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People write about all the Trump lawn signs they’re seeing and take that as evidence that the president is more popular than the polls show. They don’t see many Biden signs. Some think all those signs means the president will win. Maybe in a landslide.
Which may well be true. Or not. The yard signs don’t necessarily signal a Trump victory. The trouble with signs is that they don’t always say what you think they say.
Two Ways of Reading Them
The sociologist George Yancey offers two ways of reading the yard signs. He explained in a Facebook post that cycling around his neighborhood he saw a lot of Trump signs and American flags. Four years he didn’t see any, until just before the election. It’s a slightly blue neighborhood in a slightly red city in a red state. (He teaches at Baylor. He may be best known for his work on “christianophobia” and racism.)
Yancey offers two possible explanations. Being a sociologist, he’s careful to point out that he’s talking about an unrepresentative sample and making educated guesses. He could be wrong.
His first explanation is that “Trump being in office has made it a little easier for people to say that they support him.” Four years ago he was a real estate developer and reality tv star. “Not,” Yancey says, “a good look.” It’s easier for people to support him in public now that he’s been president for almost four years.
If this is true, “it is possible that there is less of a hidden Trump vote than conservatives may think. That was the vote that gave Trump the important swing states and thus the presidency. This means that the polls that show Biden with the lead are more accurate than those that show that Clinton was in the lead four years ago. That would not bode well for a Trump reelection.”
The other explanation is that “the social desirability pressure is same as it was four year about but that Trump has more supporters and thus more people willing to place signs and flags in their yard.” If that is true, he says, “the prospects of a Trump reelection may be stronger than we think.”
Continued below.
Do All the Trump Lawn Signs Mean a Landslide? | The Stream
Which may well be true. Or not. The yard signs don’t necessarily signal a Trump victory. The trouble with signs is that they don’t always say what you think they say.
Two Ways of Reading Them
The sociologist George Yancey offers two ways of reading the yard signs. He explained in a Facebook post that cycling around his neighborhood he saw a lot of Trump signs and American flags. Four years he didn’t see any, until just before the election. It’s a slightly blue neighborhood in a slightly red city in a red state. (He teaches at Baylor. He may be best known for his work on “christianophobia” and racism.)
Yancey offers two possible explanations. Being a sociologist, he’s careful to point out that he’s talking about an unrepresentative sample and making educated guesses. He could be wrong.
His first explanation is that “Trump being in office has made it a little easier for people to say that they support him.” Four years ago he was a real estate developer and reality tv star. “Not,” Yancey says, “a good look.” It’s easier for people to support him in public now that he’s been president for almost four years.
If this is true, “it is possible that there is less of a hidden Trump vote than conservatives may think. That was the vote that gave Trump the important swing states and thus the presidency. This means that the polls that show Biden with the lead are more accurate than those that show that Clinton was in the lead four years ago. That would not bode well for a Trump reelection.”
The other explanation is that “the social desirability pressure is same as it was four year about but that Trump has more supporters and thus more people willing to place signs and flags in their yard.” If that is true, he says, “the prospects of a Trump reelection may be stronger than we think.”
Continued below.
Do All the Trump Lawn Signs Mean a Landslide? | The Stream