Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

godleadyoursoul said:

The medical system will not collapse. Stop being a drama queen.

Click to expand...

With mitigation it nearly did, moving to the let them die model would put it under even more strain as for some odd reason when faced with death people suddenly trust the medical experts again and go to the ICU.

godleadyoursoul said:

The medical system will not collapse. Stop being a drama queen.

Click to expand...

Dude it already has multiple times in the US, it doesn't have to mean unrecoverable.

Desk trauma said:

With mitigation it nearly did, moving to the let them die model would put it under even more strain as for some odd reason when faced with death people suddenly trust the medical experts again and go to the ICU.

Click to expand...

Well this thing is not going away so I think they're going to have to make a decision on whether this is just how we live now, or do they make plans to go back to "normal". At least if they make a decision we're not all living in limbo waiting for the next announcement all the time.

Seems to me that it's too early to tell.

We saw similar coverage pertaining to the "Mu" variant, and that dropped out of the headlines pretty quick.

Seems to me like this one could go either way.

Either they'll come back in a few weeks and tell us that the vaccines and prior infections still confer a certain level of protection against it, or they'll tell us it doesn't.

And even if it doesn't, the part that I think many people are overlooking in all of the articles discussing it is that the symptoms themselves from the Omicron variant are "very mild" according to all current reports.

So far, from the "boots on the ground" so to speak (the doctors treating it), it's mild, and the symptoms are "sore muscles and feeling tired for a day or two".

Angelique Coetzee, the chair of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), told The Telegraph that so far Omicron cases seem to present with strange but mild symptoms. "Their symptoms were so different and so mild from those I had treated before," she said.

Most of the Omicron patients Coetzee has treated arrived "feeling so tired," making intense fatigue the most consistent symptom that's been reported. On the other hand, none of these patients suffered from loss of taste or smell, which has been one of the tell-tale COVID symptoms up to this point.

Coetzee has stressed that it's too early to make any larger predictions about what an Omicron wave would mean for the world—and if we'll even reach that point. In an interview with The Guardian, she reiterated that the cases she's seen have been mild, but acknowledged that it's too soon to know for sure if that will hold for a broader spectrum of Omicron infections.

"It's all speculation at this stage. It may be it's highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,"

That would follow the pattern of what we know about viruses that become endemic. From an evolutionary standpoint, a virus that wants to survive typically becomes "more contagious, but less lethal"

And based on the tone of the Guardian article, South African health officials are suggesting that other countries in Europe and the US are having a "knee jerk" reaction to it.

ThatRobGuy said:

So far, from the "boots on the ground" so to speak (the doctors treating it), it's mild, and the symptoms are "sore muscles and feeling tired for a day or two".

Angelique Coetzee, the chair of the South African Medical Association (SAMA), told The Telegraph that so far Omicron cases seem to present with strange but mild symptoms. "Their symptoms were so different and so mild from those I had treated before," she said.

Click to expand...

Since only about 100 confirmed Omicron variant cases have been identified in South Africa, the sample size if far too small to start drawing conclusions about whether Omicron is milder or worse or the same as Delta.

With a sample size that small, one might not see any deadly serious cases with any other variant. The age of the patient is much more predictive of the chances for a mild infection than anything else.

Anyone with the most basic knowledge of virology could have predicted this.

LeafByNiggle said:

Since only about 100 confirmed Omicron variant cases have been identified in South Africa, the sample size if far too small to start drawing conclusions about whether Omicron is milder or worse or the same as Delta.

Click to expand...

As I said, it could go either way. But considering that testing protocols are feasible (and already implemented in most places anyway for international travel), I can sympathize with a country like South Africa - that was just doing the right thing, and notifying the international community about something they found - getting dealt a devastating blow dealt to their economy over something that does, in fact, feel like a knee jerk reaction.

As you said, 100 cases. 100 cases, all of which that are mild, in a country with a very low vaccination rate, should be rather encouraging news.

If there were 100 delta cases among a group of 100 people where only 22 of them were vaccinated, what would you place the odds on all 100 cases being mild, only involving fatigue and some muscle soreness, and resolving on their own in a couple days? (especially in a region with sub-par health metrics)

ThatRobGuy said:

As I said, it could go either way.

Click to expand...

I agree with that.

But considering that testing protocols are feasible (and already implemented in most places anyway for international travel), I can sympathize with a country like South Africa - that was just doing the right thing, and notifying the international community about something they found - getting dealt a devastating blow dealt to their economy over something that does, in fact, feel like a knee jerk reaction.

Click to expand...

I agree with that too. It sends a bad message that could discourage other countries from sharing covid data. South Africa has been monitoring and sharing data more that most countries. In fact, Omicron may not have even started in South Africa. It was just detected there first, possibly because South Africa has been doing such a thorough job of testing and sequencing.

As you said, 100 cases. 100 cases, all of which that are mild, in a country with a very low vaccination rate, should be rather encouraging news.

Click to expand...

It is not discouraging news. But beyond that it is too soon to tell.

If there were 100 delta cases among a group of 100 people where only 22 of them were vaccinated, what would you place the odds on all 100 cases being mild..

Click to expand...

I am not an immunologist or a virologist, so my assessment of the odds (and your assessment too) means very little.

godleadyoursoul said:

The medical system will not collapse. Stop being a drama queen.

Click to expand...

That may be a blinkered view. Likely the medical system won't collapse in your state or country but as Christians aren't we called to be concerned for our brothers and sisters beyond our land of birth?

Sarah G said:

That may be a blinkered view. Likely the medical system won't collapse in your state or country but as Christians aren't we called to be concerned for our brothers and sisters beyond our land of birth?

Click to expand...

I do care about brother's and sister's of all continents which is why I believe we need to get back to living sooner than later. All this lock down and uncertainty is not doing anybody's mental health any good, not to mention those who have lost jobs, businesses, etc, and also what does the future look like for the children who are being raised in this world? I see kids around everywhere looking lost.. this whole covid situation will have long term effects for many.

Vaccinations still beat anti-vaccinations.

Even if vaccines only reduce transmission modestly, over and above the infections they prevent, a breakthrough case in a vaccinated individual poses less risk of transmission to others than infection in an unvaccinated and previously uninfected individual.

BBC News - Air passengers test positive for new variant in Netherlands
Air passengers test positive for new variant in Netherlands

This is the breaking news where I am. Now we just need to find the other 5000 people who flew in from southern African countries last week. Hmmm.
Edit: Also turns out that Omicron is an anagram of 'moronic' but we're spelling it Omikron here so jokes on..not us. Yay.

Nithavela said:

Nothing says "everything is fine" like having to store dead bodies in cooling trucks.

Click to expand...

Or people dying because they had to be driven hundreds of miles because none of the hospitals nearby had room.

Some of you are way too hysterical. It's ironic how all of a sudden people care so much about death, yet people were dyting every single day prior to covid, and unless it's somebody close, nobody cares.. I'm not saying we SHOULDN'T care, but we can't just stay in lock down forever, and then what happens when the next pandemic hits? do we just do this all over again? Even the premier where I live is saying we need to live with it and move on.. not that that's what's going to happen of course, but it just shows that at least some high ups know what we should be doing.

godleadyoursoul said:

The medical system will not collapse. Stop being a drama queen.

Click to expand...

Fortunately foolish statements can avoid vituperous condemnation when they arise out of ignorance. It is more difficult to maintain this courtesy when the ignorance is willful. What do you not understand about the explanations multiple members have provided you?

godleadyoursoul said:

Some of you are way too hysterical. It's ironic how all of a sudden people care so much about death, yet people were dyting every single day prior to covid, and unless it's somebody close, nobody cares.. I'm not saying we SHOULDN'T care, but we can't just stay in lock down forever, and then what happens when the next pandemic hits? do we just do this all over again? Even the premier where I live is saying we need to live with it and move on.. not that that's what's going to happen of course, but it just shows that at least some high ups know what we should be doing.

Click to expand...

Get vaccinated, use reasonable precautions and live. The people that die from COVID are primarily the unvaccinated.

ThatRobGuy said:

That would follow the pattern of what we know about viruses that become endemic. From an evolutionary standpoint, a virus that wants to survive typically becomes "more contagious, but less lethal"

Click to expand...

But viruses don't consistently become less lethal on any kind of time scale that's of interest to us. Smallpox didn't. Measles didn't. And SARS-CoV-2 isn't very lethal to start with, so there's little selection pressure currently. So far all of the successful mutations have made it more dangerous, not less. It would be nice if that changed going forward, of course.

LeafByNiggle said:

Since only about 100 confirmed Omicron variant cases have been identified in South Africa, the sample size if far too small to start drawing conclusions about whether Omicron is milder or worse or the same as Delta.

Click to expand...

Yup.

Judging from the rate of spike gene PCR failures in South Africa (which are almost certainly caused by Omicron), we're going to be seeing a lot more confirmed cases soon. This variant has those in the business more concerned than anything that's come along since Delta, but it's too early to say whether it's actually going to be a problem or not. The slew of functional mutations it carries make it potentially pretty bad from an immune-evasion point of view, and its rapid increase in South Africa might reflect a greater transmissibility than even Delta -- which would be quite bad -- but it might not. Instead, it might just reflect major amplification by one or more superspreading events. The phylogenetic tree of the samples that have been sequenced so far suggests that superspreading has played a role, but more data is needed. And yeah, we don't know what it will be like clinically.

In any case, it's certainly getting a lot of attention from experts.