Israel defeating COVID

Aussie Pete · Nov 1, 2021

HonestReporting | Rebuilding Trust in Media

With 41 percent fewer new coronavirus cases being registered per day compared to two months ago, Israel has recorded the biggest drop in COVID-19 morbidity in the world. Only 651 cases were diagnosed last Thursday, compared to an average of between 5,000 to 6,000 daily infections in August. According to the Health Ministry, the number of active COVID-19 cases stood at 9,354 on Friday morning, dipping below the 10,000 mark for the first time in more than three months.

The drop in morbidity has led health officials to estimate that the fourth wave of the pandemic, driven by the highly contagious delta variant, is definitively over in Israel, allowing for the relaxation of travel restrictions.

The achievement has been chalked up to the Jewish state’s vaccination campaign, including the rollout of a booster dose that has been administered to nearly 4,000,000 Israelis.

Nithavela · Nov 1, 2021

How often has Covid-19 been defeated? I lost count.

Aussie Pete · Nov 1, 2021

Nithavela said:
How often has Covid-19 been defeated? I lost count.

The Delta variant made a mess of many claims. However, I posted this because of the conspiracy theorist claims that Israelis are dying like flies from vaccines. In a nation as small as Israel, if the claim were true, it would be impossible to hide.

JustSomeBloke · Nov 1, 2021

According to news reports, Israel began its booster programme on 1st August 2021.

This is the worldometer data for Israel:

JustSomeBloke · Nov 1, 2021

For comparison purposes, the previous round of vaccinations in Israel commenced on 20th Dec 2020

JustSomeBloke · Nov 1, 2021

If we look at the vaccinations data for Israel, we can see that the knee of the percentage vaccinated curve occurs at around 1st April. Therefore, we can deduce that the first round of vaccinations ran from 20th December 2020, to approximately 1st April 2021.

We can then compare the position and duration of the 20th December 2020 to 1st April 2021 vaccination programme to the data I previously posted.

Nithavela · Nov 1, 2021

JustSomeBloke said:
If we look at the vaccinations data for Israel, we can see that the knee of the percentage vaccinated curve occurs at around 1st April. Therefore, we can deduce that the first round of vaccinations ran from 20th December 2020, to approximately 1st April 2021.

View attachment 307925

We can then compare the position and duration of the 20th December 2020 to 1st April 2021 vaccination programme to the data I previously posted.

View attachment 307930

While correlation isn't causation, that timeframe correlates with the turning point of daily deaths, which peaked in mid-January.

Of course, there were other factors like lockdowns, people voluntarily pulling back from social life, and of course a lot of infections probably happened around the holidays like Hannukah or New Years Eve, which would result in an increase in deaths about 1 month later.

In summary, I'm not sure if you are trying to make a point here.

SuperCow · Nov 1, 2021

Maybe the delta variant should be called COVID-20?

anna ~ grace · Nov 1, 2021

Nithavela said:
While correlation isn't causation…

With all due respect… this phrase seems to be dragged out whenever data is presented which seems to point away from the narrative that vaccines are definitely helping very, very well.

The same argument is not dragged out by the same people when data is shown which seems to indicate that the vaccines are hugely successful.

Nithavela · Nov 1, 2021

anna ~ grace said:
With all due respect… this phrase seems to be dragged out whenever data is presented which seems to point away from the narrative that vaccines are definitely helping very, very well.

The same argument is not dragged out by the same people when data is shown which seems to indicate that the vaccines are hugely successful.

In this case, the data presented points to the vaccines working. If you had read the rest of my post, that might have been clearer to you.

Bob Crowley · Nov 1, 2021

I think the lesson is clear - to be effective we'll need the booster injection, possibly more than once, maybe even annually if Covid becomes entrenched.

whatbogsends · Nov 1, 2021

Aussie Pete said:
HonestReporting | Rebuilding Trust in Media

With 41 percent fewer new coronavirus cases being registered per day compared to two months ago, Israel has recorded the biggest drop in COVID-19 morbidity in the world. Only 651 cases were diagnosed last Thursday, compared to an average of between 5,000 to 6,000 daily infections in August. According to the Health Ministry, the number of active COVID-19 cases stood at 9,354 on Friday morning, dipping below the 10,000 mark for the first time in more than three months.

The drop in morbidity has led health officials to estimate that the fourth wave of the pandemic, driven by the highly contagious delta variant, is definitively over in Israel, allowing for the relaxation of travel restrictions.

The achievement has been chalked up to the Jewish state’s vaccination campaign, including the rollout of a booster dose that has been administered to nearly 4,000,000 Israelis.

If we're going by a drop in rates of new cases, Israel also defeated Covid in April 2021. Then, they had their highest rate of spread in September 2021.

Israel COVID: 1,327,720 Cases and 8,100 Deaths - Worldometer

Covid comes and goes in waves. Claiming success after a wave is like claiming you defeated the sun shortly after sunset.

trophy33 · Nov 1, 2021

In the UK, about 90% of adults had at least a single jab:
Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?

However, their daily deaths and daily new cases are even worse than one year before:
United Kingdom COVID: 9,057,629 Cases and 140,632 Deaths - Worldometer

So, its not about winning or defeating COVID. As @whatbogsends said, its just about various waves. At one moment some country is best, one month later the same country is the worst in COVID.

So far, there is no proved way of how to defeat it except of being of a generally good health and have a strong immunity. Or winning in a genetic lottery.

trophy33 · Nov 1, 2021

Bob Crowley said:
I think the lesson is clear - to be effective we'll need the booster injection, possibly more than once, maybe even annually if Covid becomes entrenched.

Or maybe even every three months. Old people did not have any antibodies when tested several months after being vaccinated.

Aussie Pete · Nov 1, 2021

myst33 said:
In the UK, about 90% of adults had at least a single jab:
Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?

However, their daily deaths and daily new cases are even worse than one year before:
United Kingdom COVID: 9,057,629 Cases and 140,632 Deaths - Worldometer

So, its not about winning or defeating COVID. As @whatbogsends said, its just about various waves. At one moment some country is best, one month later the same country is the worst in COVID.

So far, there is no proved way of how to defeat it except of being of a generally good health and have a strong immunity. Or winning in a genetic lottery.

Or being vaccinated. You forgot that.

Where did you get 90%. It's actually 68% and the country has opened up. Too early, many might say.

trophy33 · Nov 1, 2021

Aussie Pete said:
Or being vaccinated. You forgot that.

Vaccinated people are in intensive care units too. And the current problem also is that antibodies in old people after vaccination quickly disappear (after several months). They are now told to get the third jab.

So it only lowers the risk, its not a defeat of covid. If somebody is morbidly obese (which is common in western countries) or has severe health problems (which is common in old people), current vaccination does not seem to be a salvation.

And both new daily cases and new daily deaths in vaccinated UK are higher than last year.

Aussie Pete said:
Where did you get 90%. It's actually 68% and the country has opened up. Too early, many might say.

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?
"With almost nine in 10 of those aged 12 or over having had a single jab and almost eight in 10 having had a second, the country is now running an autumn booster campaign."

That Guy 11200 · Nov 2, 2021

myst33 said:
Vaccinated people are in intensive care units too. And the current problem also is that antibodies in old people after vaccination quickly disappear (after several months). They are now told to get the third jab.

So it only lowers the risk, its not a defeat of covid. If somebody is morbidly obese (which is common in western countries) or has severe health problems (which is common in old people), current vaccination does not seem to be a salvation.

And both new daily cases and new daily deaths in vaccinated UK are higher than last year.

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?
"With almost nine in 10 of those aged 12 or over having had a single jab and almost eight in 10 having had a second, the country is now running an autumn booster campaign."

Unfortunately, our immune systems tend to weaken as we age, which is why it's still important to maintain social distancing, wear a mask and keep other people in mind in our day to day activities.

Of course, most people seem to have an "I'm alright Jack" attitude once they're vaccinated.

Aussie Pete · Nov 2, 2021

myst33 said:
Vaccinated people are in intensive care units too. And the current problem also is that antibodies in old people after vaccination quickly disappear (after several months). They are now told to get the third jab.

So it only lowers the risk, its not a defeat of covid. If somebody is morbidly obese (which is common in western countries) or has severe health problems (which is common in old people), current vaccination does not seem to be a salvation.

And both new daily cases and new daily deaths in vaccinated UK are higher than last year.

Covid vaccine: How many people are vaccinated in the UK?
"With almost nine in 10 of those aged 12 or over having had a single jab and almost eight in 10 having had a second, the country is now running an autumn booster campaign."

I found different statistics. I'm glad mine were out of date!
Statistics are tricky. If 100% of people are vaccinated then 100% of COVID deaths are vaccinated people. So plainly the percentage of COVID deaths will increase among the vaccinated. The figure to look at is the death rate prior to vaccination becoming available. That's not so easy as other factors can be involved, including protective measures. I can say that pre-vaccine 800 people died in Victoria, where I live. About 350 have died in the period since. Very few hospital cases have been fully vaccinated and only a small percentage of them are in ICU. A smaller percentage still have died.

Morbid obesity is a death risk on its own. One effect of COVID restrictions is that flu has been suppressed also. Flu kills a lot of people each year. And the obese and aged are the riskiest demographic. Older people generally have less active immune systems.

Another factor is the Delta variant that is more contagious. More cases, more potential deaths. It seems bleedingly obvious to me that vaccination is working, even if not 100% and with some setbacks. The efficacy of the vaccines is published information and no one (as far as I know) is claiming 100%.

What's the alternative? Let everyone catch it and play the COVID roulette? How many deaths are acceptable to gain herd immunity? I suppose its a way of ridding society of old people. I happen to be one. I prefer not to die in ICU, totally alone, on a ventilator.

trophy33 · Nov 3, 2021

Aussie Pete said:
It seems bleedingly obvious to me that vaccination is working, even if not 100% and with some setbacks.

It seems to lower the risk, but winter is yet to come. Right now, rates of new cases and deaths do not look too promising, even when most of population is vaccinated. As you said, it mutates and people need to get more and more jabs for it to be effective. Its all still very new and situtation is changing quickly.

Aussie Pete said:
What's the alternative? Let everyone catch it and play the COVID roulette? How many deaths are acceptable to gain herd immunity? I suppose its a way of ridding society of old people. I happen to be one. I prefer not to die in ICU, totally alone, on a ventilator.

The only alternative I can think of is to keep oneself in a great shape and have a healthy life style the whole life. And to take some supplements, for example - we have low levels of D3, here in Central Europe, so it helps to suplement it.

Its also not a 100% certainity one will not have covid complications (some young sportsmen with great health and condition died because of covid too, having the genetics exceptionally prone to covid), but the overal health before catching covid seems to be the main lowering factor of the risk.

And social distancing, so that one does not catch too much of the virus and the immunity will have a chance to defeat it.
Social distancing is practically the only thing that works 100%. If somebody can work from home/remotely, order food and take walks in nature alone, he effectively self-isolated himself from the risk.

trophy33 · Nov 3, 2021

Aussie Pete said:
Very few hospital cases have been fully vaccinated and only a small percentage of them are in ICU. A smaller percentage still have died.

Here we currently have 51% of vaccinated and 49% of not vaccinated old people on ICU, but 80% of old people are vaccinated, so it really seems to lower the risk several times. (20% of unvaccinated old people make 49% of ICU).

Aussie Pete said:
One effect of COVID restrictions is that flu has been suppressed also. Flu kills a lot of people each year.

Except for children. Because schools were practically closed last year, we now have a pandemic of flu and other respiratory problems between children, after the scools were open. Doctors say that these children have underdeveloped immunity, because of isolation.

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