Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

Aldebaran said:

Why? Just because they're south African?

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Because it could be something regional that makes it that way we have to be sure it's the same everywhere.

Nithavela said:

All I've seen are quotes from a single south african doctors. That's not strong evidence.

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Actually, in my post #79, some high ranking UK doctors are saying the same thing.

As far as the South African doctors, it would seem they have better sequencing than other places from the looks of it...

Omicron COVID variant was in Europe before South African scientists detected and flagged it to the world

Turns out, Omicron was already in Europe for a few weeks before South African epidemiologists sounded the alarm bells.

...and I would still imagine that high ranking doctors in any developed country would be able to accurately make the distinction between mild and severe cases.

And, as of last night, according to NPR:
So far, there have been no reported deaths linked to the omicron variant.

If it's spreading like wildfire (perhaps even more than delta)... if it's been allowed to circulate in a country with a very low vaccination rate, and still hasn't caused any deaths yet. Safe to say it may not cause as severe of disease as delta?

16 different countries have now identified it's there (some of which being in places where they sequenced the sample after the fact, after South Africa raised the concern - which means it was probably circulating even before that)

If Delta was making it's round in 16 countries for a few weeks, what you place the odds at for there being no deaths caused by it?

It seems as if people are wanting there to be bad news or something.

If it turns out in a few weeks, that the vaccines are still somewhat effective, and the pattern of mild disease doesn't change, there will be some countries with egg on their faces for overreacting and disrupting 6 different African economies.

Aldebaran said:

A widespread outbreak of omicron could be a blessing if it doesn't cause deaths (or very few of them). It would allow people to get natural immunity, and could even spell the end for Covid.

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That's the best outcome, but it's also possible it is so different from delta that immunity to one doesn't do anything for the other which means we'd have two strains co circulating and picking up each others bad habits through recombination. Then there's always the possibility that one causes antibody dependent enhancement of infection of the other, and kills off the people that survived delta.

Aldebaran said:

A widespread outbreak of omicron could be a blessing if it doesn't cause deaths (or very few of them). It would allow people to get natural immunity, and could even spell the end for Covid.

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That's one potential "best case" scenario...and not ruling it out (because I think that would be a pretty good outcome)

The "worst case" scenario is that being left to circulate, unchecked, or in immunocompromised people, could end up being a "new variant factory", and produce one that's not so mild.

The immunocompromised part is the part that could spell disaster (especially in parts of the world where those conditions are more prevalent)
Omicron variant could have emerged from AIDS patient with prolonged Covid, scientists suspect

Omicron: everything you need to know about new Covid variant

Per The Guardian:
The earliest sample showing the variant was collected in Botswana on 11 November. Scientists say that the unusual constellation of mutations suggests it may have emerged during a chronic infection of an immunocompromised person, such as an untreated HIV/Aids patient.

So it's a bit of a grab bag. Without prolonged infection aspects involving immunocompromised people, this new variant could be a "blessing" (if want to consider 2 days of head congestion and fatigue a blessing), or it could be a "curse" if a person with HIV has a chronic infection, allowing it to mutate further.

Thus far, thankfully, there have been no recorded deaths from it...when Delta showed up, it didn't take long to start racking up a bodycount. So I'm optimistically hoping for the former scenario. Which is "not very lethal, but super transmissible", thereby, giving the remaining vaccine holdouts nucleocapsid protein antibodies (the kind that are more broad, that can't be acquired via vaccination, only through natural infection)

Aldebaran said:

Humans are humans, and are affected by the same disease in the same way.

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Well considering you like pointing to outliers and pretend they represent the entire world you would think that, but the rest of us know ti's not that simple.

RestoreTheJoy said:

Woodstock took place in a pandemic. But people were more rational then.

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Fact check: misleading.
Misleading claim: Woodstock took place in the middle of a pandemic

Aldebaran said:

And of course the possibility that the vaccines that are being pushed so hard for protection against omicron won't even work against it. That would likely be the case if infection from omicron didn't give antibody protection against Delta and Alpha.

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Well, that might be a possibility off the list.

COVID: First signs that vaccines protect against Omicron

Depending on your thoughts about Jerusalem Post, obviously.

ThatRobGuy said:

If Delta was making it's round in 16 countries for a few weeks, what you place the odds at for there being no deaths caused by it?

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We don't know if there have been any deaths caused by it. How would we know, apart from the relatively small number of cases of Omicron that have been confirmed? Deaths lag infections by a couple of weeks or more, and the case fatality rate is only around 1% -- or less, if Omicron is primarily spreading among the unvaccinated (and hence younger) population. Which is to say, we just don't know yet. But we do know that hospitalizations are rising in Gauteng, where Omicron is most common.

Covid: Time to consider mandatory vaccines - EU chief - BBC News

Even though I've been jabbed three times and had the flu jab (for the first time) I feel uncomfortable talking about compulsory vaccination. A lot of people I know don't want to be vaccinated and I do empathise. It's a difficult situation.

Tanj said:

Depending on your thoughts about Jerusalem Post, obviously.

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No clue in the article about where the data comes from, unfortunately.

California confirms nation’s first Omicron variant case

The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has made its way to California.

The infected individual returned to the state from South Africa on Nov. 22 and tested positive Monday, federal health officials said. The person was fully vaccinated and experienced mild symptoms that are improving.

Aldebaran said:

Well, it turns out the vaccines don't protect against it, but I expect the official advice to still be "Get vaccinated anyway!":
California has reported the first U.S. case of the omicron variant

"The individual was a traveler who returned from South Africa on November 22," the CDC said in a news release. "The individual, who was fully vaccinated and had mild symptoms that are improving, is self-quarantining and has been since testing positive. All close contacts have been contacted and have tested negative."

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The fully vaccinated person had mild symptoms. Good to know that the vaccine offered "no protection".

Aldebaran said:

Well, it turns out the vaccines don't protect against it, but I expect the official advice to still be "Get vaccinated anyway!":
California has reported the first U.S. case of the omicron variant

"The individual was a traveler who returned from South Africa on November 22," the CDC said in a news release. "The individual, who was fully vaccinated and had mild symptoms that are improving, is self-quarantining and has been since testing positive. All close contacts have been contacted and have tested negative."

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You should think about it in terms of the vaccine protection claims actually being made.

Aldebaran said:

You mean about being 95% effective, or the idea that if you're fully vaccinated, you can "return to normal", or that being vaxxed means you can finally stop wearing a mask?

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Where are public health experts promising those things?