Drake Equation, Abiogenesis and Aliens

[mindlight]

The Drake Equation is a probabilistic argument used to estimate the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.

It is founded on the premise that because life spontaneously developed here on earth it must also have done so elsewhere in the universe. Indeed the only real evidence for the equation has been that life exists on this planet. Naturalistically it is assumed that it developed from inorganic origins. But there is no actual demonstrable experiment or proof by which this can be verified.

On the basis of this rather shaky foundation comes the view that aliens and alien civilizations must exist. Despite the best efforts of SETI and our solar system explorations no evidence for the existence of aliens actually exists.

So simple question:
Given the shaky foundations and dubious assumptions made here, why do so many scientists believe in the existence of aliens and even extraterrestrial origin accounts for life? Why is so much money invested in investigating this possibility e.g. in Space programs? Why is the idea that aliens exist so deeply entrenched in the modern mind?

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Because it's a big universe, and even if the probability that other life is out there is extremely unlikely, it's never a complete 0.

 

[SelfSim]

On the basis of this rather shaky foundation comes the view that aliens and alien civilizations must exist.

Science doesn't make such bold assertions .. Science has developed hypotheses which make predictions about the likelihood of life existing elsewhere. Those predictions aren't there to colour our expectations, but rather, to direct the next thing that science would benefit from, via objective investigations.

So simple question:
Given the shaky foundations and dubious assumptions made here, why do so many scientists believe in the existence of aliens and even extraterrestrial origin accounts for life?

Just ignore their beliefs and track their progress in testing science's predictions, is my recommendation there.

Why is so much money invested in investigating this possibility e.g. in Space programs? Why is the idea that aliens exist so deeply entrenched in the modern mind?

Well .. I'll admit that one's also got me baffled, too.

 

[mindlight]

Because it's a big universe, and even if the probability that other life is out there is extremely unlikely, it's never a complete 0.

But if the process by which that probability is calculated never actually happens how do you know that probability is not zero?

 

[mindlight]

Science doesn't make such bold assertions .. Science has developed hypotheses which make predictions about the likelihood of life existing elsewhere. Those predictions aren't there to colour our expectations, but rather, to direct the next thing that science would benefit from, via objective investigations.

Science makes a great many bold assertions including the Big Bang, Macro Evolution, and Abiogenesis none of which can be demonstrated using the scientific method. So is the existence of aliens just another one of these theories based on consistent guesses designed to color our expectations to the extent of exclusion of all other possibilities

Just ignore their beliefs and track their progress in testing science's predictions, is my recommendation there.

Well, the empirical evidence can be listed thus far:

1) A proof for the chemical evolution of life from inorganics actually happening: none can be demonstrated
2) SETI: We have heard nothing
3) Buz Aldrin eyewitness testimony from the moon: "Magnificent desolation"
4) Various robotic surveyors: No conclusive proof of ET found.

So I guess any model that predicts the existence of aliens is as authoritative is asking for blind faith.

Well .. I'll admit that one's also got me baffled, too.

My own opinion is that this is just marketing for robot research. The existence of aliens is a motivating factor to pay for boring space science which otherwise would never get finance. If we had human space flight programs the public would be more engaged with the research and the budget would be higher.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

But if the process by which that probability is calculated never actually happens how do you know that probability is not zero?

Because there is no probability set at exactly zero.

 

[Tolworth John]

Why is the idea that aliens exist so deeply entrenched in the modern mind?

G k Chesterton once wrote, ' Take away the belief in God and you replace it with a belief in anything.'

People will belief in anything except a God who cares for them.

 

[mindlight]

Because there is no probability set at exactly zero.

That is a methodological nicety. There is zero probability that I will grow to be 450 feet high. There is zero probability that I will weigh 65 tonnes on the day I retire.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

That is a methodical nicety. There is zero probability that I will grow to be 450 feet high. There is zero probability that I will weigh 65 tonnes on the day I retire.

How do you know though? Like the probably of you spontaneously combusting are incredibly low, but that's not a zero probablity.

Until all possibilities are eliminated and until you have searched EVERY single section and sector of the universe and have found no evidence of alien life, then the probability is not zero.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

G k Chesterton once wrote, ' Take away the belief in God and you replace it with a belief in anything.'

People will belief in anything except a God who cares for them.

I don't really think that's what he had in mind when he said that.

I think it really has more to do with the general human sense of wonder that something could exist out there that we don't know about.

 

[mindlight]

How do you know though? Like the probably of you spontaneously combusting are incredibly low, but that's not a zero probablity.

Until all possibilities are eliminated and until you have searched EVERY single section and sector of the universe and have found no evidence of alien life, then the probability is not zero.

Regarding aliens, we do not know either way 100%. But the overwhelming empirical proof tends towards the conclusion that for all practical purposes we should proceed on the assumption that alien life does not exist. That said we have the following scientific programs which consume millions of dollars of research grants. So why are people proceeding with research that has no foundation in ANY actual empirical evidence? I think it is clear that this is a distortion in the scientific community and an example of some extremely unscientific behavior by scientists:

SETI - Maybe billions spent
NASA Astrobiology - $65m a year not including cost of additional equipment added to Mars probes etc

How big money is powering a massive hunt for alien intelligence

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Regarding aliens, we do not know either way 100%. But the overwhelming empirical proof tends towards the conclusion that for all practical purposes we should proceed on the assumption that alien life does not exist. That said we have the following scientific programs which consume millions of dollars of research grants. So why are people proceeding with research that has no foundation in ANY actual empirical evidence? I think it is clear that this is a distortion in the scientific community and an example of some extremely unscientific behavior by scientists:

SETI - Maybe billions spent
NASA Astrobiology - $65m a year not including cost of additional equipment added to Mars probes etc

How big money is powering a massive hunt for alien intelligence

Why is it a 'distortion in the scientific community and an example of extremely unscientific behaviour by scientists'?
You just said that we do not know either way 100%, so you could be wrong and there will be aliens out there, or I could be wrong and there won't be aliens out there. We won't know, unless we look.

And $65 million a year from the US budget of $6.6 trillion? Yeah... that's not a lot.

 

[Tolworth John]

I don't really think that's what he had in mind when he said that.

I think it really has more to do with the general human sense of wonder that something could exist out there that we don't know about.

Do you have the origin of this quote, can you supple the context it was written in?

While I admit to mangling the quote it is about belief in and not belief in God, rather than a sense of wonder.

Creation is wonderful, it's complexity and interdependency speaks of a loving creator rather than random undirected chance.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Do you have the origin of this quote, can you supple the context it was written in?

While I admit to mangling the quote it is about belief in and not belief in God, rather than a sense of wonder.

Creation is wonderful, it's complexity and interdependency speaks of a loving creator rather than random undirected chance.

Looking it up, the actual quote is "When men choose not to believe in God, they do not thereafter believe in nothing, they then become capable of believing in anything.”

However, I can't find the source, so I can't say what the context could have been. I don't see how it can equate to people believing that aliens exist.

 

[durangodawood]

But if the process by which that probability is calculated never actually happens how do you know that probability is not zero?

Zero is more like a certainty than a probability.

And even if someday we know life cannot have formed from a naturistic process, then maybe life still exists elsewhere due to some other process.

As for now, we're surrounded by various natural processes. Very little or no evidence for other processes... except for things like determining Academy Award winners and so on.

 

[Estrid]

The Drake Equation is a probabilistic argument used to estimate the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.

It is founded on the premise that because life spontaneously developed here on earth it must also have done so elsewhere in the universe. Indeed the only real evidence for the equation has been that life exists on this planet. Naturalistically it is assumed that it developed from inorganic origins. But there is no actual demonstrable experiment or proof by which this can be verified.

On the basis of this rather shaky foundation comes the view that aliens and alien civilizations must exist. Despite the best efforts of SETI and our solar system explorations no evidence for the existence of aliens actually exists.

So simple question:
Given the shaky foundations and dubious assumptions made here, why do so many scientists believe in the existence of aliens and even extraterrestrial origin accounts for life? Why is so much money invested in investigating this possibility e.g. in Space programs? Why is the idea that aliens exist so deeply entrenched in the modern mind?

is "so much money invested"?
The amount couldn't be .001% what is spent
on any of several utter frivolities.

Finding an alien civilization would only be
like the most exciting discovery of all time.

 

[Estrid]

Xx

 

[Estrid]

Do you have the origin of this quote, can you supple the context it was written in?

While I admit to mangling the quote it is about belief in and not belief in God, rather than a sense of wonder.

Creation is wonderful, it's complexity and interdependency speaks of a loving creator rather than random undirected chance.

"Speaks" of if that is what one chooses
to look for.
I think people misrepresent the issues
and confuse themselves with making it out
that "random undirected chance" is remotely
as accurate as it is redundant.

My personal take on the "wonder" is
that it is much diminished in every way
the less informed it is.
And ftm, if a person is in awe of
something they merely imagine.

 

[renniks]

Because it's a big universe, and even if the probability that other life is out there is extremely unlikely, it's never a complete 0.

Suppose that the same amount of effort was expended to find out if God exists, which is at least as likely as aliens.. and most people do believe that life is out there. We worship that life.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

Suppose that the same amount of effort was expended to find out if God exists, which is at least as likely as aliens.. and most people do believe that life is out there. We worship that life.

It gets a little bit harder with God because, by His nature as the supernatural, He is without evidence and thus cannot be found with science.

And who worships aliens? Oh, never mind. I remember now.