....couldn't put Humpty together again.

Wolseley

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chevyontheriver

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Well, it's nice to know that the US of A isn't the only one crumbling into decay and dissolution.

Meanwhile, the Chinese just continue to get stronger.....
China itself is a house of cards. They have a housing bubble of MASSIVE proportions, and when it fails the economic consequences will be worldwide. They have an imbalance of young men vs young women. The CCP finds itself needing to clamp down HARD on Muslims and Christians because there are more of them than there are Communist Party members. They need to take over the South China Sea for oil resources, but they will have to do that militarily. And they have a nice little epidemic of something going on with a locus in the city of Xian. The 'Great Firewall of China' is currently censoring all information about that new epidemic, but millions of Chinese people are in mandated lockdown. Expect to hear more about that little epidemic in coming days. I fear it will make Wuhan a nothingburger virus. China is gagging over swallowing Hong Kong. When they make the inevitable move to swallow Taiwan, they may choke on it if they succeed. Or be handed a choking defeat if they fail. Or dishonor if they back down, which I see as the least likely scenario.

China could blow up politically at any time. I don't see it lasting politically for more than two or three years. The USA and Europe aren't sitting pretty but if I were an informed Chinese Communist Party official I would be looking for a personal exit strategy.
 
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Wolseley

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China itself is a house of cards. They have a housing bubble of MASSIVE proportions, and when it fails the economic consequences will be worldwide. They have an imbalance of young men vs young women. The CCP finds itself needing to clamp down HARD on Muslims and Christians because there are more of them than there are Communist Party members. They need to take over the South China Sea for oil resources, but they will have to do that militarily. And they have a nice little epidemic of something going on with a locus in the city of Xian. The 'Great Firewall of China' is currently censoring all information about that new epidemic, but millions of Chinese people are in mandated lockdown. Expect to hear more about that little epidemic in coming days. I fear it will make Wuhan a nothingburger virus. China is gagging over swallowing Hong Kong. When they make the inevitable move to swallow Taiwan, they may choke on it if they succeed. Or be handed a choking defeat if they fail. Or dishonor if they back down, which I see as the least likely scenario.

China could blow up politically at any time. I don't see it lasting politically for more than two or three years. The USA and Europe aren't sitting pretty but if I were an informed Chinese Communist Party official I would be looking for a personal exit strategy.

I haven't heard of any of that, but I trust you as a source, chevy. :) It will be interesting to see what happens if North America, Europe, and China all implode about the same time---and the way their economies are intertwined, that scenario may be more likely than not.

Who will fill the vacuum? Russia? Islam?
 
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pescador

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China itself is a house of cards. They have a housing bubble of MASSIVE proportions, and when it fails the economic consequences will be worldwide. They have an imbalance of young men vs young women. The CCP finds itself needing to clamp down HARD on Muslims and Christians because there are more of them than there are Communist Party members. They need to take over the South China Sea for oil resources, but they will have to do that militarily. And they have a nice little epidemic of something going on with a locus in the city of Xian. The 'Great Firewall of China' is currently censoring all information about that new epidemic, but millions of Chinese people are in mandated lockdown. Expect to hear more about that little epidemic in coming days. I fear it will make Wuhan a nothingburger virus. China is gagging over swallowing Hong Kong. When they make the inevitable move to swallow Taiwan, they may choke on it if they succeed. Or be handed a choking defeat if they fail. Or dishonor if they back down, which I see as the least likely scenario.

China could blow up politically at any time. I don't see it lasting politically for more than two or three years. The USA and Europe aren't sitting pretty but if I were an informed Chinese Communist Party official I would be looking for a personal exit strategy.

Aside from your personal opinion, do you have any valid sources of this information?
 
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chevyontheriver

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Aside from your personal opinion, do you have any valid sources of this information?
I have. But I'm not going to spend the next hours detailing them only to have you shout them down. If you want to disbelieve me I'm actually quite cool with that. If you want to castigate me for not spending the next several hours of my life providing you sources that you can then shout down I'm equally cool with that. I'd rather cook dinner and have a nice quiet evening getting ready for the upcoming week. Basically, when you tell me to jump I say 'meh'. And if you don't like my response I say 'meh'.
 
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pescador

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I have. But I'm not going to spend the next hours detailing them only to have you shout them down. If you want to disbelieve me I'm actually quite cool with that. If you want to castigate me for not spending the next several hours of my life providing you sources that you can then shout down I'm equally cool with that. I'd rather cook dinner and have a nice quiet evening getting ready for the upcoming week. Basically, when you tell me to jump I say 'meh'. And if you don't like my response I say 'meh'.

In other words, you don't have any valid sources of this information. Why should anyone believe you?

Have a nice dinner.
 
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chevyontheriver

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I haven't heard of any of that, but I trust you as a source, chevy. :) It will be interesting to see what happens if North America, Europe, and China all implode about the same time---and the way their economies are intertwined, that scenario may be more likely than not.
Economies are intertwined, so things in one part of the globe could precipitate change anywhere else.
Who will fill the vacuum? Russia? Islam?
That I have no idea. I have a preference, but I don't know if it could actually work. The late cardinal Jaime Sin of the Philippines was an ethnic Chinese and he had a plan for a massive evangelization of China if the Communists ever collapsed. To a degree, considering China is nearly if not the country with the largest Christian population right now, the evangelization work is already partially accomplished. What I would like to see is Chinese Christians taking charge of China. I don't know it they would be unified enough or well enough prepared to try, but if they could we would have a chance at China unleashed, a positive China. I do think this century will belong to China, just not to the Communist Party of China necessarily.
 
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chevyontheriver

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In other words, you don't have any valid sources of this information. Why should anyone believe you?
I knew you would say exactly that and I don't particularly care to worry about it. You asked me to jump I jumped zero inches for you. Oh, and meh.
Have a nice dinner.
I will.
 
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tz620q

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China itself is a house of cards. They have a housing bubble of MASSIVE proportions, and when it fails the economic consequences will be worldwide. They have an imbalance of young men vs young women. The CCP finds itself needing to clamp down HARD on Muslims and Christians because there are more of them than there are Communist Party members. They need to take over the South China Sea for oil resources, but they will have to do that militarily. And they have a nice little epidemic of something going on with a locus in the city of Xian. The 'Great Firewall of China' is currently censoring all information about that new epidemic, but millions of Chinese people are in mandated lockdown. Expect to hear more about that little epidemic in coming days. I fear it will make Wuhan a nothingburger virus. China is gagging over swallowing Hong Kong. When they make the inevitable move to swallow Taiwan, they may choke on it if they succeed. Or be handed a choking defeat if they fail. Or dishonor if they back down, which I see as the least likely scenario.

China could blow up politically at any time. I don't see it lasting politically for more than two or three years. The USA and Europe aren't sitting pretty but if I were an informed Chinese Communist Party official I would be looking for a personal exit strategy.
I do wonder what will happen if President Xi's anti-capitalist rhetoric is more than just that. I think he realized that in a Communist country with a roaring capitalist economy, you are bound to end up with Chinese billionaires. So most of his effort seems to be focused at the top, probably because he fears the power they could accumulate. It will be interesting to see if the capitalist snake can live without a head in China.
 
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chevyontheriver

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I do wonder what will happen if President Xi's anti-capitalist rhetoric is more than just that. I think he realized that in a Communist country with a roaring capitalist economy, you are bound to end up with Chinese billionaires. So most of his effort seems to be focused at the top, probably because he fears the power they could accumulate. It will be interesting to see if the capitalist snake can live without a head in China.
It seems a massive contradiction to have billionaires in a communist country.
 
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chevyontheriver

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I do wonder what will happen if President Xi's anti-capitalist rhetoric is more than just that. I think he realized that in a Communist country with a roaring capitalist economy, you are bound to end up with Chinese billionaires. So most of his effort seems to be focused at the top, probably because he fears the power they could accumulate. It will be interesting to see if the capitalist snake can live without a head in China.
China's recent 'one child' rule has been replaced with a 'two child' rule and now with a 'three child' rule to avoid demographic winter. The 95 million Communist party members are asked in particular to have more children. Of course if you are Uyghur they still want to abort your babies and sterilize you. Anyway, no evidence that plain Chinese folks are suddenly having more children in response to government planning. The trend is still down.

Chinese demographic winter is a slow burn that will have an effect in a generation and not so much in one or two years. And China is not the only country facing demographic winter. South Korea is worse, but the Chinese version is government inflicted via the 'one child' rule. And reversing it will not be so easy.

Sourced in multiple places, well presented here: What happens when the world’s most populous country starts to shrink
 
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