COVID Risk Factors and Susceptibility to COVID

[pitabread]

It’s just weird, and considering how survivable this virus is, compared to swine flu, Ebola, and various other awful things, I don’t see the need for the level of control, restrictions, mandates, and closures.

Transmissibility is a major factor here. The Ebola virus, for example, is far less transmissible especially in places with modern sanitation. So even though it has a far higher case fatality rate, it's overall a less deadly disease because it can't spread as easily.

It's also worth nothing there have been strict control measures in place with other diseases/outbreaks, but they tend to be localized. For example, during the SARS outbreak in Canada, thousands of people were placed in quarantine. The outbreak ended up being contained without the need for a wider response.

Conversely with SARS-CoV-2 you have the right blend of transmissibility and case fatality rate that allowed to spread around the globe and kill millions in the process. As containment is a lost cause, the best thing is taking a variety of preventative measures including vaccinations.

 

[anna ~ grace]

Transmissibility is a major factor here. The Ebola virus, for example, is far less transmissible especially in places with modern sanitation. So even though it has a far higher case fatality rate, it's overall a less deadly disease because it can't spread as easily.

It's also worth nothing there have been strict control measures in place with other diseases/outbreaks, but they tend to be localized. For example, during the SARS outbreak in Canada, thousands of people were placed in quarantine. The outbreak ended up being contained without the need for a wider response.

Conversely with SARS-CoV-2 you have the right blend of transmissibility and case fatality rate that allowed to spread around the globe and kill millions in the process. As containment is a lost cause, the best thing is taking a variety of preventative measures including vaccinations.

The virus is at 98% survivable overall. I’ve seen what it does and doesn’t do up close. These measures were mostly unnecessary.

And think about this carefully; you have a super store where hundreds of people tromp through all day, everyday. Touching everything, using the bathrooms, touching everything. That’s fine. Those stay open. A church which contains a fraction of that amount of people for maybe two hours max once a week has to shut down for months. Why?

Believe me, the supermarkets are not operating rooms. They’re relatively filthy. Yes, we have cart sanitizers, and that’s great. It helps. And some measures in place. But we simply don’t have the resources or time to spray down everything 24/7. You’re still walking into a Covid swimming pool daily. Those stayed open. The workers didn’t get to stay at home. They came in, wore cloth masks, maybe used the hand sanitizer, many of us came in when we felt crummy because we needed the money. We stayed open. No one was bugging out about us. Weird, huh?

 

[pitabread]

The virus is at 98% survivable overall.
I’ve seen what it does and doesn’t do up close. These measures were mostly unnecessary.

A 2% case fatality rate would mean that if everyone in the U.S. contracted the virus, over 6 million people would die just from the virus alone. And that's not counting additional deaths as a result of overwhelming healthcare services.

Does that seem reasonable to you?

(Keep in mind the number of annual deaths in 2019 was ~2.8M people.)

The sad thing is if the U.S. had taken a unified aggressive approach (ala New Zealand and Australia), they could have probably avoided the majority of the deaths and associated suffering. But they didn't and things unfolded the way they did.

And think about this carefully; you have a super store where hundreds of people tromp through all day, everyday. Touching everything, using the bathrooms, touching everything. That’s fine. Those stay open. A church which contains a fraction of that amount of people for maybe two hours max once a week has to shut down for months. Why?

Essential services. People need to get food to live. Visiting a church, not so much.

Believe me, the supermarkets are not operating rooms. They’re relatively filthy. Yes, we have cart sanitizers, and that’s great. It helps. And some measures in place. But we simply don’t have the resources or time to spray down everything 24/7. You’re still walking into a Covid swimming pool daily. Those stayed open. The workers didn’t get to stay at home. They came in, wore cloth masks, maybe used the hand sanitizer, many of us came in when we felt crummy because we needed the money. We stayed open. No one was bugging out about us. Weird, huh?

I don't disagree it's a crappy situation for those still being in public and being exposed.

FWIW, my own local grocery store put up plexiglass screens, had workers wearing masks and face shields, and aggressively clean everything (you had to wait for cashiers as they sprayed things down between serving customers). We also have had mask mandates in place since March 2020, so every customer has to wear a mask to enter the store.

It's certainly not a perfect situation, but better than doing nothing at all.

 

[anna ~ grace]

A 2% case fatality rate would mean that if everyone in the U.S. contracted the virus, over 6 million people would die just from the virus alone. And that's not counting additional deaths as a result of overwhelming healthcare services.

Does that seem reasonable to you?

(Keep in mind the number of annual deaths in 2019 was ~2.8M people.)

The sad thing is if the U.S. had taken a unified aggressive approach (ala New Zealand and Australia), they could have probably avoided the majority of the deaths and associated suffering. But they didn't and things unfolded the way they did.



Essential services. People need to get food to live. Visiting a church, not so much.



I don't disagree it's a crappy situation for those still being in public and being exposed.

FWIW, my own local grocery store put up plexiglass screens, had workers wearing masks and face shields, and aggressively clean everything (you had to wait for cashiers as they sprayed things down between serving customers). We also have had mask mandates in place since March 2020, so every customer has to wear a mask to enter the store.

It's certainly not a perfect situation, but better than doing nothing at all.

Then, we can take measures like a reasonable amount of sanitizing, masks, and things like that. We don’t need to 100% shut down. And the most vulnerable who are truly afraid of getting this and who would like to stay home, can.

Fwiw, I remember watching eighty-year-old women roaming cheerfully around the grocery store at the height of the pandemic pre-vaccines with no face mask. They knew, they just didn’t care. That always startled me. They’re the most vulnerable. Why not give them options? Instead of forcing stuff on them? And if they have the freedom to make those kind of choices, why can’t everyone?

The soul needs to be fed too, Pita. The Eucharist, worship, praying in-person with other Christians, coming together to celebrate the Resurrection of Christ from the dead, these things are at least as (and imho way more) important as having access to Doritos, ice cream, marshmallows, and pie. Seriously.

 

[pitabread]

And the most vulnerable who are truly afraid of getting this and who would like to stay home, can.

Which again, if we weren't dealing with highly transmissible virus would be just fine. But the fact that the virus can be transmitted quite easily from A to B means that even people staying home are at risk if someone else brings it to them.

I don't know why this point needs to keep being repeated.

Fwiw, I remember watching eighty-year-old women roaming cheerfully around the grocery store at the height of the pandemic pre-vaccines with no face mask. They knew, they just didn’t care. That always startled me. They’re the most vulnerable. Why not give them options? Instead of forcing stuff on them? And if they have the freedom to make those kind of choices, why can’t everyone?

Because we're dealing with a highly transmissible virus, that's why. A person's choice to disregard precautions puts everyone else at risk.

This attitude boils down to, "screw the vulnerable, if they die, tough cookies, I want muh freedoms."

Sorry, but no. People don't get to do that. Not in a civilized society.

The soul needs to be fed too, Pita. The Eucharist, worship, praying in-person with other Christians, coming together to celebrate the Resurrection of Christ from the dead, these things are at least (and imho way more) important as having access to Doritos, ice cream, marshmallows, and pie. Seriously.

I don't know what kind of grocery store you work at, but the one I visit sells a lot more than just junk food.

And if you really think that praying in a church is more important than eating, then I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Kyrani]

Oh, well, a sample size of ONE disproves all we know about the immune system!

You will be famous!

This is not about a sample size of one. I got to know something to be able to ward off infections and infectious disease. And it is not that it disproves anything about immunity. On the contrary it affirms what is known about immunity AND what the good doctors are not telling the public. Taking vitamin D and standing on your head in a yoga stance is not going to turn your immunity back on if it is declined due to stress. That is the point.
Lastly I am not interested in being famous. I am interested in living a long healthy life.

 

[Kyrani]

Because we're dealing with a highly transmissible virus, that's why. A person's choice to disregard precautions puts everyone else at risk.

This attitude boils down to, "screw the vulnerable, if they die, tough cookies, I want muh freedoms."

Sorry, but no. People don't get to do that. Not in a civilized society.

Highly transmissible? How do we determine that. We have four percent of the worlds population with a positive test in two years. And that is if we are going to trust that the PCR test doesn't ever give any false positives, which it does by the ton.
Every person has an immune system and that is their protection. We can't shield pathogens eternally. They are part of living this life on earth. You want to lock up everyone and destroy the economy for what is part of life. Sure some are vulnerable but they can be protected without everyone in lockup indefinitely.
A civilized society? What in hiding?

 

[pitabread]

Highly transmissible? How do we determine that.

There are metrics for measuring that. For example, Basic reproduction number - Wikipedia

Every person has an immune system and that is their protection. We can't shield pathogens eternally. They are part of living this life on earth. You want to lock up everyone and destroy the economy for what is part of life. Sure some are vulnerable but they can be protected without everyone in lockup indefinitely.
A civilized society? What in hiding?

We can take preventative steps to reduce relative harm. And nobody is suggesting locking everything down indefinitely. That's just a strawman.

The point of lockdowns was largely to stem the spread of the virus so that healthcare services don't become overwhelmed. We've already seen what happens when preventative measures aren't taken and such services are overwhelmed. It just leads to a bunch of needless suffering and death.

I don't really understand this overly fatalistic view that we shouldn't try to avoid that. Do you not care about your fellow humans?

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

I hear you about general safety measures, however. We have had other deadly, concerning ailments hit our shores. We didn’t see this level of response. Lockdowns. Church is closed, but Walmart’s safe. What? It’s just weird, and considering how survivable this virus is, compared to swine flu, Ebola, and various other awful things, I don’t see the need for the level of control, restrictions, mandates, and closures.

Especially as I’ve been living and working within this pandemic from the word “go”, and while it’s concerning and has done great damage, if grocery store workers can carry on with cloth face masks and hand sanitizer and life goes on because people need food, looking at the other circles of control, fear, and shutdowns makes them seem weird. And not entirely necessary.

I generally don't take the media - especially social media - too seriously, I treat mainstream news as a cue to check the research studies and the published statistics.

But I do have some personal experience - as a human biologist I have some knowledge of the transmission of viruses, the infection process, and how the immune system responds (so I can tell you that Kyrani's earlier posts were misinformed nonsense).

I also spent 24hrs in the Acute Care Unit (non-Covid) of a local hospital at the end of November last year, and saw and heard first-hand how the staff were (barely) coping. They told me that the (late) arrival of suitable PPE, instead of the simple disposable blue masks, had almost stopped staff infection and without it, they'd probably have had to close their Covid wards.

In the mixed ward I was in, one of the patients was wheeled out in the middle of the night and the ward cordoned-off because she'd tested positive. Fortunately, my bed was next to the open windows - a welcome but chilly draught. We were all given 14 day quarantine orders (although they did let me drive home). The place felt like a war zone - a mixture of tension, exhaustion, and forced cheeriness, and that was outside of the Covid wards.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

FWIW, my own local grocery store put up plexiglass screens, had workers wearing masks and face shields, and aggressively clean everything (you had to wait for cashiers as they sprayed things down between serving customers). We also have had mask mandates in place since March 2020, so every customer has to wear a mask to enter the store.

It's certainly not a perfect situation, but better than doing nothing at all.

One of the big problems was the WHO and other health authorities taking so long to realise or accept that aerosol transmission was the major risk. The benefits of spraying and sanitization of surfaces were pretty small compared to good ventilation, mask-wearing, and social distancing. Plexiglass partitions were fine for reducing droplet transmission, but for aerosols they were pot-luck, as depending on the air currents, they could either help protect from or concentrate exhaled virus particles.

 

[Kyrani]

There are metrics for measuring that. For example, Basic reproduction number - Wikipedia



We can take preventative steps to reduce relative harm. And nobody is suggesting locking everything down indefinitely. That's just a strawman.

The point of lockdowns was largely to stem the spread of the virus so that healthcare services don't become overwhelmed. We've already seen what happens when preventative measures aren't taken and such services are overwhelmed. It just leads to a bunch of needless suffering and death.

I don't really understand this overly fatalistic view that we shouldn't try to avoid that. Do you not care about your fellow humans?

The problem with this virus and how infectious is that the PCR test is not reliable. So how do we know how many cases from one person given all can be infected, as Wikipedia states?
Have a look at this study.
81% of COVID-positive passengers on Antarctic cruise ship had no symptoms: new study | The Lighthouse (mq.edu.au)
It says:
Of the 217 passengers and crew, 128 (59 per cent) tested positive, although fever and mild symptoms were present in only 16 of the COVID-19- positive patients (12.5 per cent), with another eight medically evacuated (6.2 per cent) and four requiring intubation and ventilation (3.1 per cent).

One has to ask how many of those who tested positive were false positives? But even if we were to treat the lot as positive, these are people on the same ship. About 60% were positive and the rest, 40% were negative. How can you be on the same ship for a long while with shared air space and facilities and not contact it? It is cases like these that make me skeptical of what I read.

The measles virus is said to be highly transmissible. Both my sisters got the measles. I had to help my parents look after them. So I was in the same room and handling things that they had eaten from and clothing. I never got sick from the virus, if I had contacted it, nor did my parents.

I do care for others but we need to realize that we have an immune system that can handle the virus and destroy it. It is people who are stressed that have a declined immune system to some extent that are at risk. However I have seen both in myself and others, whom I have advised over the years, that it is possible to turn on immunity if one is stressed. And that is regardless of whether one can address the stress or not. One only needs to realize that the primary danger is in the body. That will turn on immunity again. And this is not a fantasy. If we don't have our health we can't handle any difficult situation. Health is primary.

Furthermore one should never entertain ideas of damage in the body. If there is damage the immune system will take care of it. To entertain ideas of damage is to set off the immune system on a rampage. This was seen in scores of chemotherapy drug trials from around 1950 to about 1990s as they used sugar pills for the placebo. Patients in the control arm believing that they had the real drug had lost their hair and vomited. It has been seen in science and is covered over. Why? Ideas of damage is where the danger lies and the media have gone overboard with stories of "dangerous virus doing damage". We are not meat robots. We are conscious beings and what thoughts we react to affect our physiology.
And please note. I am NOT telling anyone not to seek medical help if they get sick. Of course they seek medical help. What I am advising is quite apart from medical help.

 

[mama2one]

risk factors of catching virus?
or risk factors for hospitalization/death?

several articles this week state that everyone will catch it sooner or later

we don't plan on catching it
husband, teen, & I got vaccine
we wear masks

not required @ school but teen is wearing mask daily
husband wears mask when he leaves his office at work

I rarely go anywhere & started shopping online in 2020
always preferred in-person shopping but I don't miss it!

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

risk factors of catching virus?
or risk factors for hospitalization/death?

several articles this week state that everyone will catch it sooner or later

we don't plan on catching it
husband, teen, & I got vaccine
we wear masks

not required @ school but teen is wearing mask daily
husband wears mask when he leaves his office at work

I rarely go anywhere & started shopping online in 2020
always preferred in-person shopping but I don't miss it!

As I understand it, the reasoning that it will probably become endemic is because the 'herd immunity' level is now over 100% due to the transmissibility of the delta variant and the degree to which it can still infect the double-vaccinated and previously infected (albeit not seriously for most); also these groups shed as much virus when infected as the non-vaccinated.

The suggested strategy is now to take all standard precautions (e.g. mask-wearing in indoor public spaces & outdoor crowds, social distancing, good ventilation) until you've had a booster dose, after which you can relax a bit - infection will probably still occur, but for most will be mild and provide an additional boost to their immune response.

Those with immune deficiencies and/or major comorbidities depend on others being careful, so it's not looking too good for them...

 

[tas8831]

The logic that “people can’t be trusted, so…” gets used in totalitarian regimes often. Be careful.

Apples? Meet oranges.