Coronavirus acceleration shows rapid opening states paying heavy price

[Halbhh]

People are used by now to hearing of increasing spread of Coronavirus, so they may not realize what has just happened in the last week or so.

"A new week begins with a grim outlook: More than 100,000 new cases were identified over the weekend.

... Seven states set daily case records. Florida added more infections in a day than any state had previously. ...

The U.S. outbreak — once centered in the densely packed northeastern hubs of New York and New Jersey — is now growing across 39 states, from the worsening hot spots in the South and West to those emerging in the Midwest. ...

As a new week begins, the country’s outlook is exceptionally grim. Case numbers are rising in all but a handful of states. Hospitals are running out of beds. And some of the country’s biggest urban centers — Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, Jacksonville, Fla. — have seen out-of-control growth with few concrete signs of progress.

Coronavirus Live Updates: Bleak Outlook in U.S. as Cases Rise in 39 States

...


Daily new detected cases are from infections that happened usually about 10-20 days earlier. Or very roughly "2 weeks" earlier.

Only significant increases in mask wearing can slow that down.

And if people do significantly increase mask wearing, it will take something like 8-15 days to see that effect in a less big daily increase, or in the most optimistic scenarios, a flattening so that daily new cases stop increasing a lot in a 7-day average. It may be that if it looks to governors/mayors that people won't wear masks well -- wear masks effectively like they do in New York -- then reversing the reopening in those states that skipped steps like Florida and Texas and Arizona will happen.

It's the worst in states that didn't do the steps the CDC and other states like New York, Illinois, and so on followed.

 

[Paulos23]

Only significant increases in mask wearing can slow that down.

I have to add that it is not just mask-wearing but social distancing and washing hands.

We need to do more than we are doing now.

 

[BobRyan]

People are used by now to hearing of increasing spread of Coronavirus, so they may not realize what has just happened in the last week or so.

"A new week begins with a grim outlook: More than 100,000 new cases were identified over the weekend.

... Seven states set daily case records. Florida added more infections in a day than any state had previously. ...

The U.S. outbreak — once centered in the densely packed northeastern hubs of New York and New Jersey — is now growing across 39 states, from the worsening hot spots in the South and West to those emerging in the Midwest. ...

As a new week begins, the country’s outlook is exceptionally grim. Case numbers are rising in all but a handful of states. Hospitals are running out of beds. And some of the country’s biggest urban centers — Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, Jacksonville, Fla. — have seen out-of-control growth with few concrete signs of progress.

Coronavirus Live Updates: Bleak Outlook in U.S. as Cases Rise in 39 States

...


Daily new detected cases are from infections that happened usually about 10-20 days earlier. Or very roughly "2 weeks" earlier.

Only significant increases in mask wearing can slow that down.

And if people do significantly increase mask wearing, it will take something like 8-15 days to see that effect in a less big daily increase, or in the most optimistic scenarios, a flattening so that daily new cases stop increasing a lot in a 7-day average. It may be that if it looks to governors/mayors that people won't wear masks well -- wear masks effectively like they do in New York -- then reversing the reopening in those states that skipped steps like Florida and Texas and Arizona will happen.

It's the worst in states that didn't do the steps the CDC and other states like New York, Illinois, and so on followed.

With hospital stays cut in half on average and drugs to treat the symptoms vastly improved over March and April - and death rates declining or holding the same as increase in infections are reported, and the average age of groups with increasing infection rates plummeting.

U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista

"As of July 13, 2020, there have been around 135,200 deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States. The death rate from COVID-19 in the state of New York is 166 per 100,000 people. New York is the state with the highest number of COVID-19 cases."

Daily deaths related to Covid 19 across the entire planet seems to still be level or possibly a slight up-tic.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 13,113,064 Cases and 572,890 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

=======================

hmmm so that's -

Highest Death Rates by state as of July 13,2020
New Jersey – 175
New York – 166
Connecticut – 122
Mass – 121
Rhode Island – 92
DC – 80
Louisiana – 73
Michigan – 63
Illinois – 58
Maryland – 55
Delaware - 53

 

[Kenny'sID]

With hospital stays cut in half on average and drugs to treat the symptoms vastly improved over March and April - and death rates declining or holding the same as increase in infections are reported, and the average age of groups with increasing infection rates plummeting.

U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista

"As of July 13, 2020, there have been around 135,200 deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States. The death rate from COVID-19 in the state of New York is 166 per 100,000 people. New York is the state with the highest number of COVID-19 cases."

Daily deaths related to Covid 19 across the entire planet seems to still be level or possibly a slight up-tic.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 13,113,064 Cases and 572,890 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

=======================

hmmm so that's -

Highest Death Rates by state as of July 13,2020
New Jersey – 175
New York – 166
Connecticut – 122
Mass – 121
Rhode Island – 92
DC – 80
Louisiana – 73
Michigan – 63
Illinois – 58
Maryland – 55
Delaware - 53

But the lack of gloom and doom in your post kind of takes the fun out of it.

But seriously, thanks for getting real, Bob. I mean isn't good news what we need right now, especially when it's the truth?

 

[dqhall]

People are used by now to hearing of increasing spread of Coronavirus, so they may not realize what has just happened in the last week or so.

"A new week begins with a grim outlook: More than 100,000 new cases were identified over the weekend.

... Seven states set daily case records. Florida added more infections in a day than any state had previously. ...

The U.S. outbreak — once centered in the densely packed northeastern hubs of New York and New Jersey — is now growing across 39 states, from the worsening hot spots in the South and West to those emerging in the Midwest. ...

As a new week begins, the country’s outlook is exceptionally grim. Case numbers are rising in all but a handful of states. Hospitals are running out of beds. And some of the country’s biggest urban centers — Atlanta, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami, Phoenix, Jacksonville, Fla. — have seen out-of-control growth with few concrete signs of progress.

Coronavirus Live Updates: Bleak Outlook in U.S. as Cases Rise in 39 States

...


Daily new detected cases are from infections that happened usually about 10-20 days earlier. Or very roughly "2 weeks" earlier.

Only significant increases in mask wearing can slow that down.

And if people do significantly increase mask wearing, it will take something like 8-15 days to see that effect in a less big daily increase, or in the most optimistic scenarios, a flattening so that daily new cases stop increasing a lot in a 7-day average. It may be that if it looks to governors/mayors that people won't wear masks well -- wear masks effectively like they do in New York -- then reversing the reopening in those states that skipped steps like Florida and Texas and Arizona will happen.

It's the worst in states that didn't do the steps the CDC and other states like New York, Illinois, and so on followed.

Social distancing for at risk patients is important. Masks are not 100% effective. They improved chances of staying healthy. One day not long ago, some Houston hospitals were turning away ambulances. There are about 20 vaccines in human trials. About a hundred more are in other stages of development. Over the weekend there were 250,000 new cases in a day from all over the world.

 

[Halbhh]

With hospital stays cut in half on average and drugs to treat the symptoms vastly improved over March and April - and death rates declining or holding the same as increase in infections are reported, and the average age of groups with increasing infection rates plummeting.

U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista

"As of July 13, 2020, there have been around 135,200 deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States. The death rate from COVID-19 in the state of New York is 166 per 100,000 people. New York is the state with the highest number of COVID-19 cases."

Daily deaths related to Covid 19 across the entire planet seems to still be level or possibly a slight up-tic.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 13,113,064 Cases and 572,890 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

=======================

hmmm so that's -

Highest Death Rates by state as of July 13,2020
New Jersey – 175
New York – 166
Connecticut – 122
Mass – 121
Rhode Island – 92
DC – 80
Louisiana – 73
Michigan – 63
Illinois – 58
Maryland – 55
Delaware - 53

@Kenny'sID
@dqhall
and others :

How the low death rates are temporary. Here's why:

We've known since March that young healthy adults that catch the virus are far less likely to die than older people or people with conditions like diabetes or obesity.

But...over time....they will spread the virus to friends and family.

See? Some of those family members will not be young and healthy.

For those later getting the spread, those in actual danger, it typically takes for example 6 weeks or more for those that will die to be overcome (some longer of course).

Here --
A young healthy person that won't die gets the virus June 1rst.

It takes 10 days for them to get sick enough to get tested. Meantime they spread to other family members back around 1 week in, maybe like June 6-9th for instance.

Some of these also spread it to others. Perhaps on June 15th someone obese or with diabetes or some other thing like a type A blood vulnerability gets that spread, and gets the virus.

It takes this new person also a week to get sick.

But, now it's someone unlike the healthy young adult -- who is instead actual real mortal danger.

See?

So, add 6 weeks to June 15th, and you see the outcome of that young adult that got the virus at a party around June 1rst.

Some will die in August from that June 1rst party attended by someone that will not die.

That's why I'd posted a couple of times it would be August when you see the true outcome of young adults being infected in June.

 

[Halbhh]

But the lack of gloom and doom in your post kind of takes the fun out of it.

But seriously, thanks for getting real, Bob. I mean isn't good news what we need right now, especially when it's the truth?

See post just above. August. August is when we find out what the June spread will do, finally.

There is Good News!

Even though all of us in these bodies are under a 100% mortality rate.

There is still very Good News, for any that believe in Jesus.

 

[dqhall]

@Kenny'sID
@dqhall
and others :

How the low death rates are temporary. Here's why:

We've known since March that young healthy adults that catch the virus are far less likely to die than older people or people with conditions like diabetes or obesity.

But...over time....they will spread the virus to friends and family.

See? Some of those family members will not be young and healthy.

For those later getting the spread, those in actual danger, it typically takes for example 6 weeks or more for those that will die to be overcome (some longer of course).

Here --
A young healthy person that won't die gets the virus June 1rst.

It takes 10 days for them to get sick enough to get tested. Meantime they spread to other family members back around 1 week in, maybe like June 6-9th for instance.

Some of these also spread it to others. Perhaps on June 15th someone obese or with diabetes or some other thing like a type A blood vulnerability gets that spread, and gets the virus.

It takes this new person also a week to get sick.

But, now it's someone unlike the healthy young adult -- who is instead actual real mortal danger.

See?

So, add 6 weeks to June 15th, and you see the outcome of that young adult that got the virus at a party around June 1rst.

Some will die in August from that June 1rst party attended by someone that will not die.

That's why I'd posted a couple of times it would be August when you see the true outcome of young adults being infected in June.

@Kenny'sID
@dqhall
and others :

How the low death rates are temporary. Here's why:

We've known since March that young healthy adults that catch the virus are far less likely to die than older people or people with conditions like diabetes or obesity.

But...over time....they will spread the virus to friends and family.

See? Some of those family members will not be young and healthy.

For those later getting the spread, those in actual danger, it typically takes for example 6 weeks or more for those that will die to be overcome (some longer of course).

Here --
A young healthy person that won't die gets the virus June 1rst.

It takes 10 days for them to get sick enough to get tested. Meantime they spread to other family members back around 1 week in, maybe like June 6-9th for instance.

Some of these also spread it to others. Perhaps on June 15th someone obese or with diabetes or some other thing like a type A blood vulnerability gets that spread, and gets the virus.

It takes this new person also a week to get sick.

But, now it's someone unlike the healthy young adult -- who is instead actual real mortal danger.

See?

So, add 6 weeks to June 15th, and you see the outcome of that young adult that got the virus at a party around June 1rst.

Some will die in August from that June 1rst party attended by someone that will not die.

That's why I'd posted a couple of times it would be August when you see the true outcome of young adults being infected in June.

906 people died of the virus nationwide in the most recent day reported by the CDC.

Standard of care is improving. They have drugs to cure HIV and Hepatitis C. An Ebola vaccine was recently approved. Remdesivir reduced coronavirus hospital stays and improved survival rates. Blood thinners, steroids and prone positioning improved survival rates.

Praise God!

 

[Kenny'sID]

Yes, the young healthy adulta that catch the virus are far less likely to die than older people or people with conditions like diabetes or obesity.

But...over time....they we can l spread the virus to friends and family.

See? Some of those family members will not be young and healthy.

Now add it up --

For those later getting the spread, those in actual danger, it typically takes for example 6 weeks or more for those that will die to be overcome (some longer of course).

So, if you add it up... See yet?

Here --
A young healthy person that won't die gets the virus June 1rst.

It takes 10 days for them to get sick enough to get tested. Meantime they spread to other family members back around 1 week in, maybe like June 6-9th for instance.

Some of these also spread it to others. Perhaps on June 15th someone obese or with diabetes or some other thing like a type A blood vulnerability gets that spread, and gets the virus.

It takes this new person also a week to get sick.

But, now it's someone unlike the healthy young adult -- who is instead actual real mortal danger.

See?

So, add 6 weeks to June 15th, and you see the outcome of that young adult that got the virus at a party around June 1rst.

Some will die in August from that June 1rst party attended by someone that will not die.

That's why I'd posted a couple of times it would be August when you see the true outcome of young adults being infected in June.

@Kenny'sID
@dqhall

Do that many young die?

I'm over 65 and I just stay home. For me the solution is easy, but for those really old and/or handicapped who are dependent on others, that is something beyond their control, and I would be very afraid if I were them.

We mainly need to learn from Cuomo's mistake (and I think we did), and protect the elderly, whatever it takes, till we get a vaccine. Sure, that's not al there is to it but that's basically it.

I didn't really intend to blast your post...that actually wasn't my intent at all, but I admit, that's what happened lol, What can I say, accept my post was really intended for all the junk I see on TV who like to gain attention by making things sound worse than they my be...a sore spot I suppose.

 

[Halbhh]

906 people died of the virus nationwide in the most recent day reported by the CDC.

Standard of care is improving. They have drugs to cure HIV and Hepatitis C. An Ebola vaccine was recently approved. Remdesivir reduced coronavirus hospital stays and improved survival rates. Blood thinners, steroids and prone positioning improved survival rates.

Praise God!

Amen.

A cheap steroid is the first drug shown to reduce death in COVID-19 patients
By Kai KupferschmidtJun. 16, 2020 , 6:20 PM
A cheap steroid is the first drug shown to reduce death in COVID-19 patients

I'm optimistic we won't have those really high death rates of April, because we know much more and are better at treating the severely ill than we were in April.

We have plasma transfusion and Remdesivir (when available), and also steroids (as just above).

That will help.

But it will be August until you or I find out the eventual outcome of the rapid spread in June.

 

[Halbhh]

Do that many young die?

I'm over 65 and I just stay home. For me the solution is easy, but for those really old and/or handicapped who are dependent on others, that is something beyond their control, and I would be very afraid if I were them.

We mainly need to learn from Cuomo's mistake (and I think we did), and protect the elderly, whatever it takes, till we get a vaccine. Sure, that's not al there is to it but that's basically it.

I didn't really intend to blast your post...that actually wasn't my intent at all, but I admit, that's what happened lol, What can I say, accept my post was really intended for all the junk I see on TV who like to gain attention by making things sound worse than they my be...a sore spot I suppose.

Nobody really enjoys the bad news. But with faith we have the best good news, and even the worst bad news doesn't stick anymore to us.

 

[loveofourlord]

There is improvments in death, but it's still spreading faster then before, and hospitalizations still take up space and resources.

 

[Halbhh]

There is improvments in death, but it's still spreading faster then before, and hospitalizations still take up space and resources.

There are very real concerns among health care professionals -- the people that actually know. This virus surprises a lot, and does more damage then we understood a few months ago to survivors. It seems we may have a new strain that spreads more easily. So, we are going to need all of those good tools we've found.

 

[Halbhh]

Another headline further down that page linked in the OP:

Hong Kong closes gyms, cinemas and bans gatherings of more than four people to stem outbreak.

This is somewhat similar, but more dramatic in a way, to the Miami-Dade County Mayor's action:
"In Miami-Dade County, Fla., six hospitals have reached capacity as virus cases spike. The increase in cases caused the mayor there to roll back reopening plans by imposing a curfew and closing restaurants for indoor dining."
(note this action was by the county wide 'mayor', not the local Miami city mayor, but does apply in the city of Miami, and also 33 other cities in the county)

 

[BobRyan]

@Kenny'sID
@dqhall
and others :

How the low death rates are temporary. Here's why:

We've known since March that young healthy adults that catch the virus are far less likely to die than older people or people with conditions like diabetes or obesity.

But...over time....they will spread the virus to friends and family.

See? Some of those family members will not be young and healthy.

But those young adults did not suddenly "acquire relatives" in April or June. That "mix" has been there the entire time.

So it is "the mix" we are watching here

Coronavirus Update (Live): 13,133,971 Cases and 573,267 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

And we see that even as the infection rates were still going up april23-Jun12 -- still the death rates were dropping. That is plenty of time to include the April Spring Break loonies out there on the beaches as they contact all their aging relatives in the months to follow.

Now of course we have the summer break loonies also looking to infect their relatives as well as the jam-packed rioters getting in touch with their own family and friends after the riots.

 

[ArmenianJohn]

With hospital stays cut in half on average and drugs to treat the symptoms vastly improved over March and April - and death rates declining or holding the same as increase in infections are reported, and the average age of groups with increasing infection rates plummeting.

U.S. COVID-19 death rate by state | Statista

"As of July 13, 2020, there have been around 135,200 deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States. The death rate from COVID-19 in the state of New York is 166 per 100,000 people. New York is the state with the highest number of COVID-19 cases."

Daily deaths related to Covid 19 across the entire planet seems to still be level or possibly a slight up-tic.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 13,113,064 Cases and 572,890 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

=======================

hmmm so that's -

Highest Death Rates by state as of July 13,2020
New Jersey – 175
New York – 166
Connecticut – 122
Mass – 121
Rhode Island – 92
DC – 80
Louisiana – 73
Michigan – 63
Illinois – 58
Maryland – 55
Delaware - 53

I'll make sure we revisit these numbers in 6-8 weeks (if not sooner).

 

[Halbhh]

But those young adults did not suddenly "acquire relatives" in April or June. That "mix" has been there the entire time.

So it is "the mix" we are watching here

Coronavirus Update (Live): 13,133,971 Cases and 573,267 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

And we see that even as the infection rates were still going up april23-Jun12 -- still the death rates were dropping. That is plenty of time to include the April Spring Break loonies out there on the beaches as they contact all their aging relatives in the months to follow.

Now of course we have the summer break loonies also looking to infect their relatives as well as the jam-packed rioters getting in touch with their own family and friends after the riots.

Look closer -- the healthy young adults are the main group that went to big parties and bars crowds, more than older people.

Then: 6 weeks. (not 2. not 3. not 4)

It takes at least 6 weeks for most that will be overcome to be overcome.

And it takes a week before that for the healthy young adult to spread it to family members.

Do the adding.

I posted the adding to you above, and tried to make it really short, brief.

 

[Halbhh]

As explained in post #6, we won't see most of main outcome of the June spread until August.

In July, we get only a partial beginning of the effect of June.

 

[Halbhh]

Electrifying at times, this briefing, by the Governor that knows what it takes to overcome the big surge.

(He talks about New York state first, but then all the nation starting at 10:30 in the video; schools starts at 17:45, but many big issues after that) --

Who's in charge of public schools? Answered:

"It's not up to the President of the United States."

The My Child Test --

"I'm not going to ask anyone to put their child into a situation that I would not put my child into... If it's not safe for my child, it's not safe for your child."

 

[Halbhh]

If a mask order is not in place (nationally) then there will be about "45,000 more deaths."

"If all you have to do is have a mask policy and you save 45,000 peoples' lives.... Why on God's green Earth would you not have a mask policy?..."

"What has happened to basic common sense in our leaders?..."

(from the compelling briefing just above from the Governor that knows what it takes to overcome a big surge)