Death Toll To Go Up 65% By The End Of October

[Subduction Zone]

That's a good point. But there is something to be said for understanding the state of play while the game is still ongoing. It would help us to adjust our strategy.

Right now here's how the DEATH rates are comparing between the US and EU. Similar sized populations (300million and 400million respectively):

View attachment 281163

It's very easy to see that for similarly situated geographies (in terms of population, development, etc.) that the US is failing severely. We didn't have as high a spike but we have not "adapted" and brought our numbers down sufficiently.

As such THIS lends credence to people thinking that historians WILL judge us to be lacking in how we dealt with this.

We are losing at half-time by a HUGE margin. Playing as badly as we have been playing will NOT get us to "victory"

The news is bad, but it could be worse. The "good news" is that even though we have more new cases than ever it appears that at least some citizens are taking precautions. The death rate is much lower than when it first came out. That indicates that those at risk are taking extra precautions, and perhaps that we know how to treat this more effectively. Looking at the Worldometer's graph daily deaths are only up about 25% from the low that we had after the peak.

I am not advocating opening up or ignoring this, far from it. That merely shows that precautionary methods work and we need more people to use them. Masks should be used everywhere nationally. And the one thing that the President could have done he has still not done. He could have used the "Defense Production Act to increase supplies of personal protective equipment for health care workers treating COVID-19, which as of Thursday afternoon had killed at least 137,000 Americans and infected more than 3.5 million people here."

Pelosi says Trump is 'like a man who refuses to ask for directions' on coronavirus pandemic

 

[Subduction Zone]

Which part?

The parts of reality that make Trump look worse.

In other words pretty much all of it

 

[FireDragon76]

It would be reasonable to let the dust settle and see what history has to say. Right now everyone is a Monday morning quarterback, 20-20 vision after the fact.

I very much doubt time is going to be favorable. Legitimate academic historians critically examine the evidence from the past, they do not merely spin convenient yarns. Only the crackpot historian will be able to repristinate Trump's presidency.

 

[cow451]

(Removed)

I have a cousin once removed.

 

[disciple Clint]

That's a good point. But there is something to be said for understanding the state of play while the game is still ongoing. It would help us to adjust our strategy.

Right now here's how the DEATH rates are comparing between the US and EU. Similar sized populations (300million and 400million respectively):

View attachment 281163

It's very easy to see that for similarly situated geographies (in terms of population, development, etc.) that the US is failing severely. We didn't have as high a spike but we have not "adapted" and brought our numbers down sufficiently.

As such THIS lends credence to people thinking that historians WILL judge us to be lacking in how we dealt with this.

We are losing at half-time by a HUGE margin. Playing as badly as we have been playing will NOT get us to "victory"

And how much of this is the governments fault and how much is it a result of a culture that holds personal rights about the authority of the government. While people in other countries followed the government directives people in the US gathered in large groups without masks and failed to take other precautions.

 

[disciple Clint]

Which part?

the single greatest policy failure in the last 50 years. Try to support that statement.

 

[Skewpoint]

The news is bad, but it could be worse. The "good news" is that even though we have more new cases than ever it appears that at least some citizens are taking precautions. The death rate is much lower than when it first came out. That indicates that those at risk are taking extra precautions, and perhaps that we know how to treat this more effectively. Looking at the Worldometer's graph daily deaths are only up about 25% from the low that we had after the peak.

I am not advocating opening up or ignoring this, far from it. That merely shows that precautionary methods work and we need more people to use them. Masks should be used everywhere nationally. And the one thing that the President could have done he has still not done. He could have used the "Defense Production Act to increase supplies of personal protective equipment for health care workers treating COVID-19, which as of Thursday afternoon had killed at least 137,000 Americans and infected more than 3.5 million people here."

Pelosi says Trump is 'like a man who refuses to ask for directions' on coronavirus pandemic

You know what else would be nice? The ability to get a test if I ask for one. Right now, i can't go anywhere in any town/city near me and get tested unless i show symptoms. I could be asymptomatic and what am I suppose to do? Considering how many MONTHS it's been, that is ridiculous. Not only that, our president is COMPLAINING about too much testing! Whoever thinks this admin has handled this pandemic well is delusional and not worth anybody's time.

 

[Subduction Zone]

You know what else would be nice? The ability to get a test if I ask for one. Right now, i can't go anywhere in any town/city near me and get tested unless i show symptoms. I could be asymptomatic and what am I suppose to do? Considering how many MONTHS it's been, that is ridiculous. Not only that, our president is COMPLAINING about too much testing! Whoever thinks this admin has handled this pandemic well is delusional and not worth anybody's time.

I have said many times that this crisis gave Trump a chance to do something Presidential for once. At first I was foolishly optimistic. Surely he could not keep up this idiotic position of his when hundreds of thousands if not millions of life were at risk. Sadly I was wrong. He does have the ability as "C in C" to use the war powers act to get U.S. companies to boost the production of protective gear. The only use of Presidential power that he has used has been to pardon his pals and cronies.

I can't wait for November.

 

[Nithavela]

I have said many times that this crisis gave Trump a chance to do something Presidential for once. At first I was foolishly optimistic. Surely he could not keep up this idiotic position of his when hundreds of thousands if not millions of life were at risk. Sadly I was wrong. He does have the ability as "C in C" to use the war powers act to get U.S. companies to boost the production of protective gear. The only use of Presidential power that he has used has been to pardon his pals and cronies.

I can't wait for November.

This comment won't age well when Trump gets reelected.

 

[Broken Fence]

The forecast is by the University of Washington who used to be there president's favorite source of this info, except for those who used to tell that the pandemic would be over in 15 days.
=====
Some think that this is very good, visually stopped. For most of us a 65% increase does NOT mean stopped. Of course, this is before the winter wave, which may not happen, or be noticed, since the first wave would still be continuing.

My question is why President Trump didn't stop purposely infecting nursing homes and prisons? We think the President is the most powerful person in the country, but maybe he isn't? Maybe the President has to work in ways we don't know about?

Discharging COVID-19 Patients To Nursing Homes Called A 'Recipe For Disaster'

Medical Expert: Federal Jail Intentionally Destroying Medical Records and Hiding Extent of Coronavirus Behind Bars

 

[disciple Clint]

I have said many times that this crisis gave Trump a chance to do something Presidential for once. At first I was foolishly optimistic. Surely he could not keep up this idiotic position of his when hundreds of thousands if not millions of life were at risk. Sadly I was wrong. He does have the ability as "C in C" to use the war powers act to get U.S. companies to boost the production of protective gear. The only use of Presidential power that he has used has been to pardon his pals and cronies.

I can't wait for November.

If you do a little simple research you will find that he used his Presidential powers for far more than that.

 

[Subduction Zone]

If you do a little simple research you will find that he used his Presidential powers for far more than that.

And he pretty much screwed the pooch when he did that. I was talking about him doing something positive for once.

 

[KCfromNC]

If you do a little simple research you will find that he used his Presidential powers for far more than that.

Sure. For example he also encouraged his followers to liberate their states.

 

[istodolez]

And how much of this is the governments fault and how much is it a result of a culture that holds personal rights about the authority of the government.

This, too, is a very good question. Americans who tend to adhere to a strict set of rules in regards to their perception of "personal freedom" but who also lack sufficient education or even self-reflection to realize that they are not necessarily acting in a logical manner will tend to vote for political leadership which is either itself uneducated and less rational OR is happy to leverage an uneducated and irrational base to act against their own self-interest.

But by the same token, leadership, once elected, must act for all Americans and thereby giving support to behaviors which are irrational or show a lack of understanding of the topic.

We can easily lay blame on both sides, but in the end the role of government is to pool our resources and moderate our individual behaviors by setting a course and steering to that goal.

The American people voted to put Mr. Trump in office and his administration has access to vast amounts of data and information. How they address issues which they hear about long before any of us do will set the tone of the response. Mr. Trump has, at his disposal, a large array of tools which, if properly marshalled could have helped us get ahead of this second spike in the first wave. But he didn't.

But you are also 100% correct when you note individual's culpability with mass protests and gatherings which exposed more people. Others gathered together in arenas to cheer the PResident and they helped spread the disease. The president and his administration have consistently created the false idea that people could get back to normal (lack of leadership) but by the same token people who oppose the president still acted in ways against their interests.

 

[Rubiks]

It is when one side makes wearing a mask akin to being in shackles, doesn't listen to science, and doesn't take proper precautions because their dear leader has been spreading misinformation and setting a poor example.

He could have taken a ploy from the authoritarian textbook and declare a state of emergency because of the coronavirus, but he didn't. He's denying that it's a problem.

Whether that's for the better or for the worse, I'm not sure.

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

I have said many times that this crisis gave Trump a chance to do something Presidential for once.

We just saw Trump in Presidential setting ; statesmanlike behind his desk, might of the nation at his fingertips, giving guidance to nation with over hundred and thirty thousand dead people with millions jobless.

Too bad he uses that time to promote Goya beans

Really. Who votes such a man ?

 

[TheBear]

It is when one side makes wearing a mask akin to being in shackles, doesn't listen to science, and doesn't take proper precautions because their dear leader has been spreading misinformation and setting a poor example.

Seems like Fauci is being treated as the inerrant, 'dear leader' and ultimate authority on COVID-19 public policies. Science doesn't work like that. There are hundreds, if not thousands of doctors and epidemiologists, with 20 plus years practice, who disagree with Fauci on many fronts. The public isn't getting the full story. And as far as misinformation goes, a few months ago, Fauci misinformed the public about wearing masks, claiming that unless you're infected, you really don't have to wear them, that they are ineffective, plus people fidgeting with the mask and touching their face in the process, would increase the chances of getting infected. Then he said it was the N-95 masks that were in shortage for medical personnel. Before that, Fauci relied on erroneous projections, claiming that 1.5 to 2.3 million Americans would be killed by the virus this year. Then you have Hydroxycloriquin, where there hasn't been any major issues since the 1950's. But since Trump shared what he'd been told about it, all of a sudden its bad, because, well, if Orange Man Bad said it, it must be bad. Lot's of lives could have been saved. But, no. The seething hatred of Trump, trumps public health, and prevents intellectual curiosity. Then you have - Trump rallies spread COVID-19, but protesters and rioters not a big deal.

There is no consensus among the scientific community about everything Fauci claims. The scientific method has been abandoned. The public needs to hear from all sides, in context, in order to form an informed opinion. And the mainstream media isn't helping with that. They're only giving one side of the story.

ETA - There are several other examples of misinformation I could mention. I'll just add the glaring example of Nancy Pelosi, who in late Feb was having a good old time in San Francisco's Chinatown, in her effort to virtue signal by discrediting Trump. Nothing to see here!

 

[istodolez]

Seems like Fauci is being treated as the inerrant, 'dear leader' and ultimate authority on COVID-19 public policies. Science doesn't work like that. There are hundreds, if not thousands of doctors and epidemiologists, with 20 plus years practice, who disagree with Fauci on many fronts.

By the same metric it is reasonably clear that Fauci is firmly in the standard healthcare professional view of how to deal with this pandemic.

It is not like Fauci is pushing people drinking bleach or some other fringe craziness. His guidance looks like the standard issue guidance among healthcare professionals.

This reliance on the "outliers" as if it is a means to undercut the generally agreed upon scientific facts is how we wind up with climate denialism running rampant.

The public isn't getting the full story. And as far as misinformation goes, a few months ago, Fauci misinformed the public about wearing masks, claiming that unless you're infected, you really don't have to wear them, that they are ineffective, plus people fidgeting with the mask and touching their face in the process, would increase the chances of getting infected. Then he said it was the N-95 masks that were in shortage for medical personnel. Before that, Fauci relied on erroneous projections, claiming that 1.5 to 2.3 million Americans would be killed by the virus this year. Then you have Hydroxycloriquin, where there hasn't been any major issues since the 1950's. But since Trump shared what he'd been told about it, all of a sudden its bad, because, well, if Orange Man Bad said it, it must be bad. Lot's of lives could have been saved. But, no. The seething hatred of Trump, trumps public health, and prevents intellectual curiosity. Then you have - Trump rallies spread COVID-19, but protesters and rioters not a big deal.

This effectively guts your own point. Rather than focusing on the science you listed a number of cases where Fauci (like all humans facing a NOVEL disease) could make errors. Then your point devolves into the standard issue conspiracy theory that people will do literally anything to make Trump look bad.

Then you critique "projections", this is standard issue "science denialism" talk because anyone who HAS worked in the sciences understands that models are not perfect and any issue with projections does NOT necessarily call into question science qua science. It also does NOT allow those who know next to nothing about the science to get their "opinions" accepted because a model didn't perfectly accurately predict with 100% confidence something.

I'm not going to say Fauci is perfect (no one who works in science would say that about any scientist), but by the same token he's also doing science right. (As for his early mask advice part of that appears to be due to the shortages of masks.) Science works by openly correcting those errors which have been done.

There is no consensus among the scientific community about everything Fauci claims. The scientific method has been abandoned.

This is also a standard used in "climate denialism": "the scientific method is abandoned!" That is usually something only non-scientists say when they don't see the science lining up with their preconceived notions. Speaking as a scientist with 25 years experience in the lab I can tell you that the "scientific method" is far more nuanced, broad and complex and not necessarily a "check list" you go through in how you do the science. You do science within a strict set of boundaries on inference and logic, but it isn't a "ticklist".

The public needs to hear from all sides, in context, in order to form an informed opinion.

Yes and no. The public has the right to hear from all sides but in the end skepticism that is NOT informed by actual understanding of the science is not valid skepticism.

If someone comes on the news to talk about climate change it would be a disservice to treat climate change denialism as having an equal footing. It simply doesn't. It's a fringe concept among scientists and is so marginal as to be little more than noise.

And I know I'm harping on about climate change but the same model seems to be forming up around the pandemic. Non-scientists wanting fringe theories to be given equal footing with standard science and then leveraging any imperfection in science to open the door for quackery or fringe concepts.

 

[TheBear]

By the same metric it is reasonably clear that Fauci is firmly in the standard healthcare professional view of how to deal with this pandemic.

It is not like Fauci is pushing people drinking bleach or some other fringe craziness. His guidance looks like the standard issue guidance among healthcare professionals.

This reliance on the "outliers" as if it is a means to undercut the generally agreed upon scientific facts is how we wind up with climate denialism running rampant.



This effectively guts your own point. Rather than focusing on the science you listed a number of cases where Fauci (like all humans facing a NOVEL disease) could make errors. Then your point devolves into the standard issue conspiracy theory that people will do literally anything to make Trump look bad.

Then you critique "projections", this is standard issue "science denialism" talk because anyone who HAS worked in the sciences understands that models are not perfect and any issue with projections does NOT necessarily call into question science qua science. It also does NOT allow those who know next to nothing about the science to get their "opinions" accepted because a model didn't perfectly accurately predict with 100% confidence something.

I'm not going to say Fauci is perfect (no one who works in science would say that about any scientist), but by the same token he's also doing science right. (As for his early mask advice part of that appears to be due to the shortages of masks.) Science works by openly correcting those errors which have been done.



This is also a standard used in "climate denialism": "the scientific method is abandoned!" That is usually something only non-scientists say when they don't see the science lining up with their preconceived notions. Speaking as a scientist with 25 years experience in the lab I can tell you that the "scientific method" is far more nuanced, broad and complex and not necessarily a "check list" you go through in how you do the science. You do science within a strict set of boundaries on inference and logic, but it isn't a "ticklist".



Yes and no. The public has the right to hear from all sides but in the end skepticism that is NOT informed by actual understanding of the science is not valid skepticism.

If someone comes on the news to talk about climate change it would be a disservice to treat climate change denialism as having an equal footing. It simply doesn't. It's a fringe concept among scientists and is so marginal as to be little more than noise.

And I know I'm harping on about climate change but the same model seems to be forming up around the pandemic. Non-scientists wanting fringe theories to be given equal footing with standard science and then leveraging any imperfection in science to open the door for quackery or fringe concepts.

Like I said, there are hundreds, if not thousands of others in the same healthcare profession, with 20+ years, some of which are epidemiologists going as far back as working the HIV epidemic, who disagree with Fauci's conclusions about COVID-19. And, the actual "science denial" is the politicization of science. I'm not decided on the whole thing. I want all the data, from a neutral position, in context, so I can make informed decisions. I think most rational people want that. So, please stop insulting my intelligence by dismissing everything I say as 'fringe' or science denial. The only science denial involved is the lopsidedness, with no intellectual curiosity to even question it or look at opposition research. It is people taking everything Fauci says as the final and authoritative word ..... just like a religion.

When I get time, I'll post multiple citations of what I'm talking about. In the meantime, you can find it for yourself, (if you have any intellectual curiosity and can get past the politics).

 

[pitabread]

Before that, Fauci relied on erroneous projections, claiming that 1.5 to 2.3 million Americans would be killed by the virus this year.

Those predictions were based on an unchecked pandemic with no mitigation strategies. Those predictions weren't erroneous; rather they represented a worse-case scenario if America did nothing.