Ex Pres Trump calls for protest if arrested

Landon Caeli said:

Campaign money is given to help “win” the election. Hushing up someone who likes to gossip helps with the winning, and that’s not immoral, at all. It’s not wrong in any way.

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You’re defending something that Michael Cohen has already been convicted of?
(It’s already been established as a “crime”, “Individual One” is going to get charged now too, it would appear.)

SimplyMe said:

It is somewhat complex but, ignoring the part played by the Enquirer (that was passing information of women coming forward to publish stories about their affairs with Donald Trump), the key part is that Trump's Lawyer, Micheal Cohen, paid money from his own pocket in October of 2016 to Stormy Daniels to prevent her from publishing her story. Because they money came from Cohen's own funds, it is considered an illegal campaign contribution (well over the $2,700 limit for individuals to donate to a campaign). Micheal Cohen pled guilty to this crime, as well as others, while Trump was still President.

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Why would that be considered as a "campaign contribution"?

Ana the Ist said:

Why would that be considered as a "campaign contribution"?

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Because it was done to help his campaign, or more specifically, to keep a potential story from hurting his campaign.

iluvatar5150 said:

idk... Granted, I'm not a political strategist, but I would think that having Trump in the race would be a net benefit for Democrats. From what I understand, nasty primary fights tend to disadvantage a party once they get to the general election. Trump lost two popular votes in a row and arguably weighed down the Republicans in 2022. I'm not confident that the impeachments or any potential prosecutions help Dem chances in an election more than they would make Dems look petty and turn Trump into a martyr, whereas I suspect letting Trump act like a clown and dump all over his Republican opponents for the next 2 years would be almost entirely positive.

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That's all contingent on the other side not shooting themselves in the foot.

I'd like to think that Trump wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning should he get the GOP nomination. But if people get disgruntled with "the establishment" enough, there's a chance they'll vote for anyone they see as a bulwark against it.

I think of what Russell Brand (albeit, he can be obnoxious and tough to listen to in a lot of cases) said about Brexit. The Brits (who in many ways are more level headed than Americans - as a whole) got disgruntled enough with what they saw as "elitism" and "ruling class doesn't care about us", that, when they saw a button that said "middle finger to the ruling class" (he used different words), they pressed it without fully thinking it through, which led to "Regrexit"

We saw a lot of that in the 2016 election. The Obama-Trump voters and the Sanders-Trump voters highlighted the fact that there's a significant number of people in this country who (while maybe well-intentioned, but slightly misguided) have lost a lot of faith in "normal" politicians, and were willing to hitch their wagon to anyone, so long as it's "something different, because what we've been doing isn't working"...even if those folks had very little in common in terms of policy.

Aldebaran said:

No different than paying to run a campaign ad on TV to help his campaign. Politicians do that all the time. It's called "running for office".

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Exactly. Which is why his trying to hide it and failing to report it as such is being investigated.

Pommer said:

You’re defending something that Michael Cohen has already been convicted of?
(It’s already been established as a “crime”, “Individual One” is going to get charged now too, it would appear.)

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It sounds like Cohen "pled guilty" to the crime...so the state didn't have to prove its case.

Glancing back at the case, it seems likely this was part of a deal that resulted in other charges being dropped.

Maybe you aren't familiar with the way law works, but unless they're charging Trump with some sort of conspiracy charges related to the case...and it seems awfully late for that....they'll have to prove a whole new case against Trump.

The question is, will the Proud Boys be standing by on Tuesday?

(I guess the ones in prison will be standing down)

iluvatar5150 said:

Allegedly, his hush money payment was made to support/bolster his presidential campaign, which makes it a campaign contribution. Campaign contributions have to be reported, which this wasn't.

Campaign finance stuff has always struck me as a category of offenses that garner more attention and harsher punishments than I would've otherwise expected. He'd hardly be the first politician to get prosecuted for something like this. Here’s another thread about a different pol getting busted for something similar:

Tennessee State Senator Brian Kelsey not seeking re-election

@BrianKelsey I will not be running for reelection due to a recent, exciting change to my personal life, and I look forward to spending more time with my family. @FoxNews Senator Brian Kelsey not seeking re-election, faces charges for campaign finance violation

www.christianforums.com

Aren't there multiple independent prosecutors exploring options for charging him? idk why campaign finance charges would preclude anybody going after him for anything related to Jan 6.

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Well, let me put it to you like this...

In short, the answer is "no". Regarding January 6th...it seems they're done doing all they can do. In fact, the release of video footage has led to accusations of withholding key evidence and fabrication of evidence against investigators. If they had something to charge Trump with...they would have by now. They know basically everything he said and did leading up to Jan 6th, the day of Jan 6th, and the days after Jan 6th. I'd say I'm about 99% confident that they don't have anything to go on. The only reason I'd give 1% to the possibility I'm wrong is that the Democratic Party could literally be sitting on something until early 2024 or late 2023 to try and ruin his chances of running. It's at least possible. When a federal prosecutor spends this much time "exploring options" he doesn't have anything....he's simply under pressure to find something, and given that officially closing the case would give people reason to believe Trump is innocent, the case will probably just remain open indefinitely in hopes of new evidence that isn't coming. At the rate things are going, they'll be lucky if the convictions they have currently aren't all overturned.

As for raid...it's easily the most egg on this administration's face since leaving Afghanistan (and most people don't understand how bad that actually was). There's really less there to charge him with than Biden. Let's just start with the fact that there's been plenty of time to both review documents and go through all his communications to find out if he shared anything illegally. If he had...that's it...he'd be behind bars the rest of his life. No reason to wait.

A lot of people have been focuses on "intent" in regards to the documents and they think the distinguishing difference is whether or not someone "intended" to take them or not. We can say that Trump definitely intended to take the documents...but since he was president when he did so, he's allowed to. That's the main hurdle for prosecution.

Biden on the other hand, had absolutely no right to take classified docs when he did. People can certainly think he's simply mentally enfeebled and forgot he had them....but that's still mishandling of classified docs, and carries with it serious penalties that can include jail time. Essentially, they can't go after Trump for this without it biting them hard on Biden’s reelection.

As for your comments about strategy....I agree, I don't know if Trump is going to hurt Democrats or Republicans more. I think they don't really know either...because the biggest problem the Democrats have is a complete lack of candidates. Newsome seems like a pipe dream...and the worse California gets, the worse he looks. He's on that list of politicians breaking their own covid lockdown rules. He's in a state that's literally sinking into crime, homelessness, and job loss due to businesses abandoning it. California is seen as one of the sources of the least popular curriculum changes in public schools in decades. Running Newsome seems unlikely. I don't think I need to talk about Harris. I think most people are glad she failed to win the nomination for president in 2020. As for Biden...it doesn't seem like the Democratic Party even wants him anymore but they may have to run him. They may not have a choice. Who else can they field? Losing Trump may help the Republicans more than it helps the Democrats....but even if it doesn't, they still have a big problem come 2024.

ThatRobGuy said:

That's all contingent on the other side not shooting themselves in the foot.

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I go into every election assuming that Dems are going to blow it somehow. Sometimes I’m lucky and am proven wrong. But regardless of the Dems’ campaign competence, I’d expect them to do better against the winner of the cage match between Clown Trump, Desantis, and Haley than they would against Desantis being boosted by Martyr Trump who’s ruling the party in exile from his jail cell.

I'd like to think that Trump wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning should he get the GOP nomination. But if people get disgruntled with "the establishment" enough, there's a chance they'll vote for anyone they see as a bulwark against it.

I think of what Russell Brand (albeit, he can be obnoxious and tough to listen to in a lot of cases) said about Brexit. The Brits (who in many ways are more level headed than Americans - as a whole) got disgruntled enough with what they saw as "elitism" and "ruling class doesn't care about us", that, when they saw a button that said "middle finger to the ruling class" (he used different words), they pressed it without fully thinking it through, which led to "Regrexit"

We saw a lot of that in the 2016 election. The Obama-Trump voters and the Sanders-Trump voters highlighted the fact that there's a significant number of people in this country who (while maybe well-intentioned, but slightly misguided) have lost a lot of faith in "normal" politicians, and were willing to hitch their wagon to anyone, so long as it's "something different, because what we've been doing isn't working"...even if those folks had very little in common in terms of policy.

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But we already went down that path in 2016 and at this point, even his own party is getting sick of him.

iluvatar5150 said:

I go into every election assuming that Dems are going to blow it somehow. Sometimes I’m lucky and am proven wrong. But regardless of the Dems’ campaign competence, I’d expect them to do better against the winner of the cage match between Clown Trump, Desantis, and Haley than they would against Desantis being boosted by Martyr Trump who’s ruling the party in exile from his jail cell.

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It's possible...I certainly understand why you see it that way.

iluvatar5150 said:

But we already went down that path in 2016 and at this point, even his own party is getting sick of him.

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"We went down this path already" doesn't really account for the fact that nothing was resolved. The sentiment by my estimation isn't merely the same....it's growing. I think it's the cause of the far left actors getting elected as well as the far right actors.

Ana the Ist said:

"We went down this path already" doesn't really account for the fact that nothing was resolved. The sentiment by my estimation isn't merely the same....it's growing. I think it's the cause of the far left actors getting elected as well as the far right actors.

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People may still want to stick it to the elites, but more people now realize just what kind of an incompetent, undisciplined, self-dealing huckster Trump is and how utterly nutty his fanbase is. That wasn’t the case in 2016 when even I thought a lot of his schtick was a put on for the cameras and that, once in office, he’d settle down a bit into something more like what Desantis is now.

If you do not protest you sell the future of your children it seems best is there another Christian running to seek to do same as trump ? and also is wrong for the nation to allow this evil that if allowed could cause land to be punished as wrong to allow evil bible says let all who are unjustly prisoners go free the land can be punished if not now will be in future if it does not seek to correct wrong but those who repent be saved but land still punished.

iluvatar5150 said:

People may still want to stick it to the elites, but more people now realize just what kind of an incompetent, undisciplined, self-dealing huckster Trump

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Uh huh.

I don't think he was a good president....I'd certainly agree he had a bad start, and a bad end in his response to covid (though that's a bit tougher to judge without any comparison to make except Biden, who also did terrible). His middle two years were pretty average with a couple of high points and low points. I'm struggling to see any high points under Biden. It's just bad.

iluvatar5150 said:

is and how utterly nutty his fanbase is.

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That's a bit strongly worded...are you talking about the January 6th protesters? The political far right in general? Or the entire 74 million people who voted for him in 2020?

iluvatar5150 said:

That wasn’t the case in 2016 when even I thought a lot of his schtick was a put on for the cameras and that, once in office, he’d settle down a bit into something more like what Desantis is now.

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I expected far worse. Honestly, when I consider the fact that he basically had no support from the left on any issues and only tentative support from the right on maybe half the issues....and outright smears from the mainstream media, I'm surprised he had any high points. I would give him a B or B- on foreign policy. Probably a C- overall.

For example...


When you go back and read the left wing or mainstream accounts of this....it's treated like it's nothing. Some mocked him for calling them peace agreements because these nations weren't actively at war. Bahrain and the UAE didn't recognize Israel as a nation....legitimate or otherwise....and that's actually a pretty big thing to formalize diplomatic relations between these nations because it lowers the possibility of war in the future. Then there's this...


A move that wasn't just effective it was efficient...and makes one wonder what prevented this sort of thing under Obama and why we are spending billions upon billions to not fight a war under Biden. Then there's the fact that he continually tried to prevent a crisis on the southern border that started under Obama, was denied to even exist by Democrats under Trump, and actively supported under Biden. I could go on but I think you get the idea...

I mean, we're going on 2.5 years under Biden...and I can't think of any high points. There's no lack of low points...from actively helping international human smuggling organizations by not enforcing any laws that create obstacles for them...to his embarrassing retreat from Afghanistan (compare mainstream media criticism of that to criticism of Trump leaving the Kurds)





For some reason, it's harder to find articles from the week of the withdrawal....maybe you can pull better examples. My point here is really just that if you weren't aware of the rather sudden and dramatic shift of formerly "mostly credible" news outlets to straight propaganda machines for the left...you might think these two events were comparable failures, or that Trump did worse....when in reality they aren't comparable, and Trump did far far better.

Even some of the worst parts of Trump's administration....like his cabinet picks and generally disgraceful behavior....aren't something I would consider improved under Biden. Biden is congratulating himself for finding and appointing people like the bald kleptomaniac gender fluid weirdo in the energy department and the trans surgeon general that's little more than an activist with an overpriced degree and generally a disgrace to their profession.

Does Biden jump on Twitter every 5 minutes and disgrace the presidency by engaging in petty character attacks on people on the left? No....and that's great. Does he stand in front of the press and forget what he's saying, who he's talking to, what he's talking about, and appear to be struggling with cognitive decline (either advanced or rapid)? Yes....yes he does. That may be less important to the voter...but it's basically a green light for all our enemies. I would at least be comforted knowing he has surrounded himself with capable people....but that doesn't seem true either. He picks candidates according to the new racist and sexist beliefs of his party....even his VP appears to have been entirely chosen for qualities unrelated to merit and competency.

I'll agree Trump was a bad president...and I can't think of many positive things about his administration outside of his foreign policy in general. Biden unfortunately was handed a country in multiple crises and he has yet to successfully deal with any of them.

Occams Barber said:

"Protest, take our nation back!"

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He meant his nation.

Not seen anyone mention, but isn't another big issue that it's also ilegal to try to hide things that might influence the election and count as election fraud? though now I think about it, that might have been if he was charged with a federal crime.

loveofourlord said:

Not seen anyone mention, but isn't another big issue that it's also ilegal to try to hide things that might influence the election and count as election fraud? though now I think about it, that might have been if he was charged with a federal crime.

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If you mean just the fact of hiding an affair because knowledge of it might turn off voters, no the hiding is not a crime. (The associated crime issue starts with having someone else do it for you and the associated cash value which is effectively an excessive, and illegally large campaign donation for an individual [Michael Cohen]. Now, if a superPAC paid off Stormy without Trump knowing [avoiding illegal coordination, something that happens *all* the time], then it wouldn't be an illegal campaign contribution.)

Let's wait to see what, if anything, the New York County DA charges.

Occams Barber said:

ABC NEWS(Australia)

Former US president Donald Trump says he expects to be arrested on Tuesday - calls for protest



Former US president Donald Trump has said he expects to be arrested on Tuesday in a case brought by the Manhattan district attorney's office and called on his supporters to protest.

Mr Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network on Saturday that "illegal leaks" from the district attorney's office indicated that he would be taken into custody next week.

"Illegal leaks from a corrupt & highly political Manhattan district attorney's office … indicate that, with no crime being able to be proven … the far & away leading Republican candidate & former president of the United States of America, will be arrested on Tuesday of next week," he wrote.

"Protest, take our nation back!"

He did not say what the charges would be.

A spokesperson for the district attorney's office declined to comment.

Source:
Former US president Donald Trump says he expects to be arrested on Tuesday - ABC News

Will Trump supporters be storming the barricades on Tuesday??? - OB​

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It seems that this bogus announcement was just another, successful fund raising grift.

HeatherCoxRichardson said:

This week, news has been focused on the former president’s possible indictment for paying $130,000 in hush money to adult film performer Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about their 2006 affair before the 2016 election. The information currently being thrown about has been shaped by Trump himself and is obviously suspect (among other things, he has apparently raised $1.5 million since he claimed he would be arrested on Tuesday).

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That’s a problem with regard to business filings and tax fraud. It is also a problem for the campaign finance laws intended to protect clean elections. Cohen’s payment was a contribution to the Trump campaign because it was made “in order to influence the 2016 presidential election.” The payment was intended to make sure voters didn’t hear another sex scandal in October 2016, just after the Access Hollywood tape came out in which Trump talked vulgarly about sexually assaulting women, when it might have hurt his chances at election. The $130,000 contribution was far above the individual limit of $2,700, and the Trump campaign did not disclose it.

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