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I must confess before any more oprobium is heaped on Glenn that I am responsible for most of the bad stuff in this thread, not Glenn. Why? Well, becaue I am Thaumaturgy. I know this is the worst thing in the discussion world to use a "sock puppet" and for that I should be beaten severely...

I'm in no small part responsible for that debate going on and on and on :) (And considering I read that "prediction post" as well, I've definitely biased the results and made it self-fulfilling by engaging in and continuing the debate...so you can't really blame Mr. Morton for that.) (But I'm...

Not necessarily. With sufficient data it is possible to narrow the confidence intervals around a mean difference that is significantly more constrained than just the standard deviation. And until we get perfect measurement then we will always be left with statistics. The physical...

An interesting example: I generated a data set today using some statistics software. It is made up of 10 sample sets. Each is a random-normal data set (it was generated randomly to have a normal distribution around a given mean and standard deviation). In this case each data set differs by...

How much error is too much error? I have shown now several times that the standard deviation can be up to 6 times the difference in two populations and statistical methods, given sufficient data points, can still differentiate it. I will grant that very noisy data will, indeed, have poor...

That doesn't sound like the way NASA applies homogenization:

From what I've been able to determine they are taking data in places that may suffer urban heat island effects and adjusting the data base on nearby rural and more well sited stations. NASA itself says this about the homogeneity adjustment: Data @ NASA GISS: GISTEMP: Sources Documentation...

This is intriguing. Could you explain what, exactly, the homogeneity filter does? What are the inputs? What is the formula for the filter? Editted to add: I just found this from NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/sources/gistemp.html That seems reasonable enough actually. That taken...

It is clearly not a good place to measure data and would likely result in bad data. Again thankfully the entire data set is averaged over a larger scale so this station would likely be in the error term. :) (I thought some earlier posts here had discussed NOAA's efforts to show that the "70...

Well, then how much error would you allow? Remember, I've now shown that with normal distributions I can easily differentiate (using statistics) means that differ by 1 unit while the standard deviations are 6 times higher than that difference. That is, as far as I can tell, the true power of...

No, anything but. All data has errors. Only understanding those errors can allow us to draw any meaningful conclusions about it. And only statistics allows us to understand those errors. All data has errors. Perhaps one morning Joe the Temperature reader went to the station to record the...

More Fun! Here's two more data sets each only have 50 data points, each has a standard deviation = 6 and one has a mean of 18.7 and one a mean of 22. Here's the two histograms overlain: I ran the t-test here's the results: data: data1 and data2 t = -3.1196, df = 98, p-value = 0.002379...

Here's a Flexing of the T-test muscle. let's take two data sets with 200 samples each. Data1 has a mean = 20 and standard dev = 6 Data2 has a mean = 21 and standard dev = 6 The t-test is very powerful and can find the difference even in this smaller data set: Two Sample t-test data...

Oh I am most assuredly not leaving! I am enjoying the statistics and discussion of data! I hope I have not given you that impression by my posts!

Unfortunately this is data we are discussing. It has always been data we are discussing. Remember, you were so happy when I first posted a histogram and started discussing the data. Well, this is discussing the data. From the scientists I've met this is precisely how data is dealt with...

This is data. Talking about data requires talk about statistics. I have clearly and repeatedly explained what I think about these gradients whether they are real or not. And 20 degree temperature differences are relatively rare in this data set. In the case of the two Iowa stations it...

Mr. Morton, can I ask why you doggedly insist everyone address every single point you make in detail, while you seem to go right by others' points? For instance you have now claimed on a couple of occasions the following: I addressed that point with examples and calculations now twice...

Please, Mr. Morton, I have addressed that issue now a couple of times. I am unsure how my explanation has failed to resonate with you but I will reiterate it: Data has errors. Sometimes those errors are human, sometimes those errors are instrumental. That's why data has distributions. I...

That's where the histogram of differences comes in handy! Take a look back at the histogram in the earlier post. I would gladly take a look at something more than your suspicion. I think I have more than amply addressed the point here: http://www.christianforums.com/t7394133-20/#post52756778...

When I did the chi squared tests. When I did the histograms I needed to download all the data. (That's why the histograms were as large as they were.) MY first post in this thread used downloaded data, complete sets. So I've been downloading the full sets from the start here. Agreed. If I...