- Oct 10, 2011
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I'm not talking about chances, or odds, but predictability based on knowing absolutely all of the factors down to even every single atom, or even every sub-atomic particle, etc, and by those being based "in time", which is also predictable, etc...That's most unfortunate as you might have learnt something regarding randomness.
Scientists need to be very careful to not fall for the three card trick of mistaking randomness or statistical noise with a real signal.
For example tossing a coin is an unbiased experiment producing random results.
If we toss the coin once there is 1 in 2 chance of heads, twice a 1 in 4 chance of 2 heads, and ten times a 1 in 1024 chance of 10 heads in a row.
If we tossed the coin ten times and got 10 heads in a row we might start to suspect the experiment is biased but a 1 in 1024 chance are not astronomical odds for being purely random.
Tossing the coin 20 times resulting in 20 heads is a 1 in 1,048,576 chance making it unlikely this is a random occurrence.
Scientists in fields such a particle physics base discoveries on five sigma which is approximately a 1 in 3,500,000 chance of the signal being random and not real.
Anyway, I'm going to bed, been up for a while, and maybe I'm just a little irritable right now, etc, I don't know, etc, and if that is my "reason" that "caused" my "reaction/response", that was fully "predictable", etc, then I do 100% sincerly apologize, ok, etc...
You might be happy to know that I am always learning more however, and will never give up on that ever, etc...
I might be back later, or tomorrow maybe, I don't know yet, etc...
Anyway, goodnight all!
God Bless.
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