During 'cease fire' Russia bombs maternity hospital

[disciple Clint]

...however, the chances have gone up considerably since Putin has demonstrated he has no qualms about pulverizing cities he considers to be Russian....

are you familiar with the term Bluffing? Putin knows what would happen to him and Russia if he did anything like that, I am betting we have several subs with weapon assignments centered on Putin.

 

[Goonie]

are you familiar with the term Bluffing? Putin knows what would happen to him and Russia if he did anything like that, I am betting we have several subs with weapon assignments centered on Putin.

Really? Tell me how would nato react to a nuke on Kiev? Putin has already demonstrated through his use of chemical weapons in Syria and Salisbury England he is a risk taker.

 

[disciple Clint]

Really? Tell me how would nato react to a nuke on Kiev? Putin has already demonstrated through his use of chemical weapons in Syria and Salisbury England he is a risk taker.

well all I can point to is the fact that mutual assured destruction kept the cold war in check for years and years.

 

[Aldebaran]

well all I can point to is the fact that mutual assured destruction kept the cold war in check for years and years.

We can't always count on history being a guide for what is coming. In the days leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainians were going about their business and doing what they normally did. When reporters asked them about it, the people said that Russia makes threats and bluffs all the time and they're just used to it now. This is while over 100,000 Russian troops were amassed along the border.
Now, less than a month since then, things look very different in Ukraine, and people are no longer just going about their business. It took only a few weeks for things to go from normal to hellish.

 

[wing2000]

are you familiar with the term Bluffing? Putin knows what would happen to him and Russia if he did anything like that, I am betting we have several subs with weapon assignments centered on Putin.

While I suspect Putin still values self preservation, I am not 100% certain...
I do think he will continue to push the boundaries...with CW...and maybe a tactical nuc if his military continues perform miserably.

 

[Aldebaran]

While I suspect Putin still values self preservation, I am not 100% certain...
I do think he will continue to push the boundaries...with CW...and maybe a tactical nuc if his military continues perform miserably.

I believe so as well. He doesn't appear to be the kind of person who surrenders. The fact that he has loads of money and ways of escaping whatever he might cause the rest of his country to endure lets him do pretty much whatever he wants, without the immediate concern of dealing with repercussions.

 

[disciple Clint]

While I suspect Putin still values self preservation, I am not 100% certain...
I do think he will continue to push the boundaries...with CW...and maybe a tactical nuc if his military continues perform miserably.

I agree except for the nuc. one nuc and he can kiss posterior good bye. the counter strike may be conventional but it will be very effective as a deterrent to any future actions from Mr. Putin's successors.

 

[cow451]

I agree except for the nuc. one nuc and he can kiss posterior good bye. the counter strike may be conventional but it will be very effective as a deterrent to any future actions from Mr. Putin's successors.

I listened to an NPR interview today with someone that had been involved with war-gaming these scenarios during the Obama administrations. His conclusion was that every gamed outcome was very bad.

 

[BigDaddy4]

I listened to an NPR interview today with someone that had been involved with war-gaming these scenarios during the Obama administrations. His conclusion was that every gamed outcome was very bad.

Did they play tic-tac-toe with Joshua to reach that conclusion?

 

[cow451]

Did they play tic-tac-toe with Joshua to reach that conclusion?

“They” would be an interviewer. When I have time I’ll try to get the author’s name.
And who is Joshua in this context?

 

[BigDaddy4]

“They” would be an interviewer. When I have time I’ll try to get the author’s name.
And who is Joshua in this context?

Sorry, I should have used a . "Joshua" is the WOPR computer name from the movie "War Games". Joshua reached a similar conclusion playing tic-tac-toe, then applied it to the Global Thermolnuclear War game it was playing.

"The only winning move is to not play."

 

[Halbhh]

If Putin uses chemical weapons, it's a clear war crime. Since 1925.

If he uses nuclear, it will make him go down in history as an exceptionally evil leader, and even China and India would condemn likely.

He'd have an ongoing international arrest warrant.

 

[Aldebaran]

If Putin uses chemical weapons, it's a clear war crime. Since 1925.

If he uses nuclear, it will make him go down in history as an exceptionally evil leader, and even China and India would condemn likely.

He'd have an ongoing international arrest warrant.

The label of "war crime" being applied to using chemical weapons doesn't seem to mean a thing anymore. I've heard that term used many times already, but it doesn't accomplish anything other than to say, "Putin was wrong for doing that". When cluster bombs were seen being used by the Russians, it was said to be a war crime. When Russian forces fire on apartment buildings and hospitals, it's called a war crime. But what has it accomplished to call it that? So if he uses chemical or nuclear weapons, it will be called a war crime as well, but the only thing that will result from it is the same thing that has resulted from them using cluster bombs and targeting civilians.

 

[Halbhh]

The label of "war crime" being applied to using chemical weapons doesn't seem to mean a thing anymore. I've heard that term used many times already, but it doesn't accomplish anything other than to say, "Putin was wrong for doing that". When cluster bombs were seen being used by the Russians, it was said to be a war crime. When Russian forces fire on apartment buildings and hospitals, it's called a war crime. But what has it accomplished to call it that? So if he uses chemical or nuclear weapons, it will be called a war crime as well, but the only thing that will result from it is the same thing that has resulted from them using cluster bombs and targeting civilians.

Good points.

First, Assad should be held to account for the chemical weapons use in Syria.
And may be:
Criminal Inquiries Loom Over al-Assad’s Use of Chemical Arms in Syria (Published 2021)
"If nothing else, the criminal inquiries in France and Germany could vastly complicate the future for Mr. al-Assad, who has emerged largely victorious in the Syrian war, but with a pariah status that has blocked the international aid necessary to rebuild his country.

Getting such aid could become even more difficult if Mr. al-Assad and his upper echelons are defendants in prosecutions for war crimes in European courts, even if they consider such proceedings illegitimate. "

It moves slowly, but you know the old saying: 'the wheels of justice grind slowly' ('but exceedingly fine') (or 'inexorably' is another wording I've heard, perhaps another saying).

Regarding Russia, it signed onto the Geneva Protocol making use of chemical weapons illegal. So, I think it would be a strong basis for a prosecution of some kind, even if at first in early years only in the meaningful court of public opinion (of the world as a whole). People will see and and remember such evil actions, long before any trial. Putin would no longer be welcome in any Western nation except a client state of little matter. He'd be considered a war criminal, and that's in the end a bigger punishment than prison.

 

[Aldebaran]

Good points.

First, Assad should be held to account for the chemical weapons use in Syria.
And may be:
Criminal Inquiries Loom Over al-Assad’s Use of Chemical Arms in Syria (Published 2021)
"If nothing else, the criminal inquiries in France and Germany could vastly complicate the future for Mr. al-Assad, who has emerged largely victorious in the Syrian war, but with a pariah status that has blocked the international aid necessary to rebuild his country.

Getting such aid could become even more difficult if Mr. al-Assad and his upper echelons are defendants in prosecutions for war crimes in European courts, even if they consider such proceedings illegitimate. "

It moves slowly, but you know the old saying: 'the wheels of justice grind slowly' ('but exceedingly fine') (or 'inexorably' is another wording I've heard, perhaps another saying).

Regarding Russia, it signed onto the Geneva Protocol making use of chemical weapons illegal. So, I think it would be a strong basis for a prosecution of some kind, even if at first in early years only in the meaningful court of public opinion (of the world as a whole). People will see and and remember such evil actions, long before any trial. Putin would no longer be welcome in any Western nation except a client state of little matter. He'd be considered a war criminal, and that's in the end a bigger punishment than prison.

The real problem is that--war criminal or not--committing war crimes and being labeled as a war criminal isn't preventing him from doing anything.

 

[Halbhh]

The real problem is that--war criminal or not--committing war crimes and being labeled as a war criminal isn't preventing him from doing anything.

Reminds some of Slobodan Milosevic.

Remember? It took a while to arrest him. A long while. He stayed in power a long time before that too.

I just noticed this very interesting detail though before the war crimes done in the former Yugoslavia:

"Upon the Yugoslav republic of Macedonia seceding in 1991, the Yugoslav government declared Macedonia an "artificial nation" "
....
then:

"Milošević denounced the declaration of independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina from Yugoslavia in 1992...
Slobodan Milošević - Wikipedia

Wow! Sounds familiar right?

What did Putin just say recently about Ukraine....

And what is Putin doing now?
Besieging cities....

Siege of Sarajevo - Wikipedia

 

[Aldebaran]

Reminds some of Slobodan Milosevic.

Remember? It took a while to arrest him. A long while. He stayed in power a long time before that too.

I just noticed this very interesting detail though before the war crimes done in the former Yugoslavia:

"Upon the Yugoslav republic of Macedonia seceding in 1991, the Yugoslav government declared Macedonia an "artificial nation" "
....
then:

"Milošević denounced the declaration of independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina from Yugoslavia in 1992...
Slobodan Milošević - Wikipedia

Wow! Sounds familiar right?

What did Putin just say recently about Ukraine....

And what is Putin doing now?
Besieging cities....

Siege of Sarajevo - Wikipedia

That's how tyrants justify using power to take control of those they target. They refer to them as artificial, illegitimate, Nazi, terrorists, etc. and then they go after them using that label as justification. But it can be done on a national basis, or even domestically.

 

[disciple Clint]

I listened to an NPR interview today with someone that had been involved with war-gaming these scenarios during the Obama administrations. His conclusion was that every gamed outcome was very bad.

That is true because in every scenario we were required to us tactical nuks to stop the advance, but based on what we are seeing today, we may have overestimated the effectiveness of the Russian military.

 

[Trogdor the Burninator]

Did they play tic-tac-toe with Joshua to reach that conclusion?

 

[Nithavela]

That is true because in every scenario we were required to us tactical nuks to stop the advance, but based on what we are seeing today, we may have overestimated the effectiveness of the Russian military.

Understatement of the century...