Can we forecast supernova within 100 years?

[timewerx]

Wondering if we have supernova prediction in place accurate to within 100 years?

100 years is enough time to prepare if the effect could threaten billions of lives.

 

[Tinker Grey]

Wondering if we have supernova prediction in place accurate to within 100 years?

100 years is enough time to prepare if the effect could threaten billions of lives.

As far as I know, the only super nova that could affect Earth is the Sun. The consensus is that that won't happen: https://www.quora.com/Will-our-sun-go-supernova-and-what-would-happen-to-our-solar-system

 

[klutedavid]

Wondering if we have supernova prediction in place accurate to within 100 years?

100 years is enough time to prepare if the effect could threaten billions of lives.

I thing the earth being struck by an asteroid is far more likely.

 

[Torah Keeper]

Yeah even if the nearest star explodes, it will be a bright light in the sky at most. Nothing to worry about.

Now if the Sun explodes, Earth would likely vaporize, but I do not believe the sun will ever explode. It's suspiciously stable.

 

[Sabertooth]

Our nearest neighbor [system], Alpha Centauri, is 4.x ly away.
That means everything we observe about it happened 4+ years ago.
(Observed info about more distant stars is even older.)

 

[timewerx]

Yeah even if the nearest star explodes, it will be a bright light in the sky at most. Nothing to worry about.

Now if the Sun explodes, Earth would likely vaporize, but I do not believe the sun will ever explode. It's suspiciously stable.

The thing that worries scientists is the type of supernova that creates laser-like beam of gamma rays and that beam hitting Earth. It can kill billions.

Did Gamma Rays Cause Ordovician Mass Extinction?

 

[Sabertooth]

The thing that worries scientists is the type of supernova that creates laser-like beam of gamma rays and that beam hitting Earth. It can kill billions.

Did Gamma Rays Cause Ordovician Mass Extinction?

A gamma ray burst within about ten thousand light years of Earth would pose a threat to life, Thomas and colleagues estimate.

(I am guessing that said gamma ray burst would move at the speed of light, too...)
If that model is correct, it means that any imminent blast would have occurred 10K years ago.
That limits our ability to predict such.
When we see/detect it, it will already be too late.

 

[timewerx]

(I am guessing that said gamma ray burst would move at the speed of light, too...)
If that model is correct, it means that any imminent blast would have occurred 10K years ago.
That limits our ability to predict such.
When we see/detect it, it will already be too late.

True! But although we can't rely on real-time information because of huge lag (information can only travel at the speed of light), we can still see the precursors before this beam of extinction hits.

We would still see things like the starlight reaching our telescopes fluctuating in brightness.

I guess the BIG question is, do we actually have knowledge or experience of these precursors or signs before a star explodes into a supernova? Or is it all just theory, like it can just happen and it will catch completely surprised?

 

[Sabertooth]

Unless God uses such to fulfill last-days' plagues, I don't see it as a likely threat.

 

[dqhall]

Wondering if we have supernova prediction in place accurate to within 100 years?

100 years is enough time to prepare if the effect could threaten billions of lives.

One probable turn of events is the sun becomes a red giant boiling away the oceans. It is worse than the current global warming.
https://phys.org/news/2015-02-sun-wont-die-billion-years.html

 

[durangodawood]

Yeah even if the nearest star explodes, it will be a bright light in the sky at most. Nothing to worry about.

Now if the Sun explodes, Earth would likely vaporize, but I do not believe the sun will ever explode. It's suspiciously stable.

Why "suspiciously"?

 

[klutedavid]

Wondering if we have supernova prediction in place accurate to within 100 years?

100 years is enough time to prepare if the effect could threaten billions of lives.

There are so many possible causes for a mass extinction event. I have underlined your gamma ray burst event. The actual list is longer than the list below.

Mass Extinction Events

Flood basalt events
Sea-level falls
Impact events
Global cooling
Global warming
Clathrate gun hypothesis
Anoxic events
Hydrogen sulfide emissions from the seas
Oceanic overturn
A nearby nova, supernova or gamma ray burst
Geomagnetic reversal
Plate tectonics
Other hypotheses
(wiki)

 

[klutedavid]

True! But although we can't rely on real-time information because of huge lag (information can only travel at the speed of light), we can still see the precursors before this beam of extinction hits.

We would still see things like the starlight reaching our telescopes fluctuating in brightness.

I guess the BIG question is, do we actually have knowledge or experience of these precursors or signs before a star explodes into a supernova? Or is it all just theory, like it can just happen and it will catch completely surprised?

I have seen many theories regarding extinction events and their causes. If you look a bit deeper, sometimes, certain scientists are pursuing funding for their research. That said, the probability of some of these extinction events actually occurring are very remote.

A gamma ray burst from a supernova causing a mass extinction event, would have a very low probability of occurring.

Four events that could be considered as likely mass extinction events. Would be nuclear war, climate change, a super volcanic eruption, and an asteroid impact. Any of these four events
have a much higher probability of taking place.

 

[Lost4words]

Anything can happen at anytime. Be prepared....love God, believe in God, follow the narrow path!

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

I have seen many theories regarding extinction events and their causes. If you look a bit deeper, sometimes, certain scientists are pursuing funding for their research. That said, the probability of some of these extinction events actually occurring are very remote.

A gamma ray burst from a supernova causing a mass extinction event, would have a very low probability of occurring.

Four events that could be considered as likely mass extinction events. Would be nuclear war, climate change, a super volcanic eruption, and an asteroid impact. Any of these four events
have a much higher probability of taking place.

Thanks, that's reassuring

 

[Subduction Zone]

One probable turn of events is the sun becomes a red giant boiling away the oceans. It is worse than the current global warming.
https://phys.org/news/2015-02-sun-wont-die-billion-years.html

That may take a little while

 

[klutedavid]

Thanks, that's reassuring

Think nothing of it.

 

[sjastro]

One of my hobbies is to take pictures of things that might ultimately destroy us.
Eta Carinae.

Fact or Fiction?: The Explosive Death of Eta Carinae Will Cause a Mass Extinction

 

[Shemjaza]

There are so many possible causes for a mass extinction event. I have underlined your gamma ray burst event. The actual list is longer than the list below.

Mass Extinction Events

Flood basalt events
Sea-level falls
Impact events
Global cooling
Global warming
Clathrate gun hypothesis
Anoxic events
Hydrogen sulfide emissions from the seas
Oceanic overturn
A nearby nova, supernova or gamma ray burst
Geomagnetic reversal
Plate tectonics
Other hypotheses
(wiki)

I think Geomagnetic reversals don't line up with any significant mass extinctions.

 

[klutedavid]

I think Geomagnetic reversals don't line up with any significant mass extinctions.

I had a look at geomagnetic reversals and I agree. Wiki may need to remove that one from the list.