Covid19-Comparing response and deaths across nations, over time.

[Occams Barber]

Deaths per million population

View attachment 282373

Thanks Tall. After a quick look I get the impression that the European numbers are slowing down while the UK, and the U.S are still climbing.

Worldometer daily death figures suggest that the US death rate may be easing a little but with the size of the population and the number of separate centres of infection this may reflect various parts of the country at different stages.

After appearing to have control of the problem Australia is going through a resurgence. Per million deaths were stuck at 4 but have now climbed to 10 with a breakout of local transmission in Victoria.

New Zealand remains at 4 per million and no new cases.

OB

 

[tall73]

Thanks Tall. After a quick look I get the impression that the European numbers are slowing down while the UK, and the U.S are still climbing.

Worldometer daily death figures suggest that the US death rate may be easing a little but with the size of the population and the number of separate centres of infection this may reflect various parts of the country at different stages.

After appearing to have control of the problem Australia is going through a resurgence. Per million deaths were stuck at 4 but have now climbed to 10 with a breakout of local transmission in Victoria.

New Zealand remains at 4 per million and no new cases.

OB

Yes, and Canada seems to have finally gotten their rate to slow as well. I agree that the US seems ready to pass most of Europe, if things stay as they are. They already passed France.

As for the individual states, here is some data on that. Geographical isolation still seems to play a role. But we can see how some made it through the initial crisis well, but are now struggling.

States by deaths per million population:

New Jersey 1793
New York 1687
Massachusetts 1261
Connecticut 1245
Rhode Island 957
Louisiana 892
Michigan 651
Illinois 615
Mississippi 613
Delaware 603
Maryland 587
Pennsylvania 575
Arizona 550
Indiana 448
Georgia 379
South Carolina 377
Florida 361
Alabama 350
Colorado 322
New Mexico 319
Ohio 310
New Hampshire 308
Minnesota 297
Nevada 292
Iowa 289
Texas 280
Virginia 269
California 254
Missouri 221
Washington 218
North Carolina 202
Nebraska 176
Tennessee 174
Arkansas 171
Kentucky 170
Wisconsin 168
South Dakota 159
Oklahoma 150
North Dakota 143
Kansas 130
Idaho 125
Utah 103
Vermont 93
Maine 92
Oregon 80
West Virginia 69
Montana 61
Wyoming 47
Alaska 34
Hawaii 20



Deaths per million for select states over time.

 

[tall73]

After appearing to have control of the problem Australia is going through a resurgence. Per million deaths were stuck at 4 but have now climbed to 10 with a breakout of local transmission in Victoria.

I hope they get it back under control. Once it reaches a certain point those start to sky rocket.

 

[JohnDB]

I'm wondering if the recent increase in deaths is coming from incidents of re-infection from essential workers.

That would definitely be something to look at.

 

[tall73]

I'm wondering if the recent increase in deaths is coming from incidents of re-infection from essential workers.

That would definitely be something to look at.

One thing that complicates any such analysis of rates of infection among essential workers, vs. staying at home, etc. is that mild cases or asymptomatic cases are likely to be unreported. And if you are in shape enough to be an essential worker you may have less likelyhood of serious infection compared to those closer to home during the outbreak.

Another theory is that it is hot in the summer and many people are in AC which could circulate COVID in the air. Hence those states that have very hot summers seem to be particularly hard hit right now (Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Flordia, etc.).

I am sure they are trying to study it all. But it is tough to nail down.

 

[JohnDB]

One thing that complicates any such analysis of rates of infection among essential workers, vs. staying at home, etc. is that mild cases or asymptomatic cases are likely to be unreported. And if you are in shape enough to be an essential worker you may have less likelyhood of serious infection compared to those closer to home during the outbreak.

Another theory is that it is hot in the summer and many people are in AC which could circulate COVID in the air. Hence those states that have very hot summers seem to be particularly hard hit right now (Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Flordia, etc.).

I am sure they are trying to study it all. But it is tough to nail down.

That's why they have epidemiology scientists...
They study the who and why in epidemics.
(Wife worked in Epidemiology dept for years)

The calculations are beyond my skills in mathematics. All calculus formulas and etc.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Deaths per million population

View attachment 282373

Very roughly, going from the first column to the last, numbers have doubled. Exceptions being

UK, Portugal 3x
Ireland 4x
Sweden 5x
US 6x
Canada 10x

 

[tall73]

Thanks Tall. After a quick look I get the impression that the European numbers are slowing down while the UK, and the U.S are still climbing.

Worldometer daily death figures suggest that the US death rate may be easing a little but with the size of the population and the number of separate centres of infection this may reflect various parts of the country at different stages.

After appearing to have control of the problem Australia is going through a resurgence. Per million deaths were stuck at 4 but have now climbed to 10 with a breakout of local transmission in Victoria.

New Zealand remains at 4 per million and no new cases.

OB

New Zealand On Alert After 4 Cases Of COVID-19 Emerge From Unknown Source


The first case identified in the cluster was a person in their 50s with no overseas travel history. The person has been symptomatic for five days and was confirmed positive on Tuesday. The six members of the person's household were then tested: three tested positive and three negative.

Any updates locally?

 

[Occams Barber]

New Zealand On Alert After 4 Cases Of COVID-19 Emerge From Unknown Source


The first case identified in the cluster was a person in their 50s with no overseas travel history. The person has been symptomatic for five days and was confirmed positive on Tuesday. The six members of the person's household were then tested: three tested positive and three negative.

Any updates locally?

Just saw part of a live press conference from NZ. Nothing new. Cases appear to be workplace related. NZ will be doing a genetic analysis to try and establish the origin of the viral strain. NZ has gone back into lockdown. NZ has a phase 4 (high level) quarantine facility for New Zealanders returned from overseas.

Looks like these new cases are local transmission not connected to overseas returns.

OB

 

[tall73]

It looks like the new wave hitting Australia is worse than the initial. I hope they are able to get it under control again before it takes off as it has in other areas. The curve is going down again now.

 

[tall73]

Unfortunately the lagging indicator of deaths per day has not yet started declining in the same way. And it seems considerably worse than the initial wave.

 

[tall73]

After appearing to have control of the problem Australia is going through a resurgence. Per million deaths were stuck at 4 but have now climbed to 10 with a breakout of local transmission in Victoria.

Now up to 14. And it looks like it has a ways to go before it slows.

 

[Occams Barber]

Now up to 14. And it looks like it has a ways to go before it slows.

The resurgence problem is in the state of Victoria which is now in Stage 4 lockdown - compulsory masks, no outings without good reason and big fines for non compliance.

On a personal note - My 99 year old father lives alone in a small regional town in Victoria. I live over a thousand miles away. As soon as I heard about the rules I ordered a pack of 50 masks online sent direct to his address. It took me 3 days to reach him by phone (he's partially deaf and has a habit of not wearing his hearing aids) to warn him about the new rules and to expect the masks. I've also clued up his visiting carers and asked them to reinforce the rules.

What will he do? - what he always does - exactly what he wants. He'll be off wandering around town pushing his little wheely frame.

I'm not too worried. There's no CV (yet) in his part of the world and the local cops know him so he won't be fined. They're more likely to drive him home.

At 99 I'm hesitant to deprive him of the simple pleasure of going out for a walk even if there is a small risk.

OB

 

[tall73]

The resurgence problem is in the state of Victoria which is now in Stage 4 lockdown - compulsory masks, no outings without good reason and big fines for non compliance.

On a personal note - My 99 year old father lives alone in a small regional town in Victoria. I live over a thousand miles away. As soon as I heard about the rules I ordered a pack of 50 masks online sent direct to his address. It took me 3 days to reach him by phone (he's partially deaf and has a habit of not wearing his hearing aids) to warn him about the new rules and to expect the masks. I've also clued up his visiting carers and asked them to reinforce the rules.

What will he do? - what he always does - exactly what he wants. He'll be off wandering around town pushing his little wheely frame.

I'm not too worried. There's no CV (yet) in his part of the world and the local cops know him so he won't be fined. They're more likely to drive him home.

At 99 I'm hesitant to deprive him of the simple pleasure of going out for a walk even if there is a small risk.

OB

I can understand weighing the risks. My grandmother is in her 90's as well. But she is in an assisted living facility and they have been on lockdown for months, without any visits.

In her case they have had over 20 deaths and many cases. It is hard to watch, but there is only so much you can do.

 

[stevil]

New Zealand On Alert After 4 Cases Of COVID-19 Emerge From Unknown Source


The first case identified in the cluster was a person in their 50s with no overseas travel history. The person has been symptomatic for five days and was confirmed positive on Tuesday. The six members of the person's household were then tested: three tested positive and three negative.

Any updates locally?

We have always been warned that there are likely to be further outbreaks in our country.
But having over 3 months of no known community transmission got us feeling somewhat invincible or perhaps hopeful.

So it was quite a shock to learn that we have now a community outbreak.
On the hopeful side all current cases are linked together
On Wednesday we were told there were 4 cases all within the same family/household. None of the family members had travelled overseas recently and hadn't had known contact with anyone that had travelled overseas. This meant that we have a hidden source/outbreak in Auckland so cannot narrow down isolation.
Auckland immediately went into lockdown level 3 (schools closed, pubs and restaurants closed, no sporting events, everyone except for essential services to work from home), and the rest of the country into lockdown 2 (no gathering of over 100 people, rest homes on lockdown 4, people recommended to work from home where possible, masks are recommended). These lockdowns are for 3 days and to be re-evaluated late on Friday.
On Thursday we were told there were 13 new cases all with connection to the initial family.
On Friday we were told there were 13 new cases all with connections to the initial family. 11 of those are in the greater Auckland and 2 cases are in Waikato (Hamilton).

So all up now we have 30 known community cases which are all connected. But still don't know how the disease got into the country.

We are now waiting for the Friday announcement on what will happen with the lockdowns.
As a guess, because they haven't yet traced the initial source, Auckland will probably remain on lockdown 3. I'm not sure what will happen for the rest of NZ but obviously hoping there is no known community transmission and maybe (except for Hamilton) the rest of the country can drop down to level 1??

Anyway, I'll post an update later.

EDIT: on a side note, it is likely that newly discovered cases are linked to the initial Auckland family because of contact tracing, that is where they are looking!

 

[stevil]

Friday's update has been given. We remain with Auckland in lockdown 3, NZ in lockdown 2 for the next two weeks. They are happy that Waikato cases can be managed through contact tracing. Auckland remains a wide lockdown as they don't know the source.
Genome sequencing indicates that this is a different strain from our first wave, so this wasn't as a result of a dormant virus from that. Genome sequencing also indicates that this case is different from all known cases in quarantine at our border. We might never know where the origins of this came from, but that isn't essential to find in order to control and stamp out this latest outbreak.
They have performed 30,000 tests in the last two days.

 

[tall73]

Daily new cases, 7 day moving average in Australia

Daily Deaths, 7 day moving average in Australia

Hopefully the deaths are on the way down now. They are up to 19 deaths per million population.

 

[JohnDB]

This virus is going to be with us for a while since felines can carry it.

It will continue to have small to large outbreaks for a really long time.
They haven't contained Ebola...they won't contain this one either.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Interesting Pew poll data from 14 countries, not just on their governments' handling, but whether COVID-19 has united or divided the country.

US and UK are bottom of the pile in rankings of governments' handling of coronavirus pandemic

 

[tall73]

Coronavirus Update (Live): 35,054,898 Cases and 1,036,328 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

This is looking at stats world-wide. It is hard to know how much of this is influenced by severe lack of testing early on. But we do see continuing trends of better treatment (at least in regards to death, it is harder to track permanent non-lethal impacts).