1% [now 2.0%] of the entire US population has tested positive for COVID-19

[essentialsaltes]

Per Worldometers, the US has just passed the threshold of 10,000 cases per million in the country as a whole. This is equivalent to 1% of the entire population.

Looking at individual state cases per capita, it's topped by NY and NJ, the deepest epicenter from months ago.

#3 is Louisiana, which also had an early outbreak, and is one of the few states where it can really be said they had a first wave that subsided, and now (alas) a second wave rising.

#4 is Arizona, which burst onto the scene quite recently.

Also in the 1% club are RI, MA, DC, CT, DE, IL, MD, MS, FL, IA, GA, NE, SC, AL. Of these, Florida has the largest population, but it's still alarming that the state has once again added more than 10,000 cases in a day.

In terms of deaths, NJ, NY, CT and MA have each exceeded 0.1%. Not that 0.1% of people who got COVID-19 died, but that 0.1% of the entire state population has died of COVID-19.

--

Comparing to other countries, the US ranks about #7 in per capita cases and deaths among countries with more than a million people.

Cases
#1 Qatar
#2 Bahrain
#3 Chile
#4 Kuwait
#5 Oman
#6 Armenia
#7 US
With Peru and Panama nipping at our heels.

Deaths
#1 Belgium
#2 UK
#3 Spain
#4 Italy
#5 Sweden
#6 France
#7 US

Total cases in the US has exceeded 3.2 million. It was 1.6 million on May 22, about 50 days ago. The doubling time from 1.4M to 2.8M cases took 53 days. Doubling times getting shorter means it's not just going up. It's not just going up exponentially. The exponential is getting even steeper.

 

[JohnDB]

Well... when we think about those who are lying....
China and Iran are probably in the top ten too.

And I think that your numbers are needing fact checked.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Well... when we think about those who are lying....
China and Iran are probably in the top ten too.

And I think that your numbers are needing fact checked.

that they are too high or too low?

 

[Nithavela]

I knew you could do it. I'm so proud of you.

 

[essentialsaltes]

And I think that your numbers are needing fact checked.

Very broooaaadddly speaking, they are consistent with the data collected by Johns Hopkins, which seem to be pretty carefully done (but harder to analyze per capita).

 

[JohnDB]

that they are too high or too low?

Not 10,000 per million....

Ooops... maybe it's my math that's screwy...

My bad...

Carry on.

 

[hedrick]

That’s based on 10% of the population being tested. In the early days only sick people were tested. It we now have broader testing. If the same positivity applies to the whole population, it’s more like 10% of the whole population positive. Still not enough for herd immunity.

 

[renniks]

Yeah, if more people get tested, more are gonna test positive obviously. But most of them have no symptoms.

 

[JohnDB]

That’s based on 10% of the population being tested. In the early days only sick people were tested. It we now have broader testing. If the same positivity applies to the whole population, it’s more like 10% of the whole population positive. Still not enough for herd immunity.

Actually they are saying that the numbers are even higher than that.

Some areas are at 65% and higher...of course not all are sick. It's an antibody indicator test...which isn't that accurate because of the sensitivity and the specific antibodies it tests for.

Sewage tests are confirming that the actual infection rate is really high.

I have no idea when and how this thing will end. There's hope for an antibody cure this late summer/early Fall.

Herd immunity isn't going to work... re-infection rates are really high.

 

[sfs]

Herd immunity isn't going to work... re-infection rates are really high.

Where are you getting that from? As far as I know, all the evidence is that people who test positive again after being negative do not represent re-infections.

 

[Ken-1122]

Per Worldometers, the US has just passed the threshold of 10,000 cases per million in the country as a whole. This is equivalent to 1% of the entire population.

10,000 cases does not mean 10,000 people. People who test positive are tested multiple times, each time they are tested is a separate case.

 

[lasthero]

10,000 cases does not mean 10,000 people. People who test positive are tested multiple times, each time they are tested is a separate case.

That seems like a strange way of counting things. Where are you getting that from?

 

[Ken-1122]

That seems like a strange way of counting things. Where are you getting that from?

(under about the data)
The number of positive tests in a state is not equal to the number of cases, as one person may be tested more than once.
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

 

[JohnDB]

Where are you getting that from? As far as I know, all the evidence is that people who test positive again after being negative do not represent re-infections.

Right here...

Between 1-10% of those previously sick with this virus are actually immune from re-infection...your system doesn't like making these antibodies for some reason.
It also means that most likely any vaccine will be ineffectual for a vast majority of the population.

Studies Report Rapid Loss of COVID-19 Antibodies

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

It also means that most likely any vaccine will be ineffectual for a vast majority of the population.

From your own link

“These reports highlight the need to develop strong vaccines, because immunity that develops naturally during infection is suboptimal and short-lived in most people,” Akiko Iwasaki, a viral immunologist at Yale University who was not involved in either study, tells The New York Times. “We cannot rely on natural infection to achieve herd immunity.”

So clearly they do not see vaccines being ineffective merely that said vaccines need to be strong.

Whatever that means in medical sense.

As always more research is needed.

 

[Nithavela]

That’s based on 10% of the population being tested. In the early days only sick people were tested. It we now have broader testing. If the same positivity applies to the whole population, it’s more like 10% of the whole population positive. Still not enough for herd immunity.

You know the funny thing about herd immunity, it only works when 70% get the thing and then are immune, but then get well BEFORE infecting someone.

It's not like at 70% of people infected, the virus just "magically disappears". If you can't get the numbers down, then you choose option B: virtually everyone gets infected.

 

[KCfromNC]

Yeah, if more people get tested, more are gonna test positive obviously. But most of them have no symptoms.

Is this actually true?

 

[JohnDB]

From your own link

“These reports highlight the need to develop strong vaccines, because immunity that develops naturally during infection is suboptimal and short-lived in most people,” Akiko Iwasaki, a viral immunologist at Yale University who was not involved in either study, tells The New York Times. “We cannot rely on natural infection to achieve herd immunity.”

So clearly they do not see vaccines being ineffective merely that said vaccines need to be strong.

Whatever that means in medical sense.

As always more research is needed.

Ever had a hepatitis B vaccine?
It's a series of three injections...each worse than the last. (Month spacing in between) And you feel like dirt for a week afterwards...
If successful, it would likely be something along those lines.

That's not feasible for 330 million people.

And about 6% of the population can't produce sufficient antibodies to survive infection...they won't from a vaccine either. Vaccines aren't magic, they work off your existing limbic system.

They can produce synthetic antibodies that last a long time...one small injection.
They are produced in special mice and vats...and these can be given to people on a massive scale.
Kinda unique and sci-fi IMHO.
This would give us the immunity for a while and cure those who are sick.

But remember it's not going to go away...

For whatever reason cats are carriers...so is that other critter (not bats...I can't remember the name) but they are everywhere in Europe and Asia.
So this isn't going to go anywhere for a long long time.
And we'll need something to help us survive this thing.

 

[hedrick]

There are also signs that immunity is not entirely based on antibodies, so people could be immune even though antibodies decline. As always, things are complex. Covid-19 Immunity May Rely on a Microscopic Helper: T Cells

 

[hedrick]

I have two nightmare scenarios. One is that no vaccine works. But the other is that one works but not enough people take it for it to be effective.