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Early voting is affecting the polls

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by paul1149, Oct 26, 2012.

  1. paul1149

    paul1149 that your faith might rest in the power of God Supporter

    United States
    There's a new factor that's skewing the polls - early voting. People who say they have already voted are counted in 'likely voter" polls. That would seem to make sense, but there is a human dynamic whereby some people answer polls according to what they think others want to hear. Some people say they are likely do vote but do not, and now some people say they already have but have not.

    Now couple that dynamic with the Dems' big push for early voting (while the GOP continues to stress traditional election day voting). You can see that a new misleading dynamic has been introduced. Some Dems are going to say they already have voted, because they think that's what's expected of them, but they haven't, and maybe will not.

    This is particularly true in Ohio, a state which has a lot of people scratching their heads. Romney's metrics are increasing, and dramatically so among independents, and yet Obama maintains his lead in the polls. Some have said that Ohio is defying gravity.

    But if the above dynamic is the cause, and if there really is an enthusiasm gap that favors Romney, then the artificial voted early numbers are going to fade to gray on election day.

    The problem is that this dynamic is so new that no one, at least among public pollsters, knows how to deal with it yet. They have to find questions that qualify the answers of those who claim to have already voted.

    For more on this, see Josh Jordan's very insightful NRO article.
  2. DaisyDay

    DaisyDay blind squirrel

  3. drjean

    drjean Senior Veteran Supporter CF Senior Ambassador Angels Team

    I've decided to vote. And I've decided to vote early. If some poll taker asks me, I'm going to say I voted for the main candidate that I don't want to win... that way when others who haven't voted yet hear that their guy is behind, they'll go out and vote rather than think it's a shoe in. [​IMG]
  4. AvilaSurfer

    AvilaSurfer Semi-Retired Supporter

    United States
    People don't tell the truth to pollsters? Shocking.
  5. Jeffwhosoever

    Jeffwhosoever Fisherman and Servant Staff Member Red Team - Moderator Supporter

    United States
  6. doubtingmerle

    doubtingmerle I'll think about it. Supporter