the country’s open acreage and trading, as well as implement enhanced oil recovery technology and other maintenance programs.

The MoU, signed on Monday in Juba by Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth, Minister of Petroleum of the Republic of South Sudan and Dr. Sergey I. Kudryashov, General Director of JSC Zarubezhneft, will be in effect until October 2019.

It also includes the construction of oil and oil products storage and trading networks both for the internal market of South Sudan and for the neighboring countries and assisting South Sudan’s state-owned oil company on stock workover and maintenance efforts on existing wells.

“South Sudan is honored to work with JSC Zarubezhneft, an international expert in upstream project development. South Sudan has great untapped potential, both in terms of unexplored acreage and in enhanced oil recovery at operational fields, and we believe this partnership will be greatly beneficial to the people of the Republic of South Sudan,” said H.E. Ambassador Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth.

JSC Zarubezhneft, a state-owned oil company based in Moscow, specializes in international exploration and production work, especially development and operation.

Under the agreement, Nilepet, South Sudan’s state-owned oil company, will share information on current projects and new projects possible for joint operation. JSC Zarubezhneft will also provide technical assistance on engineering and research and development.

South Sudan has proved reserves of 3.5 billion barrels of oil, with much of the country still unexplored. The government, led by President Salva Kiir, is keen to raise oil production and has been seeking international investors.

Oranto Petroleum signed an Exploration Production Sharing Contract with South Sudan in 2017, the first ESPA signed since South Sudan achieved independence in 2012.

 

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Rift between PA and Hamas increasing

Rift between PA and Hamas increasing

The Hamas terror organization denounced Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, saying the PA leader has no right to represent the Palestinian Arab people, amid a deepening of the rift between the two factions.

During a conference on Gaza, senior Hamas official Mahmoud al-Zahar called Abbas responsible for all the "crimes" committed against the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria and the Gaza Strip.

Zahar added that the Beilin-Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas] Agreement calling for a Palestinian State was "a national and historic crime against the Palestinian problem" and said that this document led President Donald Trump's quest for "the deal of the century".

Zahar called for activating the "struggle" in the West Bank and Jerusalem, making it clear that the Beilin-Abu Mazen Agreement and President Trump's push for Arab-Israeli peace

Zahar also advocated sending a letter from the Palestinian communities around the world to international organizations in order to remove the legitimacy from the Palestinian Authority.

The rift between the feuding Arab factions is the result of sanctions on Gaza imposed by Abbas, whose Fatah movement has been at odds for years with Gaza’s Hamas terrorist rulers.

Abbas is trying to pressure Gaza's Hamas rulers to return control of Gaza to his Fatah movement, most notably by cutting payment for electricity supplies to Gaza through Israel.

Abbas has refused moves to improve the electricity supply in Gaza unless there is progress in the PA-Hamas reconciliation talks.

Hamas and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah faction have been at odds since 2007, when Hamas violently took control of Gaza in a bloody coup.

A unity government between Hamas and Fatah collapsed in 2015 when Abbas decided to dissolve it amid a deepening rift between the sides.

In October 2017, Hamas and the PA signed a reconciliation agreement in Cairo, under which the PA was to resume full control of Gaza by December 1. However, the deal never completely implemented due what was described as “obstacles.”

Israel said poised to dramatically worsen Palestinian prisoners’ conditions

Israel said poised to dramatically worsen Palestinian prisoners’ conditions

Israel could soon significantly downgrade the prison conditions for Palestinian terror convicts, in a move likely to spark outrage among the prisoners and outside the prison walls.

Hadashot TV news published what it said were conclusions soon to be presented by a committee established four months ago by Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan, tasked with examining the possibility of worsening the prisoners’ conditions to the minimum required by international law.

Erdan announced the formation of the public committee in June in a bid to put pressure on the terror groups to which they belong, chiefly Hamas, to release Israeli citizens and soldiers’ bodies held in Gaza.

According to the report, the committee intends to recommend that Israel drastically reduce family visits for security prisoners, and stop letting them buy meat, fish, fruits and vegetables outside prison. They will also be prohibited from cooking meals in their wards and cells, and their food grinders and blenders are to be taken away.

Additionally, the Israel Prison Service will stop separating the prisoners according to the terror groups to which they belong, meaning that members of rivals factions such as Hamas, Fatah, and Islamic Jihad will be staying in the same ward and even in the same cells.

Other recommendations cited in the report include limiting the number of television channels available to the terrorists, closing the canteens in the wards, and canceling the status of “ward spokesperson” — meaning that only on a few, specific topics will a representative of the prisoners be allowed to speak on their behalf.

The report said the repercussions from such measures, if they are approved by Erdan, could be dramatic — both inside the prisons and in the Palestinian streets — and would require special preparation by the Prisons Service.

Speaking at a counterterrorism conference in Herzliya in June, Erdan said that studies carried out by the ministry concluded that some Palestinians commit terror attacks seeking to be caught and jailed as a way to run away from problems at home, and suggested that worsening conditions could help reduce possible “incentives” for carrying out attacks.

Palestinians have often criticized Israel’s treatment of terror convicts, and prisoners have launched several mass hunger strikes in recent years, seeking to improve their conditions. Last year, hundreds heeded a call by popular Fatah figure and convicted murderer Marwan Barghouti to go on a hunger strike.

The demands back then included the resumption of a second monthly visit by family members (a benefit that was canceled by the International Committee of the Red Cross due to budget cuts), the prevention of family meetings being canceled for security reasons, and the restoration of academic studies and matriculation exams to prisoners. Other demands included more television channels being available in cells and cell phones in security wings.

After 40 days, a deal was struck with Israeli authorities, which the prisoners claimed had met 80 percent of their demands.

 

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Iranians stock up as U.S. sanctions damage Iranian economy

Iranians stock up on as U.S. sanctions damage Iranian economy

Tomato paste is not the most obvious economic indicator, but in Iran, where it is a staple that some people have started panic-buying, it says a lot about the impact of renewed US sanctions.

While Iran makes its own paste from an abundant crop of locally grown tomatoes, sanctions reimposed by US President Donald Trump since August have played havoc with supply.

A 70 percent slide in the rial this year has prompted a scramble for foreign currency that has made exports much more valuable in local terms than selling produce at home.

Some shops are limiting purchases of tomato paste, which is used in many Persian dishes, and some lines have sold out as people buy up existing stock.

The government has responded by banning tomato exports, one of a raft of interventions to try to limit economic instability that has fueled public protests and criticism of the government this year.

But the tomato policy is not working. An industry representative said tomatoes were being smuggled abroad.

"We have heard that trucks full of tomatoes are still leaving the country, especially to Iraq," Mohammad Mir-Razavi, head of the Syndicate of Canning Industry, said by telephone.

"They put boxes of greenhouse tomatoes on top and hide normal tomatoes at the bottom," he said, referring to an exemption for hot-house grown tomatoes that left a loophole.

It is one of many ways in which the sanctions are hurting ordinary Iranians while benefiting those with access to hard currency.

Washington reintroduced steps against Iran's currency trade, metals and auto sectors in August after the US withdrawal from a deal that lifted sanctions in return for limits on Iran's nuclear program. Trump said the deal was not strict enough.

With US curbs on Iran's oil exports set to come into force next month, some Iranians fear their country is entering an economic slump that may prove worse than the period from 2012 to 2015, when it last faced major sanctions.

"There is an emerging consensus that the economy will go through a period of austerity similar to that recorded during the Iran-Iraq war," said Mehrdad Emadi, an Iranian economist who heads energy risk analysis at London's Betamatrix consultancy.

"COMING SOON"

Jumps in prices are occurring in a range of goods — particularly imports such as mobile telephones and other consumer electronics, but also some staples. A bottle of milk, 15,000 rials last year, now sells for 36,000.

An 800-gramme (28-ounce) can of tomato paste was selling in Tehran stores for around 60,000 rials in March; it is now 180,000 rials, or $1.24 at the unofficial rate, prompting a scramble by households to stock up. The price of tomatoes has increased more than five-fold compared to last year.

Signs on the shelves of some stores limit each customer to two cans. Iranian online shopping site Digikala lists the top nine tomato paste items as out of stock, and the rest as "coming soon". In supermarkets in Najaf in neighboring Iraq, meanwhile, supplies of Iranian tomato paste are plentiful.

Adding to the pressure is a fourfold rise in the price of cans, Mir-Razavi said. Traders importing material to make cans sought to buy dollars at a little-used official rate of 42,000 rials; authorities asked them to use a more expensive rate. The issue has delayed shipments of material to factories.

The government is mounting a campaign against price-gouging, periodically ordering shopkeepers to sell at lower prices. But some shopkeepers respond by not selling at all, believing prices will eventually rise again as the sanctions bite.

BANKS STABILIZED

Iran, a big oil producer with a diverse economy, has shown its farming, manufacturing and distribution sectors can ride out long periods of war and sanctions.

The Tehran Stock Exchange index has soared 83 percent this year as shares of exporting companies have rocketed. Urban real estate prices have also risen as Iranians put their savings into property rather than keeping them in depreciating rials.

The rial's plunge, which in the unofficial market has taken it to around 145,000 against the dollar from 42,890 at the end of 2017, according to currency tracking website bonbast.com, may even have strengthened the financial system in one way.

Banks and pension funds have been struggling with massive debts. Emadi said the rial's slide, to as low as 190,000 in late September, had given the government huge windfall profits on its dollar holdings; authorities appear to have injected some of those profits into insolvent banks to shore them up, he said.

But while official data for the last few months has not yet been released, Emadi said he believed the economy was already in a recession that could deepen in coming months.

GEOPOLITICS

The International Monetary Fund predicted this week that the economy would shrink 1.5 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2019, before recovering slowly.

That would make the slump less deep than the recession of 2012, when the economy shrank over 7 percent, and not nearly as damaging as the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988, when it shrank by about a quarter.

The IMF also forecast the average inflation rate would jump to a peak above 34 percent next year, briefly returning to its level in 2013.

How much the current recession resembles past periods of economic pain for Iran will depend on the extent to which Washington can use the sanctions to push other countries into cutting oil and non-oil trade with the Islamic Republic.

US officials have said the sanctions will be tougher than the steps in 2012-2015. They aim to reduce Iranian oil exports more sharply, and to disrupt exports to Iran from trading hubs such as Dubai more aggressively.

"I think the return of the sanctions has had a devastating effect on their economy and I think it's going to get worse," Trump's national security adviser John Bolton told Reuters in late August.

But Emadi said that if European nations succeeded in creating a special payments system permitting trade with Iran to continue, and if Tehran cracked down on endemic corruption, the economy might start recovering gradually a year from now.

In the meantime, many Iranians may continue to struggle with surging prices and an unstable currency.

Peyman Mohammadian, 28, an unemployed university graduate in the western city of Andimeshk, said he had tried to protect 5 billion rials in savings by converting them into dollars last month at a rate of 183,000.

Since then, the rial has partially rebounded as authorities have sold dollars to support it and threatened currency speculators with arrest. Mohammadian said this left him in a quandary.

“On one hand, I want the dollar to rise so I don't lose my money. But on the other hand, I want it to drop below 100,000 -- otherwise inflation will be so high that I won't be able to get married for 10 years.”

 

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US to reveal ‘Deal of the Century’ to Israel next week

US to reveal ‘Deal of the Century’ to Israel next week

Israeli public radio said on Friday that the US administration would reveal the details of its “Deal of the Century” to Israel next week.

US President Donald Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, Jason Greenblatt, is scheduled to travel to the region to meet with Israeli officials and reveal the details of the US plan, Quds Press reported.

The so-called ‘Deal of the Century’ is claimed by Trump’s Administration to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but has been seen as a way to push the Palestinians to make concessions. The relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem was thought to be just one part of the plan.

The Palestinian Authority (PA), along with all Palestinian factions, have voiced their rejection to the Deal. They condemned the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem and President Trump’s announcement that the city would act as the united capital of Israel.

The Deal is thought to aim to set up a regional alliance, including Israel and the Arab states, to fight those countries which reject US and Israeli policies in the Middle East, Quds Press said.

 

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https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/10/30/is-america-finished/

 

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Iran president warns of 'war situation' as sanctions resume

Iran president warns of 'war situation' as sanctions resume

TEHRAN, Iran — The U.S. re-imposed all sanctions Monday on Iran that once were lifted under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, grinding further down on the Islamic Republic’s already-ailing economy in what President Hassan Rouhani described as a “war situation” now facing Tehran.

Iran ran televised air defense drills showing soldiers cheering the downing of a drone, but otherwise held back from any military response over U.S. efforts to curtail what Washington calls its “malign activities” across the Middle East. While previously warning it could ramp up its nuclear program, Iran still honors the atomic accord now limiting its enrichment of uranium, according to the United Nations.

As Iranian officials struck a martial tone, the strain could be felt on the streets of Tehran. It lurked in shops emptied by the country’s rapidly depreciating currency. It could be felt in the lines at currency exchange shops. And it could be heard in the stress of the voices of people struggling to buy medicine.

“When the dollar rate went up, prices for medicine went up by 80 percent,” said a man who identified himself only as Amidi, who suffers from mental illness and has a son with cancer. “I can’t buy my own medicine anymore. I haven’t taken my medicine for two months because I can’t afford it.”

The U.S. Treasury Department imposed penalties on more than 700 Iranian and Iranian-linked individuals, entities, aircraft and vessels in the new sanctions. Among those are 50 Iranian banks and subsidiaries, more than 200 people and ships, Iran’s state-run airline Iran Air and more than 65 of its planes.

The new sanctions particularly hurt Iran’s vital oil industry, which provides a crucial source of hard currency. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told journalists in Washington the sanctions already had cost Iran the sale of more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day.

“Our objective is to starve the Iranian regime of the revenue it uses to fund violent-and-destabilizing activities throughout the Middle East and, indeed, around the world,” Pompeo said. “The Iranian regime has a choice: It can either do a 180-degree turn from its outlawed course of action and act like a normal country, or it can see its economy crumble.”

The administration of President Donald Trump, who campaigned on a promise of tearing up the nuclear deal, insists it does not seek “regime change” in Iran through the sanctions. It says It wants Iran to radically change its policies, including its support for regional militant groups and its development of long-range ballistic missiles.

However, Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani and national security adviser John Bolton both have given speeches advocating overthrowing Iran’s theocratic government.

Analysts feared in the run-up to the sanctions that global oil prices could spike on tight supply and increasing demand. However, the Trump administration allowed some of its allies — Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey — as well as rival China to continue to purchase Iranian oil as long as they work to reduce imports to zero. That caused prices of benchmark Brent crude to dip down from more than $80 per barrel in recent days. It traded up more than $73 per barrel Monday after the sanctions took effect.

“We have the toughest sanctions ever imposed but on oil, we want to go a little bit slower because I don’t want to drive the oil prices in the world,” Trump said on Thursday. “I could get the Iran oil down to zero immediately, but it would cause a shock to the market.”

Rouhani, whose signature achievement was the nuclear deal, promised that Iran would still be able to sell its oil on the international market. Its national oil company has started selling crude oil to private companies who then can sell to anonymous buyers abroad as a means to get around the sanctions.

“We are in an economic war situation. We are standing up to a bullying enemy,” Rouhani told government officials in televised remarks, invoking Iran’s ruinous 1980s war with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. “Yesterday, Saddam was in front us; today Trump is front of us. There is no difference. We must resist and win.”

Iranian state television broadcast video of air-defense systems and anti-aircraft batteries in two-day military maneuvers underway across a vast stretch of the country’s north. It included surface-to-air missiles shooting down a drone.

Iran is already in the grip of an economic crisis. Its national currency, the rial, now trades at 150,000 to one U.S. dollar; a year ago, it was about 40,500 to $1. The economic chaos sparked mass anti-government protests at the end of last year, resulting in nearly 5,000 reported arrests and the killing of at least 25 people. Sporadic demonstrations still continue.

Gholamali Khoshroo, Iran’s U.N. ambassador, accused the U.S. of “brazenly and boldly” violating a U.N. Security Council resolution that unanimously endorsed the nuclear deal by re-imposing sanctions, and he called for “a collective response by the international community.”

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China regretted the U.S. decision, adding the accord “should be comprehensively and effectively implemented” despite the fact that the U.S. pulled out of it in May.

European nations still a part of the nuclear deal have sought to offer protection for its firms to continue trading with Iran. However, many international firms already have backed out of the country, fearful of facing American sanctions.

That fear also has kept shoppers out of the stores in Tehran.

“Check the shops here one by one. There are no customers,” said Hossein Ahmadi, who sells purses. “People have kept their money for rainy days out of fear of sanctions.”

Meanwhile, there are fears of other threats. Iran’s Telecommunication Minister Mohammad Javad Azeri Jahromi and his deputy, Hamid Fatahi, both tweeted about a cyberattack targeting the country’s communications infrastructure, without elaborating. They blamed Israel for the attack and both referenced Stuxnet, which destroyed thousands of centrifuges involved in Iran’s contested nuclear program in 2011. Stuxnet is widely believed to be an American and Israeli creation, though neither country has acknowledged being behind the attack.

Israel’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the Iranian claim. Last week, Gen. Gholam Reza Jalali, the head of country’s military unit in charge of combating sabotage, said Rouhani’s cellphone was tapped recently.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longtime foe of Iran, lauded the sanctions as “historic,” saying they will “strangle” what he described as Iranian state-sponsored terrorism. Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman tweeted that the U.S. decision to restore sanctions “is the sea change the Middle East has been waiting for.”

Macron urges 'European army' to defend against Russia, US

Macron urges 'European army' to defend against Russia, US

French President Emmanuel Macron called Tuesday for a "real European army" to allow the bloc to defend itself against Russia and even the United States, a hugely sensitive idea amongst EU nations which jealously guard their defense.

Macron, who has pushed for a joint European Union military force since his arrival in power, said Europe needed to be less dependent on American might, not least after US President Donald Trump announced he was pulling out of a Cold War-era nuclear treaty.

"We have to protect ourselves with respect to China, Russia and even the United States," Macron told Europe 1 in his first radio interview since becoming president in May 2017.

"We will not protect Europeans unless we decide to have a true European army."

Macron has spearheaded the creation of a nine-country European force, independent from NATO, that could rapidly mount a joint military operation, evacuate civilians from a war zone, or provide aid after a natural disaster.

The nine countries' defense ministers are set to meet for the first time on Wednesday in Paris to start thrashing out details of how the force will operate.

Finland is set to become the tenth country involved in the project, according to a source close to the talks.

The wider EU is due to vastly expand its defense budget starting in 2021, allocating some 13 billion euros ($15 billion) over seven years to research and develop new equipment.

Under an initiative known as PESCO, 25 EU countries have also pledged to better coordinate their defense spending and potentially their operations.

But talk of an "EU army", an idea floated by European federalists for years, remains a deeply touchy subject amongst member states anxious to defend their sovereignty.

A French source said Macron was speaking about more closely coordinated defense rather than a truly supranational military spanning the continent.

The president "used the strong image of a 'European army' as a reminder" of the need for closer defense ties, the source said.

European Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas said that the EU backed "a more meaningful and assertive defense identity" but that this cooperation should start with joint research and procurement.

"I don't think this defence identity will start with an EU army," he said.

"We have to start with the rest and we'll see that at some point in time."

Bruno Alomar, a professor at the French War School which trains top military officers, said Macron's vision of a tight-knit European defense force was a long way off.

"The idea of creating a common strategic culture is not a bad one," he told AFP.

"But there's a massive gap between the European defence that Emmanuel Macron dreams about and the reality of very powerful disagreements between European partners."

- Russian meddling fears -
Macron, who is set to host dozens of world leaders on Sunday for commemorations marking 100 years since the end of World War I, said the 70 years of peace enjoyed in Europe could not be taken for granted.

"For millennia, it has never lasted so long," he said in the interview, recorded Monday night in Verdun, northeast France, as part of a weeklong tour of former battlefields.

Faced with "a Russia which is at our borders and has shown that it can be a threat", Macron argued: "We need a Europe which defends itself better alone, without just depending on the United States."

In another apparent reference to Russia, he insisted that "intrusion attempts in cyberspace and multiple interventions in our democracies" required a united response.

The centrist French leader has been waging a vocal war on nationalism in recent days as he prepares to host leaders including Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ahead of European Parliament elections next May -- billed by many observers as a battle between Macron-style pro-Europeans and righ twing populists -- he said politicians must respond to voters' fear and anger.

Europe "has probably become too ultra-liberal", he said, "which doesn't allow the middle classes to live well".

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen -- one of the targets of Macron's anti-nationalist tirades -- meanwhile accused him of seeking to turn Europe into an empire.

"And it was empires that were at the origin of World War I, not nations," she told Radio Classique.

 

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Report: Netanyahu-Putin meeting in Paris canceled amid tensions

Report: Netanyahu-Putin meeting in Paris canceled amid tensions

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Paris next week has been canceled, KAN news reported on Tuesday night.

In the absence of the meeting it is possible that Netanyahu will cancel his trip to attend the Paris Peace Forum, hosted by France to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I. Reportedly France has frowned on sidebar meetings, but not new date has been set for the face-to-face talk, which had been designed to show that relations were still strong between Moscow and Jerusalem.

Last week the Kremlin said that Putin's only bilateral meeting was with US President Donald Trump, but that Netanyahu and the Russian leader may have a brief conversation. An official in Netanyahu's office said that no meeting had been scheduled.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signaling that tensions remain between the two countries, when he said earlier this week that Israel is inflaming the region with its military actions particularly in Syria.

Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman have insisted that relations with Moscow are on track.

But Lavrov indicated otherwise in an interview he gave to the Spanish newspaper El Pais. Russia’s Embassy in Israel retweeted his words, stating: “Military operations can’t resolve Israeli security concerns but will only help increase regional tensions.”

The paper asked Lavrov about the deconfliction agreement between the two countries that regulates the movement of both militaries in Syria, to ensure that they do not accidentally endanger the other.

But Russia has changed that Israel on September 17th failed to notify Moscow of its aerial movements in Syria, It has alleging that Israeli jets hid behind a Russian reconnaissance plane, which was then shot down by a Syrian anti-aircraft missile, causing the death of 17 crew members.

Israel has insisted that it notified Moscow of its movements and has blamed Syria for the downed plane.

Lavrov told El Pais that Israel had not always lived up to its obligations under the deconfliction agreement, even prior to the September 17th incident. He referred also to an Israeli bombing raid in Palmyra in March.

“We warned them that this attitude could lead to tragic consequences; these signals were conveyed through all channels and at the top level. Simultaneously we stressed that the use of force was unable to resolve Israeli security concerns and could only foment regional tensions,” Lavrov said.

Russia responded to the downing of the plane by supplying Syria with an advanced anti-missile aircraft system known as the S-300.

“After the September 17 incident, we could not leave everything as is. Russia’s response was reserved but resolute,” Lavrov said.

Israel has said that the anti-aircraft missile system has not deterred it from conducting miltary strikes in Syria and that there are no restrictions its ability to conduct aerial strikes in Syria against Iranian backed targets.

An article on the Lebanese Al-Manar TV web site, however, stated that Israel has not conducted aerial strikes in Syria since the S-300 system was put in place.

Israel, Greece drill air forces as Syria builds up arms

Israel, Greece drill air forces as Syria builds up arms

Following the delivery of advanced Russian air defense systems to Syria, the Israeli Air Force held joint drills with the Hellenic Air Force in Greece over the last 12 days, as part of the growing defense cooperation between the two countries.


The IAF reportedly brought 11 F-16 fighter jets to the drill as well as one of its airborne early warning and control surveillance aircraft known as the Nachshon, according to Kathimerini, a Greek news site.

The purpose of the drills was to improve combat interoperability between the two air forces. The air forces practiced dogfights, ground bombing runs as well as flying in environments threatened by advanced surface-to-air missile systems.

Israel is particularly concerned by the recent delivery of the S-300 surface-to-air missile defense system to Syria. The advanced S-300 is a major upgrade to the Syrian air defenses and could pose a threat to Israeli jets on missions as the long-range missile defense system can track objects, such as aircraft and ballistic missiles over a range of 300 kilometers.

According to foreign reports, Israeli pilots have already trained to defeat the system, training in Greece and Cyprus where the system has been in operation since the late 1990s.

Senkaku Islands dispute: US and Japan draw up plans to defend disputed islands from China

US prepares to fight China

THE Senkaku Islands are tiny rocky spurs, part of a scattering of islands between the northern tip of Taiwan and the Japanese home islands. They are rapidly turning into a flashpoint for war.

Beijing claims the islands as part of its historical inheritance — as it does neighbouring Taiwan, despite failing to seize the protectorate during the Chinese Civil War.

Taiwan, however, was a Japanese protectorate before World War II.

It’s a messy historical scenario, thought resolved through United Nations conventions and treaties established after the conflict.

But ongoing aggressive incursions by Chinese fishing boats — organised as a state militia — and a freshly militarised coast guard has seen tensions in the East China Sea flare.

Now, Japan and the United States are drawing up battle plans to enable their forces to fight together against any Chinese incursion. And their forces are engaged in their biggest combined war games, practising to do just that.

The biggest war games ever conducted around Japan are underway, demonstrating the interoperability of Japanese Self Defence Forces with those of the US and Canada. The nuclear powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan is the centrepiece of the Keen Sword exercise which has mobilised more than 57,000 soldiers, sailors and air force personnel.

POWER IMBALANCE

The Japan Times reports government sources as saying discussions are well underway to establish a joint response to any “emergency” on or around the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, which China calls Diaoyu.

“The plan being drawn up assumes such emergencies as armed Chinese fishermen landing on the islands, and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces needing to be mobilised after the situation exceeds the capacity of the police to respond,” itreports.

It’s a rapidly looming scenario.


China’s navy is undergoing an explosive expansion and modernisation program. Beijing has all but consolidated its arbitrary claims over the South China Sea through its aggressive artificial island fortress building campaign. It’s navy and air force are venturing ever deeper into the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

So, the 2015 Bilateral Planning Mechanism agreement between the United States and Japan is upping the ante. It was established to “conduct bilateral operations to counter ground attacks against Japan by ground, air, maritime, or amphibious forces”.

The operational procedures for defending the Senkaku Islands will be completed by March.

The United States is already bound by treaty to defend Japan in the event of an attack. And US President Trump has recently said this treaty includes Japan’s claims to the Senkaku Islands — despite previous US government assertions it wanted no part in the East China Sea sovereignty dispute.

But, now, the militaries of the two allied states are discussing how to secure the contested waterway by force of arms.

“Given that military organisations always need to assume the worst possible situation, it is natural for the two countries to work on this kind of plan against China,” former Japanese naval attache at the Japanese Embassy in Beijing Bonji Ohara told the Japan Times.

ON A KNIFE-EDGE

The full extent of Beijing’s assertiveness has been revealed in freshly released footage and accounts of a near-collision between US and Chinese destroyers in the South China Sea.

The South China Morning Post reports a Chinese warship involved in a close encounter had warned the US Navy vessel wouls “suffer consequences” if it did not divert out of the contested waterway.

The UN convention of the sea does not recognise soverignty being established through artificial islands. And and an international tribunal has rejected as groundless Beijing’s claims to have historical ownership of the entire South China Sea.

“To my knowledge, this is the first time we’ve had a direct threat to an American warship with that kind of language,” Chatham House international affairs analyst Bill Hayton told the Hong-Kong based news service.

“The Chinese Luyang destroyer issued the stern verbal message to the USS Decatur before sailing within 45 yards of the vessel in the September 30 incident,” the Post reports.

It says it has obtained a timeline of the incident from Britain’s Ministry of Defence.

“You are on dangerous course ... If you don’t change course your will suffer consequences,” a Chinese officer warned.

“This, I think, is the first time we’ve had the idea of ‘suffering consequences’. So that does seem to be an increased level of intimidation,” Mr Hayton says.

On the freshly released footage, a US sailor is heard saying the Chinese warship was “trying to push us out of the way”.

The US warship’s captain rejected the grounds for the challenge.

“We are conducting innocent passage,” the USS Decatur responded, shortly before the Chinese warship cut across its bows - forcing the US ship to dodge a collision.

Beijing stated the destroyer Luyang “took quick action and made checks against the US vessel in accordance with the law, and warned it to leave the waters”.

The Post reports professor Ni Lexiong of the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law as saying “The US keeps testing our bottom line by sailing within 12 nautical miles ... So by sailing close to their ship we show that we are ready.”

KEEN SWORD

“Growing foreign interest in Asian security, including North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, coincides with greater Japanese willingness to back up its regional diplomacy with a show of military muscle,” the Japan Times writes.

Simulated combat is raging around the Japanese Home Islands. Jets are jostling for position in simulated air combat. Submarines are playing cat-and-mouse in the deep. Troops and tanks are rushing for shore in practice amphibious landings. Missile defences are being put through drill after drill.

Australia is participating as an observer.


“We are here to stabilise, and preserve our capability should it be needed. Exercises like Keen Sword are exactly the kind of thing we need to do,”

Rear Admiral Karl Thomas told a media briefing aboard the USS Ronald Reagan with its 90 F-18 Super Hornet strike fighters and 5000 sailors.

“The US-Japan alliance is essential for stability in this region and the wider Indo Pacific,” Japanese Rear Admiral Hiroshi Egawa added.

The USS Reagan part of a force of warships and submarines simulating warfare in the East China Sea. It’s a common sight in the region. It’s the US Navy’s only foreign-based nuclear aircraft carrier, operating with its supporting fleet out of Yokosuka near Tokyo.

The exercise is scheduled to end on Thursday.

Keen Sword “remains an expression of the commitment of like-minded allies and partners. To really see what we can do in terms of demonstrating advanced capabilities together to ensure peace and stability in the Indo Pacific,” the Chief of US Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson told a news briefing.

He added the US would continue its freedom of navigation operations in the South and East China Seas to highlight its opposition to “illegitimate maritime claims”.

 

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[LittleLambofJesus]

Amos 4:11
“I overthrew some of you,
As God overthrew Sodom and Gomorrah,
And you were like a firebrand plucked from the burning;
Yet you have not returned to Me,” Says the LORD.

Revelation 11:8
And their dead bodies will lie in the street of the great City
which spiritually is called Sodom and Egypt, where also our[fn] Lord was crucified.

Over 20,000 march in Jerusalem Pride Parade under heavy security

Jerusalem’s gay pride parade kicked off Thursday afternoon with some 20,000 Israelis flooding the streets of the capital, under heavy police protection. Some reports put the number of marchers as high as 35,000, which would make it the largest ever;.....................


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