- Dec 20, 2003
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The North Korean regime has a lot to gain by achieving the capability to reach the US with their missiles, but very little to gain by launching a random attack on an American city.
Not only, would the US most likely shoot their missiles down, long before they cross the ocean, but more importantly, it would be wishing total annihilation upon itself. Even China would declare war on them, probably be the first to nuke them too. North Korean leaders obviously know they can't take on the US and expect to win, so they won't. Doesn't mean they don't want the bragging rights that comes with the "theoretical" ability to strike you, if they wanted/needed to.
Their missile program is for self-preservation purposes only. They want the ability to promise plenty collateral damage, in order to minimize the risk of invasion. And they can deliver plenty of damage to South Korea, Japan, and even China, if China turns on them. And you really can't rule out the US completely once they reach that milestone.
The US's recent aggression is therefor dangerous and unnecessary in my opinion. There's no point "saving" the north Korean people, if nothing but rubble remains once it's done.
Getting rid of their nuclear programme without regime change or reunification being on the table is an achievable goal and especially with Chinese support. But if the regime has set their hearts on keeping this programme then more violent measures might be necessary. The thing with this regime is that there is no guarantee of the sanity you assume remaining in charge of the nuclear weapons. Once they have reached a certain capacity there is no guarantee that they will not use it. There have already been incidents with lesser weapons so why would they show any restraint when they have an even greater capacity. Right now there is a reasonable chance of winning a military confrontation and at very least taking out their launch capabilities , research facilities and main launch centres. Later that might not be so easy. It may well cost lives to intervene now, but how many millions will die later if there is no intervention. Smells like one of those Neville Chamberlain goes to Munich moments.
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