Are creationists dwindling in number?

[pitabread]

Traditional American creationist beliefs have always been in the 40-50% range. I decided to look up some Gallup polls to see where things stand and per their most recent poll on the subject, it looks like creationist beliefs are falling:

The percentage of U.S. adults who believe that God created humans in their present form at some time within the last 10,000 years or so -- the strict creationist view -- has reached a new low. Thirty-eight percent of U.S. adults now accept creationism, while 57% believe in some form of evolution -- either God-guided or not -- saying man developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life.

- In US, Belief in Creationist View of Humans at New Low

This particular poll didn't include any demographics based on ages. Age-based demographics are always interesting since it can predict how things will likely trend in the future.

A prior 2014 Gallup poll did include age-based demographics (In U.S., 42% Believe Creationist View of Human Origins). The breakdown of strict YECist beliefs (that God made humans < 10,000 years ago) were as follows:

• Age 18-29 - 28%
• Age 30-49 - 46%
• Age 50-64 - 44%
• Age 65+ - 50%

For ages 30+ creationist beliefs remained in that 44-50% range, but there was sharp drop off for younger folk between 18 to 29. And given that the oldest demographic, 65+, has the higher % of that belief, this suggests that as the generations shift (i.e. the older people die), the trend will be to a lower overall belief in creationism.

edited to add:

Here is another article on the subject referencing a Pew Research Center poll that points to a similar trend:

According to a recent Pew Research Center report, 73 percent of American adults younger than 30 expressed some sort of belief in evolution, a jump from 61 percent in 2009, the first year in which the question was asked. The number who believed in purely secular evolution (that is, not directed by any divine power) jumped from 40 percent to a majority of 51 percent. In other words, if you ask a younger American how humans arose, you’re likely to get an answer that has nothing to do with God.

Evolution Is Finally Winning Out Over Creationism, Especially Among the Young

 

[mark kennedy]

Theistic Evolutionists and Creationists appear to be tied. I've been following the poll for years, yes obviously they are declining significantly. It seems pretty obvious now that more Christians are taking more of a Theistic Evolutionist view these days. At least Atheistic Evolution has held static for the last few years. Fascinating statistics, thanks for the update.

Grace and peace,
Mark

 

[yeshuaslavejeff]

As written in Scripture: the wicked will be more wicked.
And again: it will be (is) as in the days of NOAH. (wickedness filling the earth full to where it cannot hold any more wickedness, the evil is so great)

All according to Plan, Perfectly, as YHWH Breathed His Word thousands of years ago through the men called and chosen by Him.

 

[bhsmte]

Traditional American creationist beliefs have always been in the 40-50% range. I decided to look up some Gallup polls to see where things stand and per their most recent poll on the subject, it looks like creationist beliefs are falling:

- In US, Belief in Creationist View of Humans at New Low

This particular poll didn't include any demographics based on ages. Age-based demographics are always interesting since it can predict how things will likely trend in the future.

A prior 2014 Gallup poll did include age-based demographics (In U.S., 42% Believe Creationist View of Human Origins). The breakdown of strict YECist beliefs (that God made humans < 10,000 years ago) were as follows:

• Age 18-29 - 28%
• Age 30-49 - 46%
• Age 50-64 - 44%
• Age 65+ - 50%

For ages 30+ creationist beliefs remained in that 44-50% range, but there was sharp drop off for younger folk between 18 to 29. And given that the oldest demographic, 65+, has the higher % of that belief, this suggests that as the generations shift (i.e. the older people die), the trend will be to a lower overall belief in creationism.

edited to add:

Here is another article on the subject referencing a Pew Research Center poll that points to a similar trend:


Evolution Is Finally Winning Out Over Creationism, Especially Among the Young

You can only keep well evidenced reality suppressed for so long. Education, is the Kryponite, of biblical creationist beliefs.

 

[pitabread]

You can only keep well evidenced reality suppressed for so long. Education, is the Kryponite, of biblical creationist beliefs.

Which seems especially true given the relative belief in creationism based on educational background.

 

[bhsmte]

Which seems especially true given the relative belief in creationism based on educational background.

You bet, it is crystal clear.

 

[mark kennedy]

You can only keep well evidenced reality suppressed for so long. Education, is the Kryponite, of biblical creationist beliefs.

Not in my experience.

 

[HereIStand]

Which seems especially true given the relative belief in creationism based on educational background.

Being known as creationist in a scientific field could harm one's career. Creationists working in those fields have to tread lightly. Beyond this though, Christians tend to be fewer in number, as educational levels progress. Or as one evangelical pastor noted, one call tell a church where a sermon on the devil might be heard by the number of pick-up trucks in the parking lot.

 

[agapebondservant]

No need to be alarmed ... I have read the last chapter of the book and all ends well. I personaly do not think referencing the age of the world to a 10,000 year period is helpful at all. Read the pdf file I have uploaded and let me know your opinion.

 

[AV1611VET]

The tares are outgrowing the wheat -- just as predicted.

Matthew 13:25 But while men slept, his enemy came and sowed tares among the wheat, and went his way.

We need to wake up and smell the tares.

 

[juvenissun]

• Age 18-29 - 28%
• Age 30-49 - 46%
• Age 50-64 - 44%
• Age 65+ - 50%

I see the conversion of young people into Creationists as they grew older. Don't you?

 

[Seejer]

I see the conversion of young people into Creationists as they grew older. Don't you?

That is certainly one - although obviously wrong - way to look at those statistics.

 

[juvenissun]

That is certainly one - although obviously wrong - way to look at those statistics.

I don't see why is it "obvious Wrong". It seems to be obviously correct.

 

[Warden_of_the_Storm]

I don't see why is it "obvious Wrong". It seems to be obviously correct.

No it's not. It shows that the older generation still alive are the ones who are largely holding on to Creationist beliefs while the younger generations are not.

 

[Seejer]

Warden explained it , but I graded your original comment funny so it was by no means a total loss.

 

[mark kennedy]

The tares are outgrowing the wheat -- just as predicted.

Matthew 13:25 But while men slept, his enemy came and sowed tares among the wheat, and went his way.

We need to wake up and smell the tares.

Well religion itself is on the decline, at least numberically. With the full court press at every level of education it's remarkable that over 1/3 of Americans still maintain evangelical conviction.

 

[pitabread]

I see the conversion of young people into Creationists as they grew older. Don't you?

If the relative level of belief in creationism remained constant over time, then you might have something there. However, the relative level of belief in creationism has been clearly declining (as Gallup's own numbers show), and coupled with an age-based breakdown suggests a demographic shift is occurring.

I also looked up a couple more polls, these done by the Pew Research group.

From 2005 (Public Divided on Origins of Life), the % of people who believed humans were created in their present form:

• < 30 - 37%
• 30-49 - 40%
• 50-64 - 44%
• 65+ - 50%

Meanwhile, by 2013 (Public’s Views on Human Evolution):

• 18-29 - 27%
• 30-49 - 33%
• 50-64 - 35%
• 65+ - 36%

Rather than conversion as people get older, the data supports that younger people are less likely to be creationists and those beliefs are carrying over as they age. Consequently, the overall pool of creationists is declining.

 

[mark kennedy]

If the relative level of belief in creationism remained constant over time, then you might have something there. However, the relative level of belief in creationism has been clearly declining (as Gallup's own numbers show), and coupled with an age-based breakdown suggests a demographic shift is occurring.

I also looked up a couple more polls, these done by the Pew Research group.

From 2005 (Public Divided on Origins of Life), the % of people who believed humans were created in their present form:

• < 30 - 37%
• 30-49 - 40%
• 50-64 - 44%
• 65+ - 50%

Meanwhile in, 2013 (Public’s Views on Human Evolution):

• 18-29 - 27%
• 30-49 - 33%
• 50-64 - 35%
• 65+ - 36%

Rather than conversion as people get older, the data supports that younger people are less likely to be creationists and those beliefs are carrying over as they age. Consequently, the overall pool of creationists is declining.

That has fluctuated over the course of the poll, I think the average for the creationist view is between 42% and 44%. What has nearly doubled is the atheistic view having gone from 11% to 19% and remained static for the last few years. One thing seems clear from the poll, theistic evolution is gaining popularity.

It's worth noting it's unclear how Intelligent Design proponents might identify their views. They generally don't challenge human/chimpanzee common ancestry.

 

[Lily of Valleys]

The tares are outgrowing the wheat -- just as predicted.

Matthew 13:25 But while men slept, his enemy came and sowed tares among the wheat, and went his way.

We need to wake up and smell the tares.

Yes, there are many who enter through the wide gate and few who find the narrow gate.

 

[pitabread]

That has fluctuated over the course of the poll, I think the average for the creationist view is between 42% and 44%.

There is an error margin with respect to the poll numbers so point-to-point isn't necessarily as useful to see a trend. I did a 3-point moving average (non-weighted) of that Gallup data between 1993 and 2017 and that more clearly shows a downward trend in creationist beliefs.

Coupled with some of the other data (like the Pew Research data) and creationist beliefs seem to be the on the decline.